Battleground Poll: Obama, Romney in dead heat (Romney 48, Obama 47)

Politico ^ | 05/07/2012 | James Hohmann

[SeekAndFind]

See full poll results here:

http://www.politico.com/polls/politico-george-washington-university-battleground-poll.html

[BipolarBob]

What a shocker! Obama and Obama-lite tied.

[Marathoner]

Obama holds double-digit leads over the presumptive Republican nominee on issues such as who will better handle foreign policy and who will stand up for the middle class and on “sharing your values.”

You have got to be sh##ting me. Are there that many freaking Marxists in this country?

[KansasGirl]

Did they over poll Rats? I don’t see how if Romney has a 10 pt. lead among independents that the race could be tied.

[KansasGirl]

People are really dumb aren’t they? Obama is DESTROYING the middle class.

[SueRae]

politico and AP/Al-Reuters will be calling it a dead heat if it were 55/40..

[stylin19a]

so, which side has the dead voters ?

“What is the likelihood of your voting in the elections to be held this November— are you extremely likely,
very likely, somewhat likely, or not very likely at all to vote?
Extremely Likely ................................................ 76%
(CONTINUE) Very Likely ........................................................ 21%
Somewhat Likely.................................................. 4%”

[stylin19a]

oops...sorry...my original was from February.
This is from April-May

What is the likelihood of your voting in the elections to be held this November— are you extremely likely,
very likely, somewhat likely, or not very likely at all to vote?
Extremely Likely ..................................................... 72%
(CONTINUE) Very Likely .............................................................. 24%
Somewhat Likely ....................................................... 4%

[txrefugee]

One admirable thing about the French is that their presidential elections are mercifully short. Our two-year+ election campaigns are becoming more ludicrous with each election. Even the Mexicans are more efficient, with their elections coming up in seven weeks.

[ConservativeStatement]

From late March concerning an Ohio senate race: “As is the case with President Barack Obama’s lead in the White House race, the Democratic margin is made up almost completely of the votes of women,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “

[Gaffer]

No. It looks like they polled MSNBC, ABC, CBS and NBC along with the coffee guy at Politico. Hell, they probably polled the janitor at GWU, too.

[proxy_user]

Obama’s campaign is in deep trouble, and a Romney landslide is possible. Many people who tell pollsters they support Obama are just giving the politically correct answer, and will either stay home or vote for Romney in the privacy of the voting booth. They may even tell exit pollsters they voted for Obama.

[Jack Hydrazine]

“You have got to be sh##ting me. Are there that many freaking Marxists in this country?”

60%+ of our budget goes to entitlements. Why should they not be Marxists?

[KansasGirl]

Still doesn’t answer the question. If Obama leads by 7 among women and Romney by 7 among men, it’s a wash, and Romney leads by 10 among independents. If the same number of women and men, and Republicans and Democrats were polled, Romney should be winning unless Obama gets Republican votes or more Rats. Were polled than Republicans.

Anyone know the party breakdown for this poll?

[KansasGirl]

This was said over and over in the lead up to the 2008 election and turned out not to be true.

[KansasGirl]

Sorry, post number 15 was meant as a reply for you ConservativeStatement.

[nathanbedford]

On May 2, I published a reply which contained the following two paragraphs:

"Today's employment numbers, confirmed by Rasmussen's polling on unemployment, about to be echoed Friday by the larger employment numbers for April, following on the heels of the downward revision of GDP, coupled with high gas prices at the pump, all spell defeat for the incumbent.

"I think in retrospect you will see this moment as the turning point in the polls and all of those yellow states on the electoral college map will go to light blue and even the light blue states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will turn yellow."

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2879045/posts

This is the second nationwide poll that puts the candidates in this position and it is in my judgment that it is not the stasis position but actually the crossing of the lines. Although the trends will not be straight-line I think we will see an increasing momentum for Romney.

As this trend becomes increasingly clear to Obama by virtue of his internals (which explains his behavior in recent weeks), he is much more likely to pull the trigger on an October Surprise:

Nevermind the Ides of March Beware The Surprises of October

[ConservativeDude]

Many people who tell pollsters they support Obama are just giving the politically correct answer”

I don’t disagree...but...just how do we know that to be true?

[ilgipper]

It has to be an oversampling of Dems. I wonder if all these polls are taking into account the current shrinking of the Dem voter rolls and growth of independent and GOP? Given that Romney shows the lead among independents, it is hard to believe this poll.

Of course, I am estimating that at this stage, the fact that Obama is a few ticks below 50% and that Romney is ahead are both good signs, regardless of the poll internals.