Posted on 03/09/2012 9:47:44 AM PST by parksstp
Rasmussen Reports’ first Republican primary survey in Mississippi shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leading his closest competitors by eight points. A new statewide telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters in the Magnolia State shows Romney with 35% of the vote, while former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich each draw support from 27%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs last with six percent (6%). One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
This Mississippi survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Looks like Saint Rick is losing Newtmentom.
LLS
It’s divide and conquer. 54% Anti-Romney vote split evenly.
But since the Newtbots are too stubborn to realize Newt has 0, ZERO, NADA, ZILCH, traction in any Non-Interstate 20 state, they will suicide bomb us into getting Romney as the nominee.
In the event of a tie, aren’t the names supposed to be alphabetized?
Romney, Newt, Santorum, then Nut?
Even in a state like Mississippi, there will always be that third of the registered GOP who are establishment schlub types. How else do you think they gave us Thad Cochran and Trent Lott?
This is just one isolated point as far as it goes - do we have any context, such as previous polls so we can try to read a trend?
If this poll is accurate, Romney better be careful. He needs Gingrich to come back at this point. Better to lay low and peel votes off Santorum, so Gingrich can rise.
I have to agree with your post. Newt is toast and giving us Romney due to his super, duper ego. I like Newt, but, he is spoiling this for us. If he had done better, and not crashed and burned - then I would’ve supported him. However, he can’t touch Romney now - and Rick has a chance, if only Newt would put country first.
If I were Gingrich, or his campaign manager, this would be my strategy:
Hit on three issues, constantly, over and over and over:
1) Gas prices, and energy production in general.
2) The debt and deficits.
3) Repealing ObamaCare.
Constantly. Every speech, every venue, every crowd. Blanket the airwaves with ads to these effect.
In Alabama, I might also make an occasional comment about supporting the state with their new immigration law, too.
Ricky has been losing it since 7 - 10 days before Super Tuesday which was his high watermark.
You know, I see comments like this, and I wonder whether people like you really don't understand the difference between primaries and general elections.
yeah, and when he brings up the Alabama immigration law, the other candidates can jump on him that he supports amnesty for those illegals that have managed to break the law the longest (20+ years).
No amount of strategy will ever help Newt with his real problem which is lack of trust and likeability. He can talk conservative things out of his mouth all day long, but there will be SUBSTANTIAL numbers of people who will not TRUST him.
TRUST and LIKEABILITY are REQUIRED to get Elected President. No one has EVER been elected without the General Electorate believing the candidate possessed those 2 traits. Newt doesn’t have them. It’s a fact. Santorum does. It’s a fact.
Nope, and noway:
That's very true. Santorum at his high mark was a shoe in to win Ohio, and should also have won Michigan.
The Santoroons can whine about "Newt stealing votes from Santorum" (which, wrongly, assumes that all Newt's support would have gone to Santorum had Newt bowed out - a lot of those folks might not even have voted at all), but the fact remains that Santorum lost Michigan and Ohio because he is, in fact, seeing his support level erode.
At his high-water mark, Santorum was doing so well because a lot of people beyond the hard-core politicoevangelical base of the So-Con wing of the Party were thinking, "well, hey, he won in Minnesota, Colorado, and a few other states, so let's take a look at him as a viable non-Romney."
Even I was looking at him much more closely (and defending him on the internet) back then. But since then, he has basically shown that he doesn't have any fire discipline, and is pretty much destined to tick off anybody who is NOT part of the hard-core politicoevangelical So-Con portion of the base. Which makes him unelectable (and I say this as someone pretty far to the Right on social issues myself, probably more so than most FReepers reading this).
There's also the fact that Newt actually has more pledged delegates than Santorum - despite the disparity in primaries won. When Newt talked about a "strategy" for the primaries, he meant it. Part of his choices in where to campaign, I've noticed, doesn't *just* seem to centre about where he thinks he will do well, but where there are actual delegates to be had. Why waste time in a Missouri primary that awards not a single delegate? Why waste time in Maine, where they're still trying to figure out how to apportion? Why spend money in Alaska which has 14 total delegates, when you can invest that money in Oklahoma, eek out a statistical third, and still come away with one less delegate than the winner, and one less than you would have gotten from winning Alaska?
IMHO Rick is out jousting at windmills with this morality stuff.
Newt is the only guy who seems to stay focused on the matters of actual concern this election cycle.
Ricky has half the nation believing that we want to ban birth control just because he couldn’t resist demonstrating how pious he is when the Obama administration threw him a red herring.
He is not ready for prime time.
Newt is in 2nd place ahead of Santorum. Why would Newt quit?
Seems someone below him should quit.
Yep.
And that first ‘someone’ should be Ron Paul.
7%?
Why is this man still in the race?
Does Romney really need the cover that badly?
Oh I do. To the point I’ve studied all of the voting demographics of most of the states.
To be sure, a Newt candidacy would at a minimum carry every McCain state from 2008. North Carolina and Indiana are also pretty much being ceded by the Democrats.
The problems come in FL, VA, and OH. Newt was slaughtered along the I-4 corridor by Romney and did absolutely horrible among Seniors, Hispanics, and Women. While it wouldn’t kill him in the states I just mentioned, he would almost be forced to be a Floridian on the ticket just to be safe. Santorum, who would also look to a Floridian, at least in the demographics was not poisonous with women, he just didn’t really run in FL since it was WTA. Both would kill in the Panhandle where Obama did poorly, but FL is always won along the I-4 corridor. 53% of the voting electorate in FL is female.
Then there’s OH. Santorum won incredibly strong in the areas the Republican need to win to offset the margins in Cleveland. In fact, Santorum was so strong with his margins in the conservative parts, he nearly won the state despite huge deficits in both Cleveland and Cincy. I don’t think either Newt nor Romney are going to perform at the level they need to to carry OH, which would need to be closer to 2004, where Bush ran up a 371,000 vote advantage outside of Kerry’s 200,000 vote advantage in Cleveland. Last time, McCain and Obama ran dead even outside of Cleveland. That won’t be enough.
Then there’s VA. Santorum would pick up the areas McCain did less well than Bush from 2004. I also think Santorum has performed well in the cities and suburbs than Newt, who has been blown out by Romney everywhere a major population center exists. That doesn’t bode well for Northern VA.
But assuming all this and all the states above, which equate to 266 Electoral votes, there remains 1 Additional state both will have to carry to win, and it must come from one of the following (NH, PA, MI, WI, IA, NM, CO, NV).
New Hampsire is out for everyone, except Romney. Santorum has an edge in PA, but Gingrich would not do as well in the Philly suburbs (Berks, Montgomery, Delaware, Bucks, Chester). MI is probably out for everyone. WI is a toss-up, but Santorum’s union past helps him more than it helps Newt here. IA is a prime state for Santorum to carry if there are enough Republicans that haven’t fled the state due to unemployment. NV is also probably out for both. Santorum, however, showed strength in Colorado and has the backing of Tom Tancredo for being strongest on the immigration stances. NM is a toss-up, but with high numbers of Seniors, Hispanics, and Women, may pose just as much a problem for Newt as it would in Florida.
Because of the battleground states and the voting demographics, I give the edge to Santorum to get to 270. I don’t see how Newt gets there.
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