Posted on 02/17/2012 5:48:02 AM PST by Kaslin
In a campaign defined by Republican reluctance to embrace Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum has emerged as the latest not-Romney candidate to surge ahead. While it's impossible to predict what will happen in this volatile election season, the data suggests that Santorum might be more of a challenge for Romney than earlier flavors of the month.
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of the GOP race shows that Rick Santorum leads Mitt Romney by 12 points, 39 percent to 27 percent. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are far behind. In and of itself, that's nothing new. The man from Massachusetts has at times trailed Michele Bachmann, Donald Trump, Chris Christie, Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich in the polls.
What is new are the numbers from a head-to-head matchup with no other candidates in the race. Santorum leads Romney 55 percent to 34 percent. None of the earlier Romney alternatives could manage better than a toss-up in such a contest.
Those numbers show that Santorum picks up 16 points when other candidates drop out. Romney adds just 7 to his column. Santorum makes huge gains among conservative voters when others drop out of the race. Among non-conservatives, Santorum and Romney gain roughly equal amounts. For the first time, the numbers show that if one of Romney's challengers drops out, the other challenger will overwhelmingly benefit. Gingrich supporters, by a three-to-one margin, would vote for Santorum over Romney if that was the final choice.
Both Romney and Santorum are well-liked by Republican Primary voters, but Santorum has a slight advantage on this pointm as well. Seventy-five percent offer a favorable opinion of Santorum, while 66 percent say the same of Romney.
There is a huge passion gap favoring Santorum, though. Forty percent of Republican primary voters have a very favorable opinion of Santorum. Just 18 percent are that enthusiastic about Romney.
The one thing keeping Romney afloat is that he is still perceived as the strongest general election candidate. For some Republicans, that's enough. But to survive the Santorum challenge, Romney needs to give primary voters something more, something positive. GOP voters want a reason to vote for him beyond the fact that he has the most money and the best organization.
Team Romney needs to acknowledge that Republican voters are not only strongly opposed to President Obama's agenda but that they don't think much of Washington Republicans, either. They want a president who would shake up the good old boys network in Washington rather than join it. To date, Romney's attitude signals that he'd be more comfortable leading the club than challenging it.
Santorum has a very different challenge. First, he must survive the onslaught of ads coming from the Romney campaign. Then, he must convince Republican voters that he can win the general election in November. Electability is still the most important factor for Republican voters. If Santorum can neutralize the electability argument, he could become Romney's worst nightmare.
The next primary competitions are slated for Feb. 28 in Arizona and Michigan. If Romney wins both states, the race will probably be over. However, if Santorum can pull off a victory that day, he will be far more than the latest flavor of the month.
King Hussein appreciates your support.
http://www.ricksantorum.com/issues
“He has simply not demonstrated to me that he is that kind of a guy. He doesn’t strike me as a man with a real plan.”
He has more of a plan than any of the others. And look at what his value system is rather than expect him to have a multi-level plan at this point.
It’ll also be about the kind of people he will pick to surround him and help him..and I think he will choose wisely ..and know that he can’t do it alone.
I’m not talking about the candidates comparing their strengths and weaknesses.
Of course Rick is going to say he has the edge over Newt, and of course Newt will say he has the edge over Rick.
However, when the media or the internet attack Newt or Rick, then I have RomneySlime Machine experience now, and I know what a Romney inspired attack looks like.
On sites like ours, it pretends to be all about “conservative purity”.
FOX is amping up the drumbeat against Santorum...not surprised
FOX is amping up the drumbeat against Santorum...not surprised
RS is a wimp who is wet behind the ears who hasn't been vetted and given a pass in the debates - they let him rant on and said nothing.
But he won't get that far in the nomination and he will end up supporting his friend and your friend, mitt. He campaigned loudly for mitt, a pro home marriage pro abortion big gov't healthcare candidate. Slick Rick is a liar/deceiver. Only those who are drawn to evil would ever support him.
Santorum has a bit less baggage...never Speaker, less wives, less old media fixation.
but he has yet to get the nuclear attack Newt got from FOX, Drudge and 90% of the GOP and Conservative establishment in Iowa and Florida...outspent 20-1 in total negative ads...Newt had to respond
if he does it will hurt him too
I hope that doesn’t happen..at this juncture today it looks like he is the last anti Romney standing
FOX is on him a bit today ..
one day students will study the Newt campaign and the lesson will be that enough money and negative ads and the whole establishment on yer ass can indeed kill your campaign and that if debates are your only tool to beat that then you better ace every one
had Newt gone first in say Texas, Georgia and South Carolina he woulda had a better jumpstart...the first two states were easy for Romney and moderate Florida too
I am surprised but happy to see Romney stalled like this...amazing
First, nobody has as much baggage as Obam...front and center. Further you just haven't yet seen Rick's baggage..it's coming. Additionally there is no way Rick will stand in the debates with Obam....let alone run the country. He hasn't a clue and that's just the fact. We have no time for Rick's learning curve to play out if he's elected....the nation is in peril and you're believing an MT can do the work of a skilled surgeon...that's a not.
First, nobody has as much baggage as Obam...front and center. Further you just haven't yet seen Rick's baggage..it's coming. Additionally there is no way Rick will stand in the debates with Obam....let alone run the country. He hasn't a clue and that's just the fact. We have no time for Rick's learning curve to play out if he's elected....the nation is in peril and you're believing an MT can do the work of a skilled surgeon...that's a not.
The thing about that “Rombo” ad is that it paints Romney as sort of a goof ball caracature. They should continue this with other ads using the same actor portraying Mitt doing stupid things. Then when folks see the real Mitt, they immediately compare him to the goof ball and no one will take him seriously. Eventually Mitt becomes the actor in the ads. No one wants to vote for a cartoon. Perfect.
Chevy Chase did this same damage to Gerald Ford back during the classic SNL days.
Rick, Newt, whatever.
GET OBAMA OUT OF OFFICE AND INTO A JAIL CELL!
With that said, the 'issues' link at his campaign site is a little troubling ... the first issue listed is not Obamacare, not energy independence, not even abortion, but ... pornography? Really? When the smears against RS accusing him of wanting to outlaw contraceptives start flying, is that the first item he wants potential supporters that are not necessarily socially conservative to see?
Thank you for sharing your insights, dear brother in Christ!
good point...and might be sent to them.
Post of the morning!
However, I don't think Santorum would be as effectual debater against obambi as Newt would be. But hey, he looks better than Newt to the squishy independents, and that's sadly important in this age of "cult of personality". I believe Mitten's good looks and big smile is the only thing that has carried him this far.
“Numbers Suggest Santorum Could Be Romney’s Worst Nightmare”
The audacity of hope! :)
No one knows what Obama’s baggage is, and if they did the media wouldn’t report it anyway.
Santorum has a lot of state-wide campaigning in Pennsylvania, so his “baggage” has been inspected, and the liberal PA press even gave a loving, TSA style pat-down.
Santorum will have no learning curve. His time in the House and Senate prepared him well. He served a very long time on the Senate Armed Services Committee, and is extremely conversant with the threats facing this nation.
He also was the #3 man in the Senate serving as Republican Conference Chairman, the party’s third-ranking leadership position in the Senate.
So, he has had leadership experience with one of the world’s major legislative bodies.
” I don’t think Santorum would be as effectual debater against obambi as Newt would be..”
No one is as good a debater as Newt — but he has too much baggage and his poll ratings are now horrendous.
Nevertheless, Santorum is acclaimed as having won 1 and possibly 2 of the debates, and he sure as heck outshone Rombo.
People like visuals and simple soundbites. I can see such a list on posters, advertising, in debates, etc. having an impact on the squishy middle.
Now, we need a such a separate list regarding obambi's failed foreign policy. It could start with him bowing and apologizing to world leaders, while contrasting with Reagan's or even BushII's polite but proud of America for setting the example for liberty throughout the world. SO many nations have followed America's example. I have often wondered how many have turned away from totalitarianism since the USA was created.
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