So, Romney is ahead of all the other candidates combined?
And if Newt successfully contests Florida’s delegate allocation, he could take a significant chunk of Romney’s 50 delegates.
It just baffles me how two people can look at the same information, and come away with two diametrically opposed views.
Newt has now won his past home state and a neighbor state.
Santorum has won a number of states, and has nearly 50% more delegates.
Santorum just won three of ten states, none of which were his home state.
Newt just won one of ten states, that WAS his old home state.
How does this translate to Newt actually being in a better position going down the road? What has he won recently that wasn’t his home state?
All this spin is going to accomplish, is Newt’s supporters viewing him in an unrealistic light, and keeping him in just long enough to ensure Romney the nomination.
Newt IS NOT playing the role of a statesman here. He is now playing the role of an egotistical spoiler that will sell out Conservatism in the end.
Nobody but Romney will win, if Newt persists. It is crystal clear he has failed. I can’t change that. You can’t change that. Only the voters can change that, and Newt isn’t winning them over.
Super Tuesday is over. The voters have had their say.
Newt..., please come to your senses.
The popular vote of Rick + Newt now equals 3,784,760 compared to Romney’s 3,194,834. I would assume Ron Paul’s 900,099 would split evenly between conservatives and liberals. So even though us conservatives are the majority of voters, the elites want us to “come around” to Romney. Yeah, right.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_vote_count.html
Below shows how the rest of the states give Romney a much less favorable map than he’s had so far. The states are ranked according to Gallup polling from most conservative to least. Almost half the remaining delegates come from the conservative states. Romney only won two of those so far, both caucuses, but only Missouri and Kansas remain of those that are caucuses. He will win Utah, but I don’t know about any others. North Carolina and Pennsylvania from the moderate states should be competitive for Santorum/Gingrich. So there are about 757 delegates to go from states that I think should favor them (although I’m not clear which of the conservative states are Romney-favorable Mormonland).
Romney’s got a good shot at the remaining 659 delegates from other moderate and liberal states and Utah, but even if he got all of them, those alone wouldn’t get him a majority of delegates. So it all comes down to the margin of victory and delegate allocation rules. It doesn’t look like Romney has an easy path to getting a majority of delegates. And there only 3 or 4 caucus states left, which hurts Ron Paul’s ability to get more delegates.
Alabama is WTA, so if Newt takes it, its 50 WTA delegates cancel out Romney’s from Florida. Romney’s next biggest delegate win was Virginia which of course cannot be repeated. Massachusetts was the next biggest for him although WTA Utah will beat that with 40. He’ll also pocket about 86 in DE, NJ and D.C. which are all WTA so that’s a strong spot for Romney. I’d like to see an analysis of who is likely to win these remaining states.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/152459/Mississippi-Conservative-State-Liberal.aspx
TOTAL DELEGATES BY STATE (1144 needed to win):
CON 909 (670 to go)
MOD 661 (278 to go)
LIB 605 (468 to go)
??? 32
CON Mississippi (primary) - 40
CON Utah (primary) - 40 (WTA)
*VOTED* CON Wyoming (caucus) - 29 [ROMNEY]
CON Alabama (primary) - 50 (WTA)
CON Louisiana (primary) - 46
CON Arkansas (primary) - 36
*VOTED* CON Oklahoma (primary) - 43 (WTA) [SANTORUM]
CON Nebraska (primary) - 35
*VOTED* CON Idaho (caucus) - 32 [ROMNEY]
*VOTED* CON Tennessee (primary) - 58 (WTA) [SANTORUM]
*VOTED* CON South Carolina (primary) – 25 [GINGRICH]
*VOTED* CON North Dakota (caucus) - 28 [SANTORUM]
CON South Dakota (primary) - 28
CON Kansas (caucus) - 40
CON Texas (primary) - 155
*VOTED* CON Georgia (primary) - 76 [GINGRICH]
CON Indiana (primary) - 46
CON West Virginia (primary) - 31
CON Montana (primary) - 26
CON Missouri (caucus) – 52
CON Kentucky (primary) - 45
MOD North Carolina (primary) - 55
*VOTED* MOD Ohio (primary) - 66 [ROMNEY]
*VOTED* MOD Virginia (primary) - 49 [ROMNEY]
*VOTED* MOD Arizona (primary) - 29 (WTA) [ROMNEY]
*VOTED* MOD Florida (primary) - 50 (WTA) [ROMNEY]
*VOTED* MOD Iowa (caucus) – 28 [SANTORUM]
*VOTED* MOD Michigan (primary) - 30 [ROMNEY]
MOD New Mexico (primary) - 23
MOD Pennsylvania (primary) - 72
MOD Wisconsin (primary) - 42
*VOTED* MOD Colorado (caucus) - 36 [SANTORUM]
*VOTED* MOD Minnesota (caucus) - 40 [SANTORUM]
MOD Delaware (primary) - 17 (WTA)
*VOTED* MOD Nevada (caucus) - 28 [ROMNEY]
MOD Illinois (primary) - 69
*VOTED* MOD Alaska (caucus) - 27 [ROMNEY]
LIB Maryland (primary) - 37
*VOTED* LIB Maine (caucus) - 24 [ROMNEY]
*VOTED* LIB Vermont (primary) - 17 [ROMNEY]
LIB Connecticut (primary) - 28
*VOTED* LIB New Hampshire (primary) – 12 [ROMNEY]
LIB Rhode Island (primary) - 19
LIB New Jersey (primary) - 50 (WTA)
LIB California (primary) - 172
LIB Hawaii (caucus) - 20
LIB New York (primary) - 95
*VOTED* LIB Washington (caucus) - 43 [ROMNEY]
LIB Oregon (primary) - 28
*VOTED* LIB Massachusetts (primary) - 41 [ROMNEY]
LIB District of Columbia (primary) - 19 (WTA)
??? U.S. Virgin Islands (caucus) - 9
??? Puerto Rico (primary) - 23
I can see why Newt would agree with the sources that claim he is not ahead of Santorum in the delegate vote.
Right now the Romney army has it’s artillery trained on Santorum, why would he pop his head up and holler...”Hey, over here...over here”