Hi analysis does not square with just about everything else I’ve read. He’s giving states to Obama that are squarely up in the air or leaning Republican.
Rove is a jackass anyway.
Rove may be factoring in Demonrat vote fraud (to include under counting of military votes) which is likely to reach unprecedented dimensions this time around. The Osama Obama campaign has an army of 300,000 plotting it right now.
I'd say he's making states a Republican will probably carry into leaning Republican or toss-up states. But taking into account the advantages of incumbency, I'd say Obama stands a pretty good chance of carrying OH, PA, and MI. It's certainly not a lock, but a Republican will have to work hard to win those states.
Here's an alternative map that may be more plausible:
It's not just "support' ~ you can buy that, but what do you do when you win the delegates in a state with fewer votes than you got in 2008?
You can win if and only if you can get people to literally support you and go door to door and stick up signs and create some sense that there's something there!
So, after all that work Rove has to admit his boy is a loser.
I could have told him that.