Posted on 02/16/2012 4:32:24 PM PST by Oldeconomybuyer
With fewer than nine months to go before Election Day, The Signal predicts that Barack Obama will win the presidential contest with 303 electoral votes to the Republican nominee's 235.
How do we know? We don't, of course. Campaigns and candidates evolve, and elections are dynamic events with more variables than can reasonably be distilled in an equation. But the data--based on a prediction engine created by Yahoo! scientists--suggest a second term is likely for the current president. This model does not use polls or prediction markets to directly gauge what voters are thinking. Instead, it forecasts the results of the Electoral College based on past elections, economic indicators, measures of state ideology, presidential approval ratings, incumbency, and a few other politically agnostic factors.
A key finding of the model is that economic trends—whether things are getting better or worse than they were a month ago—are more meaningful than the level state of the economy. In other words, whether the unemployment rate is increasing or decreasing is more important than what the unemployment rate actually is.
Another lesson of this model is that, while campaigns and candidates matter, they don't matter all that much. Despite the varying quality and positions of the campaigns and candidates over the last 10 presidential elections, variables beyond their immediate control describe the outcome very well. A brilliant or lucky campaigner is at an advantage, but the net effect of politics and strategy, averaged over the past 40 years, is just the small variation that the Yahoo! model cannot predict.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
Right. So, if gasoline goes to $5 in the Spring but is dropping to $4.50 by election time, it's all to Obama's advantage!
You said...
“I beleive BHO will win reelection, retain the Senate and gain seats in the House”
Agree
Considering that it’s starting to look like all we might throw at him is RINO Romney or St. Santorum, there is little reason to argue that he won’t win.
I am not saying that Obama should win, but if all we are going to fight with is these two spit-wads, he’s going to beat us like a redheaded stepchild..... (my apologies to all redheaded stepchildren).
The GOP-e has soooooo screwed us.
Now, what we'll see is rising unemployment, the so-called cocking of the unemployment trigger, for an October release - don't be surprised if 9.5%* unemployment in September drops to 7.2%* in October (with 3* millions leaving the workforce).
* - or whatever numbers are needed to do the deed
There’s well over 12000 posts now and all that I have read are making fun of the Yahoo scientists. They aren’t getting any positive feed back ... Of course I haven’t gone through all 12000 posts, but I read a bunch because they’re entertaining and it makes me feel better to see so many well informed people expressing their views.
But then I can't figure out how this country changed from one where Reagan carried 49 states, to one in which Obama has any chance of winning at all.
That wouldn’t surprise me.
I can see the Dems using Obama as a target, until the last minute, and then suddenly bring somebody else out.
Should say:
This model does not use polls or prediction markets to directly gauge what voters are thinking. Instead, it forecasts the results by how many dead people, convicted felons and illegal alins vote then who counts the votes.
Garbage in, garbage out. Computer models that is.
Conning others or deluding themselves ??
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