Posted on 03/04/2012 7:29:57 PM PST by BCrago66
All we have at the moment is the tweet:
"Tennessee: Santorum 34, Romney 29, Gingrich 27, Paul 8"
Public Policy Polling will release the PDF with all the pertinent numbers & methodologies & cross-tabs later tonight.
(Excerpt) Read more at twitter.com ...
Two more tweets within minutes:
1) “Tennessee another state where it looks like Romney has the late momentum- leads Santorum 38-34 with folks who decided in last wk”
2) “25% of Tennessee has already voted and those folks report: Santorum 39, Romney 32, Gingrich 23. Early vote may save Santorum”
Romney is
DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED
......when Rick and Newt finally unite Wednesday morn.
Looks like Santorum is holding steady then. Mittens -1. Newt at +9. She going to be close in TN.
If only the sweater Santorum can drop out for God’s sake.
Steady as she goes. Santorum’s come a long way from FL.
Win for all of us to take another big state from Mitt.
It looks like all the voters GIngrich is turning are Santorum voters. For all his focus in Tennessee, he’s not making a dent in ROmney’s support. ROmney got 32% of the “early vote”, and he’s at 32% for the latest poll. Santorum has dropped, and Gingrich has risen.
FOrtunately , Tennessee is a proportional state, so if GIngrich doesn’t actually cause Romney to beat Santorum, taking votes from Santorum doesn’t help Romney win any more delegates.
Except with it getting so close, it is likely that GIngrich will pull down Santorum enough that Romney might come in 1st in some districts he was going to come in 2nd before, giving him 2 delegates instead of 1.
So probably, this late surge by Gingrich will mean that Romney will be closer to the nomination. Gingrich needs to end up in the top 2 in a district to get any delegates for a district, and maybe he’ll get close in a couple; it is unlikely he’ll end up in the top two statewide.
Yeah, then Mitt wins in TN.
You want that?
Woo hoo! This is changing fast. Maybe by Tuesday Newt can get 40% and take this.
Mistake in that one. Romney is now at 29%, which while statistically insignificant, is a slight drop from 32%.
WHich is odd for a poll that says Romney is “coming on”, if his current poll number is lower than the number for early voting.
Maybe the full numbers will make more sense.
No. If Santorum was not running in TN, Newt would beat Romney.
Newt surging! Santorum supporter’s heads in the sand!
Newt is the stronger of those 2 to stop Romney.
More people should realize Newt is our best shot.
I’m waiting to see the breakdown of the 3/3 numbers vs. the 3/4 numbers, as a measure of last minute momentum. I think you’re likely right that Santorum wins, but Gingrich seems to be catching a late surge. But likely too late, as around 25% of the votes have already been banked.
So for TN it looks like 1) Santorum 2) Newt 3) Romney.
I haven’t voted yet and my wife and myself will make two more for Newt!
Delegates. Delegates. Delegates. That’s the name of the game,
Newt to be interviewed on Fox and Friends and Squawkbox(CNBC) tomorrow morning at 7am(Eastern)!
Gingrich is likely to finish third in TN, given these numbers.
Romney’s polling stronger than him with Santorum in, that’s by no means certain.
What we do know is that Santorum would have 50-60+ percent vs Romney and TN would be a landslide for him if Newt were to drop out.
As is, Santorum should take this, with Newt third.
He’s running third here in Tennessee.
Evidence would suggest that Santorum is the stronger of the two.
I’m not really sure why the Santorum should drop for Newt - Newt hasn’t beaten him anywhere since Florida.
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