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Path to Brokered GOP Convention Emerges (one can only hope)
Real Clear Politics ^ | February 9, 2012 | Sean Trende

Posted on 02/09/2012 6:28:49 AM PST by St. Louis Conservative

For many conservative Republicans, the dream outcome of the primary season is a brokered convention. Disappointed in the four remaining choices, they hope to change horses in August, and draft their preferred candidate, be it Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, or Paul Ryan.

I've been adamant that such an outcome is extremely unlikely. For a brokered convention to occur, there has to be an almost perfect storm of events; the GOP elites can’t just declare shenanigans on the primary season and select a new nominee. Instead, something has to prevent any of the current candidates from clinching a majority of the delegates; if one of them amasses that majority, he will be the nominee on the first ballot at the convention in Tampa.

My assumption -- and the assumption of many -- was that the GOP fight would eventually degenerate into an ideological battle between the very conservative and somewhat conservative/moderate wings of the party, with Romney on one side and a single alternative on the other. Unless there was a late entrant or Ron Paul caught fire in the caucus states, someone was virtually assured of claiming the requisite number of delegates in that scenario.

But for the first time, the two way faceoff doesn't seem inevitable, and a viable path to a brokered convention is beginning to emerge. Let’s start with something else I overlooked. The GOP does have super-delegates of a sort, in the form of the 63 RNC members. They aren’t as numerous as they are in the Democratic Party, but they are still there. While many of them have already declared allegiance to one candidate or another, those commitments can evaporate quickly, as Hillary Clinton learned to her sorrow in 2008.

(Excerpt) Read more at ...

TOPICS: Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Philosophy; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: convention; obama; primary; republican
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To: St. Louis Conservative; All
I read the entire article. A Brokered Convention sounds exciting but this is a concern about a BC if someone, not currently running, gets the nod:

The nominee would have to be able to put together a platform, a fundraising organization, prepare for debates, select a running mate, and hit the campaign trail, all in a manner of weeks.
And the candidate would not be fully vetted. There might be some skeleton in his closet, or his family’s.

The last Dem BC was in 1952 when they nominated Gov. Adlai Stevenson of IL. The last GOP BC was 1940 when they nominated Wendell Wilkie. THEY BOTH LOST.
21 posted on 02/09/2012 8:46:53 AM PST by no dems (I'm more concerned with America's future than I am Newt's past.)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

hm... I just wiki’d the primary states to see which of the remaining ones are winner take all ... and it doesn’t bode well for the ABR’s

Arizona -29
Michigan -30
Ohio -63
Vermont -17
Virginia (Santorum and Newt Removed from ballot) - 46
Kansas - 40
Puerto Rico - 20
Maryland - 37
DC - 16
Wisconsin - 39
Connecticut - 25
Delaware - 17
Indiana (Santorum removed from ballot) - 27
California - 169
New Jersey - 50
Utah - 40

= 665 delegates


no chance for the ABR’s, Romney will win nearly all of those. It seems that this was rigged from the start to favor Romney (it’s nice to have the insiders on your side) and they tipped the scale in Romney’s favor even further just in case by making sure Newt and/or Santorum were not on the ballot in a few key winner take all states that Romney might have lost

22 posted on 02/09/2012 8:47:20 AM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Go Newt!)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

disregard my previous post, it’s actually far more complicated than that.

23 posted on 02/09/2012 8:56:42 AM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Go Newt!)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

>>Does anyone have a link to somewhere that shows which of the remaining contests are winner take all?

I like this one:

24 posted on 02/09/2012 9:17:38 AM PST by Norseman (Defund the Left-Completely!)
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To: achilles2000

Did anyone ever find out what the secret little meeting at the White House between GHW, Jeb and Obimbo was about?

25 posted on 02/09/2012 9:18:55 AM PST by I_be_tc
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To: achilles2000; All

Give me United States Senator Jim DeMint

26 posted on 02/09/2012 9:23:48 AM PST by killermosquito (Buffalo, Detroit (and eventually France) is what you get when liberalism runs its course.)
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To: St. Louis Conservative
Picture this.
The convention is in an uproar. There is no clear winner.
The MSM is mocking those disorganized Republicans.
A chant begins on the floor.




27 posted on 02/09/2012 9:32:57 AM PST by McGruff (Think Brokered Convention)
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No, it’s not.

It’s not going to happen.

It would be scary if it did happen.

Might as well wish to win the lottery. Same odds.

28 posted on 02/09/2012 9:33:21 AM PST by altura (Pining for Perry but willing to settle for Newt or Santorum.)
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To: altura

It’s not gonna get interesting?

29 posted on 02/09/2012 10:49:47 AM PST by REDWOOD99 ("Everyone should pay taxes. Everyone should pay the same rate.)
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To: Graewoulf

Mary — you may hate Romney but the polls show most conservatives give the three leading candidates — Gingrich, Romney, Santoru — reasonably high favorables with Romney generally higher than the other two. If all conservatives shared your hatred of him, then he would not have won self-described conservatives in NH, FL, and NV.

And excuse me if I laugh when you say folks on free Republic are not happy with me. Neither is Obama: I’m helping American Crossroads raise $300 million to beat him. Think I’m trying to carry my weight in this election: can the same be said for a bunch of gripers and moaners?

And one last thing: I live in Texas, not Washington.

ME: Hi Karl,
Your description of Free Republic is far from accurate and I wonder how you arrived at that conclusion and if you have even been there.
For me, it is the only place to now get unbiased links and updated political news. Faux news has gone left, unfortunately.

It’s also a venu for productive discourse with other Conservatives, though of course as with any site, there are some trolls and complainers.
Often the “advice’ for the present roster of candidates, offered by concerned, intelligent and informed people, has been spot on and has been sent on to their staff...and in some cases, used by them.
If they have criticized you for your public opinions, it is the same thing you do. Not everyone is going to agree with you, especially if you voice a view that is the opposite of theirs.

We Freepers work to help Conservatives get elected to office. We write letters to the editor. We attend C-PAC conferences.
We are in deeply committed to the fight to defeat Obama, just like you are.

But many of us will no longer compromise our values and first principles for poor GOP elitists choices and if the nominee loses in November, it’ll not be because of anything we’ve done or not done.
It’ll be due to the majority of the ignorant electorate casting their ballot for Hussein..or worse, staying home

A lesson to be learned by the GOP is that to have put their faith in a RINO, an unprincipled, power hungry, phony moderate from Massachusetts, supposedly the only one who is “electable”, was a mistake.
A Reagan-esque Conservative creating stark contrast with the far left, radical President would have been the answer.

A sound recruiting effort to have vetted better Conservative candidates... well in advance.
And there are consequences.
Though I am a lifelong Republican, The RNC is losing support from past donors like me which should be getting their attention.

But it’s not over til it’s over. May God bless Rick and Newt as they continue to fight...all the way to a brokered convention?

Your friend, Mary

30 posted on 02/09/2012 11:48:23 AM PST by Mountain Mary (Reputation is what others know about you. Honor is what you know about yourself.)
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