“any scenario I mentioned is equally probable”
Your are entitled to your opinion. But i disagree.
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I wrote alternate possible scenarios based strictly on what we know, not on what I want to be true.
If you have a link to any legitimate statement from an eye-witness who saw the initial confrontation and the start of the fight then please provide it. I have no problem accepting any truth.
Absent that, you can be no more certain than anybody else.