U.S. leverage over Egypt: Use it or lose it

Global Public Square ^ | 2-17-12 | Gabriel Kohan and Mark Donig

[SJackson]

Gabriel Kohan is a former Israel Government Fellow and Mark Donig is a former Dean’s Fellow at the Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya’s Program for the Diplomatic Corps.

In 1967, after the UN Emergency Force (UNEF) in the Sinai Peninsula abandoned its position as Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser postured toward armed conflict with Israel, then-Israeli Ambassador to the U.N., Abba Eban, compared UNEF to “an umbrella that is taken away as soon as it begins to rain.” The international community, rather than use its leverage, willingly cowed to Egypt, and war soon followed.

Today, Eban’s sentiments could be aptly applied to America’s reticence to use its own leverage over Egypt. Just over a year after President Mubarak’s ouster, U.S.-Egyptian relations are in crisis as 19 American NGO workers face trial in Egypt for their work to promote democracy. And yet, American aid still flows to Egypt unabated as Cairo continues to undermine U.S. interests. On its face, the explanation for this paradox is that the United States has been dealt a perplexing hand in Egypt in which it must achieve objectives that appear mutually exclusive. On the one hand, Washington has threatened to withdraw its military aid to the ruling Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) unless Cairo suspends the trial of American citizens. On the other, the U.S. has historically relied on that very same military aid to facilitate and enforce the Camp David Accords between Egypt and Israel, the linchpin of American policy in the Middle East since 1979. Simply put, a full withdrawal of military aid now means that such leverage won’t exist in the future to ensure that the ruling Egyptian government has enough incentive to abide by Camp David, and could be perceived in Cairo as a violation of the peace treaty in and of itself.

[SJackson]

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Any leverage we had was lost about the time of the Cairo apology. Scraps flushed down the toilet when we failed to protect Mubarak. Who would trust the US.

[Capt. Tom]

It is incumbent that the Administration send a message for all to see that when Egypt, or any country, crosses a red line, the United States is prepared to respond with precision and severity.

We are living in Obama's America; and reasonable solutions are likely to be ignored. - tom

[musicman]

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[hinckley buzzard]

The article itself attempts to elucidate a totally incoherent policy. We have no "leverage" if we are unwilling to do anything. So simple, yet so abstruse to the "planet of the apes" mentality pervading Washington.

[RetiredTexasVet]

And just what were those innocent leftist, unionists, etc. doing in Egypt with boatloads of money ... helping the Coptic Christians, talking up the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, etc.?

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks SJackson.

[SunkenCiv]

From the FRchives:

• Egypt trial on U.S. democracy activists set for February 26
• Egypt will not be swayed by aid threat in NGOs case: PM
• Egypt risks 'disastrous' rupture in ties: US senators
• Trashing the Constitution (Bader Ginsburg tells Egyptians to ignore US one)
• U.S. Taxpayers Subsidize More Overseas Mosques (Egypt)
• Egypt Will Try Son Of Former Illinois Congressman
• Egypt to try 19 Americans in case straining ties
• Egypt to prosecute 44 workers, including 19 Americans, after raids on rights groups
• Egypt to try 43 NGO workers, including 19 Americans, over funds
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• U.S. tourists seized in Egypt's Sinai released
• 2 Americans kidnapped in Egypt, officials say
• Gunmen kidnap 2 Americans and an Egyptian in Sinai
• Gunmen kidnap two U.S. tourists in Egypt's Sinai
• Egypt justice minister returns letter from US envoy about citizens barred from travel
• COPTS AND ROBBERS: 3,000 Muslims Burn, Loot Egyptian Christian Village
• French Tourist Gunned Down in Sinai
• Egypt plans to send delegation to U.S. as NGO furor mounts
• Two Copts killed in southern Egypt
• Egypt lawyer: Israel, US plotted protest shooting
• U.S. outrage as Egypt bars Americans from leaving
• U.S. outrage as Egypt bars Americans from leaving
• Washington Power-brokers Defend Egypt After Raids on US Offices
• Egypt bans travel for US official's son, 9 others
• Report: Obama To Speed Up Pace Of American Aid To Muslim Brotherhood-Led Egypt...
• Radical Cleric Omar Bakri Mohammed Threatens Syria with a Wave of Suicide Bombs
• Obama Ambassador To Egypt Meets With Muslim Brotherhood Leaders...
• Obama wants to boost aid to Egypt quickly (Earth to Obama, we're already broke!)
• 'Obama set to accelerate pace of US aid to Egypt'
• Coptic businessman on trial over cartoon: bearded Mickey Mouse and veiled Minnie Mouse
• Coptic (Catholic) priest: We will resist reimposition of jizya to the point of martyrdom
• Fabricated Statements..Cited as Proof Israel Is Behind Tensions between Egypt's Copts, Muslims..
• Kerry calls for US funding to Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood
• The Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian Crisis