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Final PPP Poll- Our final Florida numbers: Romney 39, Gingrich 31, Santorum 15, Paul 11:
Twitter ^ | January 31, 2012 | Public Policy Polling

Posted on 01/30/2012 7:52:53 PM PST by georgiagirl_pam

Their last few Tweets: Our final Florida numbers: Romney 39, Gingrich 31, Santorum 15, Paul 11 Mitt's up 45-32 with those who have already voted in Florida, about a third of the electorate: Newt has to win election day voters by 6-8 to pull upset, but Mitt up 36-30 with ppl who plan to vote tmrw Mitt up big with all his core groups in FL- 39 pt lead with moderates, 12 with seniors, 12 with women Newt only winning his core groups by single digits- 8 pts with Tea Party, 6 with Evangelicals. Not enough


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: florida; newt
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Well, this is their last poll. They were pretty accurate in South Carolina BUT notice that it says "Newt has to win election day voters by 6-8 to pull upset, but Mitt up 36-30 with ppl who plan to vote tmrw" But that doesn't mean that he can't do it! With God's help he CAN pull this off! Go Newt!
1 posted on 01/30/2012 7:53:06 PM PST by georgiagirl_pam
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To: georgiagirl_pam

PPP: “Progressive progressive progressive”.


2 posted on 01/30/2012 7:54:49 PM PST by Cringing Negativism Network (Escape the Rino preserve!)
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To: georgiagirl_pam

Get out the vote Tea Party Patriots in FL!


3 posted on 01/30/2012 7:59:34 PM PST by Hotlanta Mike (TeaNami)
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Hang in there, Rick. You’re closing in on that VP spot...


4 posted on 01/30/2012 8:01:32 PM PST by Gene Eric (C'mon, Virginia -- are you with us or against us?!)
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To: georgiagirl_pam

Gotta love the fact that Gingrich + Santorum = 46%.

Sigh.


5 posted on 01/30/2012 8:02:14 PM PST by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State | Gingrich 2012)
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To: georgiagirl_pam
Newt may very well have won Florida if Santorum got out and endorsed Newt
6 posted on 01/30/2012 8:04:00 PM PST by katiedidit1 ("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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To: Utmost Certainty

Santorum needs to drop out. He doesn’t have a chance to win at this point. At least not in Florida. Since it’s winner take all he should at least encourage his people to vote for Newt in Florida...and Newt can recommend Santorum in states that Newt didn’t get on the ballot but Santorum did.


7 posted on 01/30/2012 8:06:05 PM PST by for-q-clinton (If at first you don't succeed keep on sucking until you do succeed)
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To: georgiagirl_pam
Mitt's up 45-32 with those who have already voted in Florida, about a third of the electorate:

Shows how uniformed the voters are

All those ads about the House Ethics problems did their job and yet the truth has been out for years .

MSM knew it and said diddly

GOP elites know it and kept silent

This has been the most unethical ad campaign I have witnessed

Newt's PAC better have ads ready for the next state pointing Romney's blatant lies
8 posted on 01/30/2012 8:07:43 PM PST by uncbob
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To: georgiagirl_pam
****DISCLAIMER: the inevitable “unexpected surge” not accounted for....
9 posted on 01/30/2012 8:08:15 PM PST by M-cubed
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To: georgiagirl_pam; All

Newt was down at one point in SC 18 points and won by 12. That’s a 30 point turn around. He can do it.

We would not be in this mess if he’d been on his game in tht last Debate.


10 posted on 01/30/2012 8:12:49 PM PST by no dems (I'm more concerned with America's future than I am Newt's past.)
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To: georgiagirl_pam

Does anyone remember that IIRC Florida is penalized half their delegates b/c they are having the primary early? If Mittens wins he gets 25 delegates not 50.


11 posted on 01/30/2012 8:12:52 PM PST by Snoopers-868th
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To: georgiagirl_pam

I don’t believe this poll....

I think their tied or REAL close....

We’ll see tomorrow night.

Can anyone tell me WHY 200,000 people vote early and what is their reasoning?


12 posted on 01/30/2012 8:13:06 PM PST by No!
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To: georgiagirl_pam

Ode to the Grand Olde Party, and their BFF, the Obamanator.

When Newt or Paul rocks the GOP Establishment Boat,
The GOP oarsmen pull knives from their boots.
The hacking and slashing puts extreme fighting to shame,
Never, no NEVER rock the GOP Establishment Boat!
They cannot win elections, by choice of their suits,
A RINO Nominee is a Democrat, - - - - one and the same.

Two Party as One Party is what they adore.
“Never give voters a choice,” ( or politicians
Are out of life-time jobs, - - forever more).

As we pay our bills holding our noses as we vote,
The Obamanator holds his cold, steel knife
To America’s throat - - - - .


13 posted on 01/30/2012 8:15:30 PM PST by Graewoulf (( obama"care" violates the 1890 Sherman Anti-Trust Law, AND is illegal by the U.S. Constitution.))
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To: for-q-clinton

I’m not attacking you. But I live in Miss. Why the hell should me or anybody else in the other states accept the candidates chosen by four states? In my opinion the demoncrats are commies and the pubs are liberal progressives.


14 posted on 01/30/2012 8:21:48 PM PST by logitech
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To: Snoopers-868th

they have 99 so whoever wins gets 50.


15 posted on 01/30/2012 8:23:48 PM PST by Qwackertoo (Gingrich/West 2012)
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To: WXRGina

ping


16 posted on 01/30/2012 8:25:58 PM PST by logitech
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To: no dems

Doesn’t look good.

I posted a comment on my FB page to my FL friends what they planned to do tomorrow. These are mostly people with either Evangelical backgrounds (I went to Christian School) or current/prior Military.

It’s 9 votes Romney, 2 Santorum, 1 Gingrich.

A couple of the Romney people supported Huckabee back in 2008 and have said they biggest factor for them was “Electability”. Another is one of my former troops who is now a prominent Orlando Businessman that was leaning Gingrich earlier this week, but is now voting Romney. Only one of my former teachers so far is going for Gingrich.

The Romney votes are quite alarming. I can assure you these people aren’t moderate/liberal/RINO’s etc, but they are being suckered into the whole electability argument.

So I posted this article from Slate and asked them to change the names from 2004 to the players in 2012. This article could have been written this month, but it was written 8 years ago.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/ballot_box/2004/02/kerried_away.html


17 posted on 01/30/2012 8:33:49 PM PST by parksstp (Articulate Conservatives look for Converts. RINO's look for Democrat Heretics.)
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To: katiedidit1
Newt may very well have won Florida if Santorum got out and endorsed Newt

Early on I liked Santorum but watching him in the debates, especially the last two, I see him as a nasty, spiteful, little man with grandiose, unrealistic expectations.

If he loved this country and had any self respect, he'd have bailed out after SC and back Gingrich the way Perry did.

BTW, where's Bachmann? Working for Romney writing lying Gingrich hit pieces?

18 posted on 01/30/2012 8:35:45 PM PST by Cobra64 (Common sense isn't common anymore.)
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To: georgiagirl_pam

I believe PPP’s final SC poll was Newt up by 6.

He won by 14.

Apply that to the last FL poll by PPP.


19 posted on 01/30/2012 8:42:33 PM PST by Free Vulcan (Election 2012 - America stands or falls. No more excuses. Get involved.)
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To: georgiagirl_pam

Why were S.C. evangelicals so bothered by Mittens’ Mormonism, but FL ones seem to not care about it?


20 posted on 01/30/2012 8:48:17 PM PST by montag813
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To: uncbob

“Mitt’s up 45-32 with those who have already voted in Florida, about a third of the electorate:

Shows how uniformed the voters are

All those ads about the House Ethics problems did their job and yet the truth has been out for years .

MSM knew it and said diddly

GOP elites know it and kept silent

This has been the most unethical ad campaign I have witnessed

Newt’s PAC better have ads ready for the next state pointing Romney’s blatant lies “

NEWT NEEDS RICK PERRYS AD PEOPLE! They did some great ads for him, and super fast too. Shame that he had already gotten to the point of no return first.
But his ad people were great. (Unless it was Perry that put those concepts together)


21 posted on 01/30/2012 8:49:50 PM PST by Ladysforest
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To: uncbob
Mitt's up 45-32 with those who have already voted in Florida, about a third of the electorate:

Ouch. That will likely make even a miracle finish by Newt meaningless. I have been told a TON of folks voted early.

22 posted on 01/30/2012 8:50:23 PM PST by montag813
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To: Free Vulcan

As Newt said tonight, unless Romney starts winning 50% or more of the vote ...there is NO way conservatives are going to let him run away with the nomination. Delegates from here on out are PROPORTIONAL.

SOMEONE will have to drop out — that someone will have to be Santorum. Even Paul.

We have MORE than enough votes to kick Romney OUT OF THE GAME FOR GOOD — UNITE, Conservatives ...COME THE HELL ON and UNITE!!!!!!!!!!!!

I’m ready, personally, for some new spokespersons for Newt ..forget Palin and her cryptic Fox News crap ...forget ALL of them ...forget RUSh ...for God’s sake, forget Cain ... ready for some NEW BLOOD, Newt ...time to bring it out!!


23 posted on 01/30/2012 8:55:05 PM PST by LibsRJerks
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To: katiedidit1

Except that most polls show if Santorum got out, his votes would split 50/50 for Newt/Romney. Most of the pollsters have asked the Mitt/Newt head to head, and the spread is the same with all 4, or just the 2.

It’s widely held misconception, not based on factual information. The public is much better informed now than they were 50 years ago. That is why most endorsements don’t mean much anymore. In the past, people would say if Candidate X is supported by Y, then they are good enough for me. Doesn’t work much anymore. The reason the candidates seek endorsements is not so much to influence voters. But it is to gain resources from who endorsed them and also helps with their fundraising. But the endorsements themselves change very few minds with voters.


24 posted on 01/30/2012 8:57:14 PM PST by gswilder
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To: LibsRJerks

If conservatives united ...we’d be +-57 to 49 in Florida!! We’d cruise to victory from here on out!!!

What is UP with us???? Can we not do the math??

We should have bound and gagged Paul from the START. Same with Santorum at this point. I’m SO disgusted!!


25 posted on 01/30/2012 8:57:43 PM PST by LibsRJerks
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To: georgiagirl_pam

Shows the trend is toward Newt, who has been on Fox a lot and looking pretty good there. I’m predicting a narrow Romney win of 2-4 points. Santorum leaving the state is good for +1 or 2 for Newt.


26 posted on 01/30/2012 8:59:20 PM PST by cookcounty (Newt 2012: ---> Because he got it DONE.)
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To: georgiagirl_pam

It’s still an 8 point lead for the Socialist lite, but it leaves the door a bit ajar for Newt to pull of an upset with a big turnout from his supporters and low turnout from Willard’s sheeple.

Plus Romney has underperformed his poll numbers in each of the three votes so far

Pray for Newt and an upset win tomorrow.


27 posted on 01/30/2012 9:00:41 PM PST by GR_Jr. (ABR / AB0 (Anybody but Romney, and then Anybody but 0bama))
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To: georgiagirl_pam

Looks doable to me.


28 posted on 01/30/2012 9:00:48 PM PST by varina davis (A real American patriot -- Gov. Rick Perry)
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To: katiedidit1

Unlikely. And you guys really need to stop pushing this idea.

Look, Santorum was around 12% when Romney was ahead, and was around 12% when Gingrich was ahead, and regardless of what the poll says now, will finish with about 12% tomorrow. Santorum wasn’t hurting Newt’s ability to carry FL when Newt was up with over 40% of the vote, but now that Newt has lost that lead everybody want to blame Santorum? Everyone knows the key demographics of FL are the Senior Voters and Hispanics. At one time or another, Newt led those categories, but he lost them last week to Romney. These two categories for the most part are NOT Santorum voters. Whoever carries Hispanics and Seniors wins FL.

FL has A LOT of moderate/liberal voters, to the point they do make up a plurality of GOP voters. It’s quite possible, depending on turnout, that Romney’s vote total may exceed Gingrich and Santorum combined. If that happens, then what will the excuse be?

I finished my FL Simulation early today and posted in another thread, showing three different models based on turnout and a county by county breakout. In the “best-case” Scenario, Newt is down 7, in the middle case, about 15-16, and in the worse case 26.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2840149/posts


29 posted on 01/30/2012 9:00:58 PM PST by parksstp (Articulate Conservatives look for Converts. RINO's look for Democrat Heretics.)
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To: gswilder

I disagree with the polls on that...doubt many Santorum voters would ever go for the socialist pro choice candidate


30 posted on 01/30/2012 9:02:45 PM PST by katiedidit1 ("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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To: georgiagirl_pam

I can guess too:

Gingrich 30
Santorum 29
Romney 29
Paul 10


31 posted on 01/30/2012 9:03:06 PM PST by Ingtar (I never thought I would come to say it, but "Go Newt!" Our last, best chance.)
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To: Snoopers-868th
"oes anyone remember that IIRC Florida is penalized half their delegates b/c they are having the primary early? If Mittens wins he gets 25 delegates not 50."

uh, no, FLorida would have had 99, instead they have 50. ......Which is less than Georgia or Tennessee about the same as OK, all of which will go Gingrich if he stays in.

32 posted on 01/30/2012 9:03:31 PM PST by cookcounty (Newt 2012: ---> Because he got it DONE.)
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To: Snoopers-868th

They lost half, so have 50 instead of 100.


33 posted on 01/30/2012 9:04:34 PM PST by Ingtar (I never thought I would come to say it, but "Go Newt!" Our last, best chance.)
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To: Cobra64

“Early on I liked Santorum but watching him in the debates, especially the last two, I see him as a nasty, spiteful, little man with grandiose, unrealistic expectations. “

I don’t see Rick as nasty, just out of his league. He doesn’t even realize that he’s out of his league.

Nasty is everything Romney unleashed so far. All the lies and deception...


34 posted on 01/30/2012 9:04:51 PM PST by ari-freedom (If SOPA/PIPA passes, we will lose our Free Republic.)
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To: georgiagirl_pam
Rick Santorum is right on nearly every issue.

Nevertheless, he has earned the animus of every conservative who wants to win.

Eternally.

He'll never win anything, ever, again.

35 posted on 01/30/2012 9:07:13 PM PST by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: parksstp

IT’S THE MONEY!!!!! Newt will NEVER be able to match establishment
money!!!!!


36 posted on 01/30/2012 9:07:40 PM PST by Kit cat (OBummer must go)
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To: LibsRJerks

I was wondering how the delegates were proportioned after FL, and that bodes well for Newt.

They’ve spun FL as a blowout for Romney. They’ve set themselves up the bomb cuz if it’s only even single digits Romney looks like a chump and a loser.

I believe it will go all the way to convention.


37 posted on 01/30/2012 9:08:20 PM PST by Free Vulcan (Election 2012 - America stands or falls. No more excuses. Get involved.)
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To: Free Vulcan
"I believe PPP’s final SC poll was Newt up by 6.

He won by 14.

Yup, and like SC, the numbers show a trend back toward Gingrich with early voters pro-Romney, late voters not so much. I think Mitt will still win but get a scare.

38 posted on 01/30/2012 9:08:35 PM PST by cookcounty (Newt 2012: ---> Because he got it DONE.)
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To: No!
Can anyone tell me WHY 200,000 people vote early and what is their reasoning?

Probably the ones who are steadfastly committed to their candidate.

I'd vote against obama tomorrow.

39 posted on 01/30/2012 9:16:04 PM PST by HIDEK6
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To: georgiagirl_pam; biggredd1
Courtesy of Biggredd1, here's a lovely Romney video showing his liberal Democrat views during a debate with Kennedy in 1994:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9IJUkYUbvI&feature=autoplay&list=FLwSePFZ8-4Tx2BI0ZPm2CGQ&lf=mh_lolz&playnext=1

40 posted on 01/30/2012 9:16:28 PM PST by BagCamAddict (THANK YOU PERRY and CAIN!! (Santorum, please do the right thing.) GO NEWT !!)
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To: parksstp

If you asked them why they think Romney’s more “electable” what do they say? Hopefully it’s not the polls since Kerry was ahead by Bush all year up to at least 4 months before election day when he was ahead by 7 points.

IMO, Newt won SC in part because of the anti-Bain ads. Even though voters may have disagreed with the attacks, found them anti-capitalist or whatever, it showed them what Romney will be facing in the Fall that will make him unelectable against Obama. Because Newt won by so much in SC those Bain ads weren’t decisive, but they could have made the different in FL precisely because they showed what Mitt’s glass jaw would be in the fall. Newt will not win the primary if he doesn’t go back to attacking Romney’s business career, albeit preferably with sharper, more defined attacks.


41 posted on 01/30/2012 9:20:04 PM PST by JediJones (Newt-er Romney in 2012!)
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To: georgiagirl_pam
The "early voting" is PACKED with Romney-the-RINO votes, and I don't think NEWT can overcome the ballots already cast against him.

I am not sure how many millions of dollars of RNC and PAC monies have flooded the FL airwaves with anti-Newt garbage, but you can rest assured the State-Run-Media will be saying "it's a done deal; the Romney Nomination is a foregone conclusion".

Be prepared for 4 additional years of corruption and destruction of this country when that happens.

42 posted on 01/30/2012 9:20:25 PM PST by traditional1 (Free speech for me.....not for thee)
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To: No!

Cheating. It’s Florida.

Isn’t Mitt’s advisor the same one Charlie Crist used?

I don’t believe *any* of the polls anymore. They are meant to dissuade likely voters from going to the polls, and make voters feel like their vote will be wasted if they vote their heart ( for the true conservative in this case).

I’m so sick of the media leading the way, I’m sick of the nastiness, the Pelosi threat — wish she’d just pack up her face and go fade away.


43 posted on 01/30/2012 9:22:30 PM PST by getmeouttaPalmBeachCounty_FL (..................go Giants!!!.....)
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To: georgiagirl_pam
The BIG STINKER in South Carolina was the NBC/Marist poll, which 4 days before the election overstated Romney's strength by a whopping 24 points.
44 posted on 01/30/2012 9:25:22 PM PST by cookcounty (Newt 2012: ---> Because he got it DONE.)
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To: JediJones

Oh you know, it’s the standard he looks and sounds “Preidential”, and of course, the polls.


45 posted on 01/30/2012 9:36:02 PM PST by parksstp (Articulate Conservatives look for Converts. RINO's look for Democrat Heretics.)
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To: gswilder

You’re always so cheerful..thanks for the tip.

Hope you’re support of a liar like Romney is very fulfilling for you.


46 posted on 01/30/2012 10:23:22 PM PST by moonhawk (Romney tucks his tail and licks the hand that beats him. Newt rips it off at the shoulder.)
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To: parksstp

“...you guys really need to stop pushing this idea.”

You need to stop telling other people what to do.


47 posted on 01/30/2012 10:27:34 PM PST by moonhawk (Romney tucks his tail and licks the hand that beats him. Newt rips it off at the shoulder.)
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To: traditional1
Be prepared for 4 additional years of corruption and destruction of this country when that happens.

The real sad part is whether it is O or mit that holds true. Both are corrupt and socialist and we are done either way. Mit is slightly less an outright socialist than O is.

The other good thing would be that Mit might appoint a conservative to SCOTUS... and we already know what o will do.. we might end up with... that could even be Justice Aeyers... or Aeyere AND Justice Bernadette Dorn.

God save the U.S.A.
48 posted on 01/30/2012 10:44:51 PM PST by JSteff ((((It was ALL about SCOTUS. Most forget about that and HAVE DOOMED us for a generation or more.))))
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To: ari-freedom
I see him as a nasty, spiteful, little man with grandiose, unrealistic expectations. “ I don’t see Rick as nasty, just out of his league. He doesn’t even realize that he’s out of his league.

Anyone who wins, left or right, has to have some connection with the people -- call it charisma.

It is totally irrelevant how good Santorum is on the issues. Santorum has ZERO charisma.

Santorum it truly delusional if he thinks all of a sudden there will be a groundswell of support for him. He will never ignite the people to get behind him. He will never be President.

He is helping Mitt by staying it -- to deny that is to deny reality.

49 posted on 01/30/2012 10:51:40 PM PST by sand88 (Hey Rove et al, I will, with great pleasure, NOT cast a vote for the Statist Mitt.)
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To: gswilder

I think your wrong. 2/1 newt sounds more like it...from the polls I’ve seen. It would help Newt a lot.


50 posted on 01/31/2012 12:02:21 AM PST by Rick_Michael ( 'REAL' Conservatives who witch hunt their own, are no better than Obama.)
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