Posted on 01/12/2012 8:29:04 AM PST by Qbert
While South Carolina looks like a toss-up, according to the latest Insider Advantage poll, Florida looks like it could become a rout. The latest Rasmussen poll shows Mitt Romney with a bigger lead than he had in New Hampshire, beating Newt Gingrich by 22 points in a state that could spell the effective end of the primary:
Mitt Romney is now running away with the race in the latest Rasmussen Reports’ survey of the end-of-the-month Florida Republican Primary.
Coming off his decisive win in Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary, Romney earns 41% support with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich a distant second at 19%. A new telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters finds former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum running third with 15% of the vote.Texas Congressman Ron Paul and former Utah Governor Jon Hunstman are next with nine percent (9%) and five percent (5%) support respectively. The two men finished second and third in New Hampshire where independents are allowed to vote in the primary. The Florida primary is open to Republican voters only. Texas Governor Rick Perry runs dead last among primary voters in the Sunshine State with two percent (2%) support. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.
A loss in South Carolina might soften up that lead a bit for Romney, but that would have to be a very large tumble to lose the state. His opponents would have to win back huge chunks of demographics, including an 18-point lead among men and a 28-point lead among women, where Gingrich and Santorum tie at 16% to Romney’s near-majority 44%. Romney even gets the edge among very conservative voters, 29/26 over Santorum with Gingrich at 25%, but wins a majority of “somewhat conservative” voters at 53%, with Gingrich in second at 16%.
Nor is Gingrich likely to make a charge in Florida, according to favorability numbers in this poll os 750 likely GOP primary voters. He has a respectable 59/37 rating, but Romney’s is 76/21, with his 32% “very favorable” eleven points better than Gingrich’s. Perry has cratered in Florida, with a 43/52 favorability rating, which still beats both Paul (33/64) and Huntsman (34/51). Only Santorum challenges Romney in this measure with a 61/29 rating, but only 8% see him as the strongest candidate to challenge Obama, while a majority of 55% say that about Romney. Almost eight in ten expect Romney to win the nomination, and 87% believe that the likely Republican nominee is at least somewhat likely to beat Obama in November.
Assuming Romney wins in South Carolina, a win in Florida is almost assured. With numbers like this, don’t be surprised to see more GOP figures lining up behind Romney in an attempt to unify the party early and aim its rhetorical guns at Team Obama. That might be why John Bolton endorsed Romney late yesterday:
John Bolton, George W. Bush’s controversial Ambassador to the United Nations, will endorse Mitt Romney tonight, a Romney supporter told BuzzFeed.Bolton tweeted earlier this evening that he plans to make a major announcement on Fox News’s “On the Record with Greta Van Susteren.”
And while Jim DeMint has been careful to remain neutral, his advisors are climbing aboard Team Mitt, too:
A group of loyalists to South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint – including a top fundraiser for Rick Perry – will publicly endorse Mitt Romney’s presidential bid on Thursday, a source confirmed to CNN.Former South Carolina GOP Chairman Barry Wynn, Columbia businessman and fundraiser Peter Brown, and Columbia attorney Kevin Hall will announce their support for Romney Thursday.
Wynn’s move to Romney is striking. The Spartanburg financial adviser is a member of Perry’s finance team and traveled to Texas in August to meet privately with the governor before he announced his bid.
Jeb Bush will probably wait for South Carolina to vote, but I’d bet that he will endorse Romney shortly afterward.
correction and I live here
South FL is like the north but the north FL is still the old south.
Don’t think that all of FL is not the south, we’re on the edge of the bible belt up here in NE, NW FL
Rick Santorum Interview with S.E. Cupp (starts about 6 minutes into video)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbBIusiRdGg
Because he’s the only conservative in the race that has actual experience, has been in the military, and is a strong social conservative?
you think this is real
FOX had another poll just over an hour before this showing Perry with 5%, Rino just a couple of points in front of Newt and Rick.
When I added them up Rino boy was losing over 20 points.
Only a fool would trust FOX and the polls right now seeing as they are pushing their liberal pro homo, pro cross dressing, tax paying planned parenthood boy.
I’ll happily admit I’m wrong, if you’ll do the same if Santorum beats Newt in SC.
Deal?
I don’t get why you mentioned Todd Palin’s endorsement of NEwt, along with Bolton’s endorsement of Romney, as both helping Romney.
People need to take note; at this point it’s pointless to obsess on Perry dropping out or whatever he does...notice the true, significant numerical split is between Gingrich and Santorum. They are almost evenly splitting it. Perry is barely registering.
Now he is making some noise, getting his points out, participating in the free for all, yes, but in actual votes...according to polls and so far in Iowa and NH, he’s so far down the list he isn’t impacting it votewise. If he actually finishes very low in SC, would people STILL obsess that he should get out and throw his support to another? What difference would that make, until he pulls enough to become a significant factor??
Also, you cannot make Perry supporters choose either your chosen candidate or choose the one Perry might endorse. These people are not going to follow anyone’s dictates, even his. Nor, if Perry got out, could he make Santorum or Newt get out.
Right now he’s making his points and they are points that need to be made. In most instances they are in the right direction on the right agenda.
And he doesn’t back down, if you’ll notice.
I pray he gets going in SC and FL, but if not, one thing he can always say is, people and businesses, come to Texas. I tried to get the Texas Way to become America’s way, but I was passed over in favor of others. But Texas is still here and I’m still here, ya’ll come on down.
Someone on Twitter said Newt has a new web ad out dubbed “The French Connection”.
I cannot find it. Anyone seen it? have a link?
Thanks in advance.
“I’ll happily admit I’m wrong, if you’ll do the same if Santorum beats Newt in SC.Deal?”
I’ve already gone beyond that and stated that I will support the conservative winner out of SC, whether it be Gingrich or Santorum....so sure, Deal.
Frankly, It’s the only way conservatives can win.
Of Gingrich, Santorum and Perry, two of them should not just drop out and endorse whoever comes out ahead in SC, but actively to on the stump for him in FL, even if it takes the leading non-Romney offering the Vice-Presidency to one and the choice of cabinet posts and ambassadorships to the other to accomplish this.
Thank you very much. I will call that OPEN. It’s not restricted to registered Republicans.
"There was a primary where Gerald Ford and Reagan were competing for the top spot. I don’t have all the numbers, but Ford won I believe the first 5 states. Reagan won the next two. Ford won the next two. Then Reagan started a rout. So, while it looks great for Romney, nothing is locked up yet. Mark Levin spoke of this yesterday and it was brilliant."
Agree- I don't think Romney is "inevitable" by any stretch of the imagination- his numbers just don't show that. But there is a key distinction between Reagan in '76 and what we have currently: he was one candidate; we have essentially three attempting this feat.
My sentiments too and why in the heck does a party in whatever state allow Dems and Indies to vote? I don't get it.
we have a closed primary the first one to do so but Paul and Rino seem to look at absentee votes instead ,mmmmmmmmmmm
Why is that?
Is it because we have to show photo ID here and have a closed primary but absentee those snow bird yankees can use their vacation addresses and dead people to vote absentee.
I think so just like NH had people coming from TX to vote in place of a dead person.
You be the judge of who they might have voted for.
we have a closed primary the first one to do so but Paul and Rino seem to look at absentee votes instead ,mmmmmmmmmmm
Why is that?
Is it because we have to show photo ID here and have a closed primary but absentee those snow bird yankees can use their vacation addresses and dead people to vote absentee.
I think so just like NH had people coming from TX to vote in place of a dead person.
You be the judge of who they might have voted for.
we have a closed primary the first one to do so but Paul and Rino seem to look at absentee votes instead ,mmmmmmmmmmm
Why is that?
Is it because we have to show photo ID here and have a closed primary but absentee those snow bird yankees can use their vacation addresses and dead people to vote absentee.
I think so just like NH had people coming from TX to vote in place of a dead person.
You be the judge of who they might have voted for.
This makes me sick. Does the 41% want to save the country or not?
If we are going to stop Romney then it has to be in South Carolina. From the polls it looks like Newt is the only one that has that chance. In South Carolina we need to support Newt. GO NEWT!
I know that Bolton endorsed Romney, but Todd Palin endorsed Gingrich. How does that help Romney?
been saying the same thing for some time.
we are not in that circle of politics but by hell we can see it so why can;t they put their ego’s aside and stop Romney
What better way to hurt Rino then combine the conservative vote and that slaps Rino right int he face for ignoring us and thinking we will just follow along.
Beats head against wall...
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