Think Elian Gonzalez in 2000. That nasty little affair drew off so much of the Cuban vote that Gore ended up losing Florida by just a teeny-weeny bit, which cost him the election. This could be almost exactly the same thing, with the overall hispanic vote affected.
I think where your analysis is questionable is that so many whites in 2000 just saw little Elian as an unwanted illegal immigrant who should go back to “his father,” rather than a victim of communist political persecution. Similarly, in 2005 many viewed Terri Schindler Schiavo of FL as an unwanted woman on life support, and she was neither. The American people are too confused to understand the simplest points.