Posted on 02/08/2012 6:27:46 AM PST by Clintonfatigued
Rick Santorum won the Colorado GOP presidential preference straw poll, according to the Colorado Republican Party.
The victory means a trifecta tonight for the former Pennsylvania senator, who also won in Minnesota and Missouri.
It is a significant defeat for front-runner Mitt Romney, who took 60% of the vote in the Colorado’s 2008 nominating contest. John McCain, the eventual nominee, won just 18%.
(Excerpt) Read more at chicagotribune.com ...
>> ROMNEY 1,182,886
>> GINGRICH 838,102
>> SANTORUM 568,723
>> PAUL 335,951
Interesting way to look at things. Thanks!
And I love to play with numbers, so let’s take a look at some alternatives —
Scenario Number One: If Newt drops out, most of his voters (let’s say 80%) would probably go to Santo, a few to Romney (say, 10%) and a few to Ronny P (say, another 10%), leaving us with —
Romno = 1266696 = 43.2%
Santo = 1239205 = 42.6%
Paulo = 419761 = 14.3%
Therefore, under these assumptions, there’s a statistical tie between Santo and Romno, probably leading to a brokered convention — maybe with Paulo becoming a king-maker. Final outcome is anybody’s guess.
Scenario Number Two: There was at least one survey a couple of weeks ago showing that if Santo dropped out, half his support would go to Newt and another half (presumably the “strict morality” folks) to Mitt. So if this outcome should eventuate, here’s roughly what we’d have —
Mitt = 1467248 = 50.2%
Newt = 1122464 = 38.4%
Paul = 335951 = 11.0%
Bottom line for the second set of assumptions:
Mitt squeaks by, barely winning the nomination, but ultimately loses to Zerobama — due to (a) bitter wounds that are still festering within the GOP and (b) alienation of independents who are turned off by Romney’s recent negative campaign.
Both of the above outcomes are depressing. But if I gotta choose between the lesser of the evils, I’d wanna go with the first scenario, i.e., a brokered convention, which JUST MAYBE would let us nominate a Paul Ryan or a Mitch Daniels or a David Petraeus.
You really are “playing” with numbers. You miss one big...no, one HUGE HUGE factor. Turn out and intensity.
The only state where turn out was up (by any appreciable degree) was SC. That was the only excited electorate. Newt won that huge.
Santorum has snuck in four times with extremely low turn outs over earth scorched by Mitt at Newt’s expense. Santorum has shown no ability to turn out numbers, which is why he has awful raw vote figures even after his best night ever.
>> he’ll cream Obama in an “uncontrolled” debate <<
Do you really and truly think Zerobama would agree to such a debate? What kinda weeds have you been smokin’ lately?
I love your screen name! :-)
Thank you!
“Just in case there’s still any confusion about who his legit challenger is: total votes cast so far:
ROMNEY 1,182,886
GINGRICH 838,102
SANTORUM 568,723
PAUL 335,951
Just saying.....”
~~~~~~
Romney 1,182,886
Not Romney 1,742,776
Drudge, is that you?
Just saying...
>> You miss one big...no, one HUGE HUGE factor. Turn out and intensity <<
Thanks again! And my apology. Don’t want to leave out anything you or some other well-informed observer might think is critically important. Simply trying to do “cold-blooded” and non-emotional analysis without respect to personal preferences.
So just give me your numerical estimates for turnout and/or intensity, and tell me how to fit those data into a model. I’d very much like to work thru the implications!
(But might not have time for a few days, due to an upcoming trip.)
Drudge did publish these numbers, which is unusual, because these numbers show a decent picture for Newt - something Drudge has been loathe to do for about eight weeks.
“You miss one big...no, one HUGE HUGE factor. Turn out and intensity “
~~~~
Let me briefly address the TURN OUT factor here in Colorado. A few days ago we had a snow storm which broke a 103 year record. The weather was a factor in the turn out.
The INTENSITY at our rather large caucus was very palpable and it was for Santorum.
I guess you had to be there.
Just saying...
Fair point on the turn out, but Colorado’s GOP primaries are all tiny anyway. It was tiny in 08 and tiny in 2012. Something way under 100 thousand votes in both cycles. I get MN and CO confused, but one state was around 50 thousand total and the other around 70 thousand total.
Florida was 1.6 million (down from 1.92 million in 08) and South Carolina was like 620,000 - up from 450 thousand in 08. Any way you measure it, the entire three state population from last night was
A: tiny compared even to just South Carolina even added together
B: way down cumulatively from 08 over all.
You miss one big...no, one HUGE HUGE factor. (Big MO) MOMENTUM!
...but, I’m sure you can downplay that as well.
I think it’s very hard to project intensity. There are too many factors. My point is simply this: Newt is the only one to demonstrate any ability to motivate turn out. He has also shown the ability to shoot himself in the foot.
Meanwhile, Mitt has demonstrated only the ability to depress turn out.
Santorum has only demonstrated the ability to win when there’s a hugely depressed turn out within the confines of a tiny voting population. The total votes cast in his “four states” equal far less than the total votes cast in South Carolina alone and those four totaled up equal about a fourth of the total vote in Florida alone.
The only way for the GOP to win is to motivate large turn out. Only Newt has that ability in my opinion. He also has the ability to mess it up too.
FTR, SC was up 35%. The campaign was liberal v conservative thanks to Newt in the debates. THATS THE KEY: make this about Obama and liberals, not about each other. But the ego’s will not let that happen.
That includes Santorum’s ego, something his supporters will not admit exists...
No, I admit momentum is big, and that will work to Santorum’s favor. But frankly, that issue was not missed in the coverage of these three states. I didn’t think it needed help from me because it’s all over the place.
If Newts campaign has any smarts, and I think that’s up for discussion at this point, they will emphasize the turn out issue and the total vote issue.
“I get MN and CO confused...”
~~~
No problem. I get Drudge and C. Edmund Wright confused. ;>)
OK smart ass, what I meant was, I get the two state’s turn out figures from last night confused. Actually, let me clarify.
You dumb ass, not smart ass.
turn out: Colorado about 70K and MN about 50 K.
You dumb ass, not smart ass.
turn out: Colorado about 70K and MN about 50 K.
I knew exactly what you meant and wasn't in disagreement.
Apparently you you missed my smiley face/sarcasm tag.
But, I guess you're just a 'dumb ass, not smart ass'.
Bye...
I did miss the smiley tag and that does make me the dumb ass on that point.
Guilty as charged.
No problem. Have a great day.
I’m sure we’ll meet again, FRiend.
It seemed Romney was the favorite when Santorum stole his thunder in Iowa. Then Romney won NH and it seemed that inevitability line came up again. Newt took his legs out from under him in S Carolina. At about the same time, it came out that Santorum actually won Iowa.
Then it was Florida. Mitt won big and there was an actual coronation readied, and Nevada again brought the inevitability talk to the fore.
Santorum has stopped that dead in its tracks. Newt flat-lined in all those states. He owes Rick a back-channel 12 pack of Rick's favorite brew. (Yeungling? sp?)
Rick should be cheering like crazy for Newt in Georgia and vice versa Newt for Rick in Pennsylvania. Both should be sending flowers to Ron Paul in Virginia.
Without commenting on the relatives strengths and weaknesses of either Rick or Newt, they have helped it other at critical times. For anyone wanting to stop Mitt, that's a great outcome.
Especially, though, I find Santorum’s win in Colorado to be extremely significant. Colorado shares a very long border with Utah, Colorado has a large Mormon population, and Santorum carried Colorado easily. It stunned the pro-Mitt forces at Fox News.
Here is my explanation. Between the Catholic vote and the Dr Dobson vote (his HQ is in Colorado), social conservatives won that state for Rick. The evangelical leaders supported Santorum, and indirectly so did the Catholic Bishops. That tells us that the religious vote is extremely significant if it can be mobilized.
I do NOT have numbers to prove this. I haven't seen any exit polls. I'm simply basing this on assumptions.
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