Skip to comments.Rick Santorum sweeps Tuesday contests with Colorado win
Posted on 02/08/2012 6:27:46 AM PST by Clintonfatigued
Rick Santorum won the Colorado GOP presidential preference straw poll, according to the Colorado Republican Party.
The victory means a trifecta tonight for the former Pennsylvania senator, who also won in Minnesota and Missouri.
It is a significant defeat for front-runner Mitt Romney, who took 60% of the vote in the Colorados 2008 nominating contest. John McCain, the eventual nominee, won just 18%.
(Excerpt) Read more at chicagotribune.com ...
Romney slipped on his own dyed greasy hair! GO NEWT!
FOX"News"' Prime Romney-Pimp:
"We at FOX have already decided the winner of
the Colorado GOP presidential preference straw poll.
That makes Mitt Romney the "frontrunner" here at FOX/BAIN News
even when you laugh knowing
it is obviously not true."
This is excellent news. Romney had put money and organizational muscle into the Colorado caucuses and still lost. Clearly most Republicans regard him as a dud.
Just in case there’s still any confusion about who his legit challenger is: total votes cast so far:
Now this dern thing wasn’t wrote in the script!
So Santorum is "illegitimate"? What law did he break?
I don’t think at this point that either Gingrich of Santorum can stop Romney single-handedly. But if Gingrich picks up enough Southern delegates and Santorum picks up enough Midwestern delegates, they can deny Romney a majority of the delegates at the convention.
GOP voters to GOP: “NOT ROMNEY”. Well said yesterday.
I want the experience that Newt brings to the table. Also, he’ll cream Obama in an “uncontrolled” debate.
Fair and balanced is Juan McCain
Ive had enough of the wisdom of Bill Cristal, Chas. Krauthammer, Ted Baxter, Bret Beahr, Toyko Rove, Ann Colter, Chris Wallace, Sean Wannabe, Dana Parino,
Brit Hume, Shep Smith, Judge Jeanene, Alam Clomes, Bob Beckle, Juan Williams, Whoraldo, et. al. all acting the part of the Romney cheerleading squad
There is clearly a hunger and a market for honest news and honest conservative news
Congrats Rick! One thing is for certain, Newt’s gone. It was nice to know you Newt. Loved your debate performance and intellect. It is unfortunate that you won’t be able to use it on Obama.
There is one chance for Newt, however. He could start running negative ads against Santorum. Those ads worked on Romney.
When and under what circumstances did Aldo Santorum naturalize?
Approx. the 10:00 mark.
Wait! Maybe it was the negative ads run by Newt against Romney that led to Newt’s devastating losses to Santorum yesterday. Maybe Newt should promote his ideas instead of just tearing people down.
Congrats Rick! One thing is for certain, Newts gone. It was nice to know you Newt. Loved your debate performance and intellect. It is unfortunate that you wont be able to use it on Obama.
There is one chance for Newt, however. He could start running negative ads against Santorum. Those ads worked on Romney
Wishful thinking. Newt has 9 political lives. He’ll come back, don’t you worry. Any and all of this could very well be playing right into his strategy. Do NOT underestimate him.
Haven’t you seen the terrible negative ads Santorum has been running against Newt? I saw them on Fox, who was all too happy to play them in their pig-pile on Newt after Florida.
Santorum had a wonderful night last night. But please don’t make him out to be the all-positive saint in the race. He’s a politician like the rest of them.
>> ROMNEY 1,182,886
>> GINGRICH 838,102
>> SANTORUM 568,723
>> PAUL 335,951
Interesting way to look at things. Thanks!
And I love to play with numbers, so let’s take a look at some alternatives —
Scenario Number One: If Newt drops out, most of his voters (let’s say 80%) would probably go to Santo, a few to Romney (say, 10%) and a few to Ronny P (say, another 10%), leaving us with —
Romno = 1266696 = 43.2%
Santo = 1239205 = 42.6%
Paulo = 419761 = 14.3%
Therefore, under these assumptions, there’s a statistical tie between Santo and Romno, probably leading to a brokered convention — maybe with Paulo becoming a king-maker. Final outcome is anybody’s guess.
Scenario Number Two: There was at least one survey a couple of weeks ago showing that if Santo dropped out, half his support would go to Newt and another half (presumably the “strict morality” folks) to Mitt. So if this outcome should eventuate, here’s roughly what we’d have —
Mitt = 1467248 = 50.2%
Newt = 1122464 = 38.4%
Paul = 335951 = 11.0%
Bottom line for the second set of assumptions:
Mitt squeaks by, barely winning the nomination, but ultimately loses to Zerobama — due to (a) bitter wounds that are still festering within the GOP and (b) alienation of independents who are turned off by Romney’s recent negative campaign.
Both of the above outcomes are depressing. But if I gotta choose between the lesser of the evils, I’d wanna go with the first scenario, i.e., a brokered convention, which JUST MAYBE would let us nominate a Paul Ryan or a Mitch Daniels or a David Petraeus.
You really are “playing” with numbers. You miss one big...no, one HUGE HUGE factor. Turn out and intensity.
The only state where turn out was up (by any appreciable degree) was SC. That was the only excited electorate. Newt won that huge.
Santorum has snuck in four times with extremely low turn outs over earth scorched by Mitt at Newt’s expense. Santorum has shown no ability to turn out numbers, which is why he has awful raw vote figures even after his best night ever.
>> hell cream Obama in an uncontrolled debate <<
Do you really and truly think Zerobama would agree to such a debate? What kinda weeds have you been smokin’ lately?
I love your screen name! :-)
“Just in case theres still any confusion about who his legit challenger is: total votes cast so far:
Not Romney 1,742,776
Drudge, is that you?
>> You miss one big...no, one HUGE HUGE factor. Turn out and intensity <<
Thanks again! And my apology. Don’t want to leave out anything you or some other well-informed observer might think is critically important. Simply trying to do “cold-blooded” and non-emotional analysis without respect to personal preferences.
So just give me your numerical estimates for turnout and/or intensity, and tell me how to fit those data into a model. I’d very much like to work thru the implications!
(But might not have time for a few days, due to an upcoming trip.)
Drudge did publish these numbers, which is unusual, because these numbers show a decent picture for Newt - something Drudge has been loathe to do for about eight weeks.
“You miss one big...no, one HUGE HUGE factor. Turn out and intensity “
Let me briefly address the TURN OUT factor here in Colorado. A few days ago we had a snow storm which broke a 103 year record. The weather was a factor in the turn out.
The INTENSITY at our rather large caucus was very palpable and it was for Santorum.
I guess you had to be there.
Fair point on the turn out, but Colorado’s GOP primaries are all tiny anyway. It was tiny in 08 and tiny in 2012. Something way under 100 thousand votes in both cycles. I get MN and CO confused, but one state was around 50 thousand total and the other around 70 thousand total.
Florida was 1.6 million (down from 1.92 million in 08) and South Carolina was like 620,000 - up from 450 thousand in 08. Any way you measure it, the entire three state population from last night was
A: tiny compared even to just South Carolina even added together
B: way down cumulatively from 08 over all.
You miss one big...no, one HUGE HUGE factor. (Big MO) MOMENTUM!
...but, I’m sure you can downplay that as well.
I think it’s very hard to project intensity. There are too many factors. My point is simply this: Newt is the only one to demonstrate any ability to motivate turn out. He has also shown the ability to shoot himself in the foot.
Meanwhile, Mitt has demonstrated only the ability to depress turn out.
Santorum has only demonstrated the ability to win when there’s a hugely depressed turn out within the confines of a tiny voting population. The total votes cast in his “four states” equal far less than the total votes cast in South Carolina alone and those four totaled up equal about a fourth of the total vote in Florida alone.
The only way for the GOP to win is to motivate large turn out. Only Newt has that ability in my opinion. He also has the ability to mess it up too.
FTR, SC was up 35%. The campaign was liberal v conservative thanks to Newt in the debates. THATS THE KEY: make this about Obama and liberals, not about each other. But the ego’s will not let that happen.
That includes Santorum’s ego, something his supporters will not admit exists...
No, I admit momentum is big, and that will work to Santorum’s favor. But frankly, that issue was not missed in the coverage of these three states. I didn’t think it needed help from me because it’s all over the place.
If Newts campaign has any smarts, and I think that’s up for discussion at this point, they will emphasize the turn out issue and the total vote issue.
“I get MN and CO confused...”
No problem. I get Drudge and C. Edmund Wright confused. ;>)
OK smart ass, what I meant was, I get the two state’s turn out figures from last night confused. Actually, let me clarify.
You dumb ass, not smart ass.
turn out: Colorado about 70K and MN about 50 K.
You dumb ass, not smart ass.
turn out: Colorado about 70K and MN about 50 K.
I knew exactly what you meant and wasn't in disagreement.
Apparently you you missed my smiley face/sarcasm tag.
But, I guess you're just a 'dumb ass, not smart ass'.
I did miss the smiley tag and that does make me the dumb ass on that point.
Guilty as charged.
No problem. Have a great day.
I’m sure we’ll meet again, FRiend.
It seemed Romney was the favorite when Santorum stole his thunder in Iowa. Then Romney won NH and it seemed that inevitability line came up again. Newt took his legs out from under him in S Carolina. At about the same time, it came out that Santorum actually won Iowa.
Then it was Florida. Mitt won big and there was an actual coronation readied, and Nevada again brought the inevitability talk to the fore.
Santorum has stopped that dead in its tracks. Newt flat-lined in all those states. He owes Rick a back-channel 12 pack of Rick's favorite brew. (Yeungling? sp?)
Rick should be cheering like crazy for Newt in Georgia and vice versa Newt for Rick in Pennsylvania. Both should be sending flowers to Ron Paul in Virginia.
Without commenting on the relatives strengths and weaknesses of either Rick or Newt, they have helped it other at critical times. For anyone wanting to stop Mitt, that's a great outcome.
Especially, though, I find Santorum’s win in Colorado to be extremely significant. Colorado shares a very long border with Utah, Colorado has a large Mormon population, and Santorum carried Colorado easily. It stunned the pro-Mitt forces at Fox News.
Here is my explanation. Between the Catholic vote and the Dr Dobson vote (his HQ is in Colorado), social conservatives won that state for Rick. The evangelical leaders supported Santorum, and indirectly so did the Catholic Bishops. That tells us that the religious vote is extremely significant if it can be mobilized.
I do NOT have numbers to prove this. I haven't seen any exit polls. I'm simply basing this on assumptions.
1. The Colorado caucuses are nonbinding. All that happened last night was a straw poll. Two years ago the delegate we sent to the county convention from my precinct ignored the straw poll and helped give us Dan Maes for Governor. Mr. 10%.
2. Fewer than 70,000 votes were cast out of approximately 1 million registered Republicans. This was special interest voting and does not represent what the electorate was thinking. The lack of turnout seems to say nobody is enthusiastic about the Final Four, which sure represents my thinking.
3. After last night, we don't have a candidate. Romney is slowly bleeding out, which sounds great. But all we have is Not Romney. We have Ricknewtpaul.
We are screwed. We just reelected Barry.
>> If Newt’s campaign has any smarts, and I think thats up for discussion at this point <<
My limited experience working in large organizations has indicated that the underlings usually tend to reflect the operating style of the man at the top.
So one has to wonder if the campaign’s problems mostly reflect Newt’s general indiscipline and poor management skills — personal characteristics that former associates like Tom Coburn and Tom DeLay have mentioned prominently about Newt.
You bring up a good point, and one that is inherently the case. Now, from where I sit, every campaign is ultimately the responsibility of the candidate. If he/she hires and fires the wrong people and listens to the wrong people and ignores the right people - then the candidate still is ultimately still to blame or credit.
I think Newt makes a lot of his own decisions. I suspect he has yes people around him, and those yes people were not smart enough or strong enough to prevent Newt from hearing and seeing the negative ads run against him in Florida. They should have known that he would be personally insulted and would lose it. He was, and he did.
Good handlers would have kept him firing at Obama and the liberals - because that is what made Newt’s surge first in Iowa and then again in SC.
So Newt got bad advice, but chose to take it nonetheless. Blame all around .
Well well well.
And did you see the Rassmussen poll had that RS ahead of Obama by 1?
Is the universe teasing us?
This is the real deal. The battle is on! The grassroots has woken up and is in real rebellion against the MITT “bandwagon”. I have seen it with my own eyes. I realize for people that are watching at home, that it might seem like it is not what we expected, but THE PEOPLE ARE WITH OUR PROGRAM! They get it, and they have awoken.
This is historic. Do not miss it when it comes soon to a state near you.
This is the real deal. The battle is on! The grassroots has woken up and is in real rebellion against the MITT bandwagon.
Very true! It’ll be a while until the next primary or caucus (not counting Maine’s caucus). The trick is to keep Rick Santorum in the spotlight so that he can raise his visibility and money, but without saturating the media and overstaying his welcome.
MAINE IS IN TOTAL REBELLION.
This is Mitt’s backyard & stronghold. And the grassroots is pounding away at him.
Both Romney, and Ron Paul, will attack Rick. I keep getting emails from Ron Paul attacking Rick Santorum.