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InsiderAdvantage Poll (FL): Gingrich Surging, Race 'Tighter Than Expected'
Newsmax ^ | 1-29-2012 | Staff

Posted on 01/29/2012 8:05:02 PM PST by TitansAFC

A new InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sunday night of likely Republican voters in the state of Florida shows a significant surge for Newt Gingrich.

The poll has Mitt Romney leading with 36 percent of voters, followed by Gingrich at 31 percent.

The Sunday results of 646 likely GOP voters are as follows: Romney 36 percent Gingrich 31 percent Santorum 12 percent Paul 12 percent Other/Undecided 9 percent "The race will be tighter than expected," Matt Towery, chief pollster of InsiderAdvantage told Newsmax.

Towery noted that his poll showed a surge for Romney on Wednesday, with him leading Gingrich by 8 points. The InsiderAdvantage poll was among the first to show Romney's resurgence after his dismal showing in the S. Carolina primary.

The InsiderAdvantage poll was also the first to show Gingrich's rise in S. Carolina and accurately forecast his win there.

"The trend is favoring Gingrich," Towery said, noting that while Romney's lead was still outside the margin of error of 3.8 percent, "It's not by much.".........

(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; florida; gingrich; newt; romney; santorum
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To: Proudcongal

Romney held a 12-point lead among those who had already voted, and an 11-point lead among those who had not yet voted.

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online surveys, but this poll of 903 likely voters has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Saturday’s Reuters/Ipsos survey is the second of four daily tracking polls being released ahead of Tuesday’s Florida primary.

COmments by ez...The Reutera poll includes data from Thurs and Fri. The latest PPP, Sat. Sun and this Insider Advantage poll, Sun only. Looks like there is a backlash forming against “Black Thursday.”


81 posted on 01/29/2012 8:44:41 PM PST by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.)
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To: hoosiermama
"romney has spent over sixteen million,"

How many millions of Romneys own money did he spend and he couldn't even beat McCain.

The fact is the insiders decided it was McCains turn just like they had decided it was Doles turn. Now it is Romney's turn. I think WE THE PEOPLE have finally caught onto their tactics and ARE NOT going to let it happen again.

I chuckle when some people on this site say Romney will get the nomination because people vote for the handsome one. Well I don't think McCain was handsomer then Romney. And I sure don't think Ronmey is handsomer than Newt.

GO NEWT!

82 posted on 01/29/2012 8:45:47 PM PST by Spunky (Sarah Palin on Polls "Poles are for Strippers and Cross Country Skiers")
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Comment #83 Removed by Moderator

To: leapfrog0202; dandiegirl

The one exception is Greta who has been being balanced. I look forward to watching her each night.

Her bus tour with Newt was the Newtron Bomb.


84 posted on 01/29/2012 8:48:37 PM PST by bondserv (Regarding Mitt Romney: I could not warm up to this guy if we were cremated together.)
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To: CaptainKrunch
Unfortunately, Santorum has GOT to be believing that he's still got a decent chance because of his win in Iowa.

Delusional. He campaigned in IA for a year.

85 posted on 01/29/2012 8:48:51 PM PST by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.)
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To: bondserv
The RCP average just before the primary only had Gingrich +5, he won by 12.6%. That's a pretty large miss in my book.

I would add that RCP had Mitt up by +8 and +10.3 three and four days before SC. And as you pointed out Newt won by +12.6.

So to conclude about RCP predictive capabilities, they were 23 points off four days before SC.

86 posted on 01/29/2012 8:48:54 PM PST by FreeReign
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To: ez

Here is your answer on polls.

SurveyUSA - Romney +15 (data through 1/29 ;today)
Rasmussen = Romney +16 (data through 1/28 ; saturday)
PPP - Romney +8 (data through 1/28 ; saturday)
NBC/Marist - Romney +15 (data through 1/26 ; thursday)
Mason Dixon = Romney +11 (data through 1/26 ; thursday)
(several others through 1/26, showing Romney +11 or so)

I am not sure what surge IA is seeing. Their poll posted on 1/26 (with data through 1/25), showed it Romney +8, about the same as what the OP showed. Big difference between the IA poll and Survey USA which both did surveys today.

I usually try to look at the trends and also what the candidates are saying and doing. The fact the Newt said he was staying in this to the end, regardless of what happens in Florida is kind of telling to me.

But hey, this has been a volatile race, with wild swings in short amounts of times. I wouldn’t bet on anything at this point. Personally, I don’t think Romney will win by double digits as most of the recent polls are showing. But unfortunately, I do believe Romney will win in the 5-7 point range.


87 posted on 01/29/2012 8:49:42 PM PST by gswilder
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To: ez

How many are undecided?


88 posted on 01/29/2012 8:49:53 PM PST by jennychase
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To: bondserv
Towery said Gingrich is doing "substantially better" with men than Romney, 38 to 28, but the former House Speaker still faces a "gender gap," as women are still favoring Romney.

Gentlemen, there is more work to be done here.

89 posted on 01/29/2012 8:51:04 PM PST by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.)
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To: Spunky

Newt’s a dog.

But he’s our dog!

Go Newt!


90 posted on 01/29/2012 8:52:12 PM PST by stanne
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To: Qwackertoo
Come on FL . . . Vote NEWT!!!!

I just sent another email to everyone my address book (those living in FL and elsewhere). I have asked them contact anyone they know in FL and encourage them to vote for Newt.

Equally important, I have implored them to also ask anyone they contact in FL to please contact everyone they know and encourage them to vote for Newt.

We need to do all we can to stop Mitt.

91 posted on 01/29/2012 8:52:15 PM PST by sand88 (Hey Rove et al, I will, with great pleasure, NOT cast a vote for the Statist Mitt.)
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To: ez

How many women really go out and vote?


92 posted on 01/29/2012 8:52:27 PM PST by jennychase
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To: FReepers; All
Click


100,000 phone calls needed. And twitter, facebook... Please go to Newt.org for more info on how to help.
GO NEWT!
GO FREE REPUBLIC!!!
Most important election in our lifetime… Can you imagine if he (Obama) is re-elected how radical he will be?

93 posted on 01/29/2012 8:53:06 PM PST by RedMDer (Forward With Confidence!)
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To: ConfidentConservative

BINGO


94 posted on 01/29/2012 8:53:23 PM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life is tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: ez
Towery said Gingrich is doing "substantially better" with men than Romney, 38 to 28, but the former House Speaker still faces a "gender gap," as women are still favoring Romney.

Gentlemen, there is more work to be done here.

Maybe if we persuade George Clooney and Brad Pitt to switch to Republican and endorse Newt. :-)

95 posted on 01/29/2012 8:53:43 PM PST by bondserv (Regarding Mitt Romney: I could not warm up to this guy if we were cremated together.)
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To: Parley Baer

Somebody explain how Santorum can drop out after early voting has begun


96 posted on 01/29/2012 8:55:01 PM PST by stanne
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To: gswilder

Turn out will be the key. Sometimes when one is predicted to win by large margin some of the voters stay home. Since this is mostly just negatives about newt and not why one should vote for Romney there is a good chance many will just sit at home without someone to vote FOR. Especially if they think newt can’t win—so what’s the harm in staying at home?

But if Newt can get the tea party on their feet he could steal this.


97 posted on 01/29/2012 8:55:11 PM PST by for-q-clinton (If at first you don't succeed keep on sucking until you do succeed)
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To: ez
women are still favoring Romney.

Of course they are. Women are just as likely to think with their ovaries as men are with their.. uh 'heads'. Makes total sense. To be fair however, Newt's alleged infidelity may also be a contributing factor.

98 posted on 01/29/2012 8:55:11 PM PST by libh8er
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To: libh8er
Rush can definitely help tomorrow — if he chooses to.

I have listened to Rush forever and love him. But it will be a cold day in Hell before he puts his neck on the line and endorse Newt. It will not happen.

I turned Rush off a few times last week. I expect him to be a severe disappointment on Monday.

99 posted on 01/29/2012 8:56:56 PM PST by sand88 (Hey Rove et al, I will, with great pleasure, NOT cast a vote for the Statist Mitt.)
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To: true believer forever

I posted the info to your question below on polls. You can go to real clear politics and get a listing of every public poll that has been released.

As far as me? I was hoping for Sarah, but when she bowed out, I supported Perry. Unfortunately, I am in a late voting primary state, so it may be decided before I get my chance. But in the end, I will vote for the republican nominee over Obama, regardless.


100 posted on 01/29/2012 8:57:12 PM PST by gswilder
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