Here’s Gingrich’s problem in a nutshell. I’d like to call it the “Chromosone Factor.”
According to the recent Gallup. Romney has a whopping 39 point lead over Gingrich among women voters and 21 points over Santorum. But we are told that Santorum has begun to connect with female voters.
In Florida, Romney opened up a 20-point lead over Gingrich among women and this deficit has widened.
Regardless of the reasons for this deficit, the gender vote is pivotal to both winning the primary and beating Obama in November. It’s now a 2-man race. If Romney pulls it off in MI where Romney is pulling out all stops including bring his wife Ann Romney in Troy today, then its Romney. Game over.
It’s not a two-man race. That’s Romney/Santorum/RINO media spin. The primary is as wide open a race as it’s ever been. A Romney win in MI absolutely does NOT mean it’s all over. I’m surprised any one but a Romneybot would make such a ridiculous claim. Only 2 of the 25 most conservative states as ranked by Gallup have voted yet. Those states could end up looking a lot more like Georgia, with Romney placing in 3rd behind Newt and Rick.
Women are far more liberal/moderate on all political issues than men, and as we’re discovering in this primary, that includes Republican women. If you think you need the women vote to win the general election, then you need a liberal/moderate like Romney.
As far as I know, the Republican president rarely wins the women vote anymore even when they do win the election. Conservatives are fighting against the gender gap. But our strategy has always been to increase turnout and the margin of victory among the groups we’re strong in to counter that.
Bottom line is looking at polling now to determine what the polls will show in 9 months is pointless. Why don’t you pull up polls from 9 months ago, May 2011, and tell us if they represent how people are going to vote this month?