Posted on 05/08/2012 6:42:13 AM PDT by xzins
WHAT WILL RON PAUL DO? By Roger Stone
In 1977 as Treasurer of the National Conservative Political Action Committee, I went to Houston Texas to work in the Special Election campaign of Ron Paul, the first time he was elected to Congress. I have long admired his faith in and consistent support of the US Constitution and the proper limits of government. I have also always admired his willingness to go against the grain and sometimes tell the unpopular truth.
Congress Paul was a little disingenuous when he told the Washington Post that he would decide about an independent candidacy for President after the votes are counted at the National Republican Convention in Tampa. Congressman Paul knows full well that the Libertarian Party will choose it's likely nominee, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, at their May Convention in Las Vegas. The Libertarian Party nominee will be on the ballot in all 50 states as they were in 2008.
Paul has clearly committed himself to attending and participating in the Republican Party Convention in August. Americans Elect will have designated their nominee who could also very well have ballot access in 50 states by June precluding another national ballot position from the Texas Congressman. Ron Paul knows full well that an effort to achieve 50 state ballot access - or anything like it - launched after the Republican National Convention is not legally, organizationally or financially feasible. Even Paul guru Lew Rockwell would admit this.
In truth, Congressman Paul had his son's aspirations and place in the Republican establish hierarchy in mind when he decided not to pursue a third-party candidacy in 2012. Rand Paul clear;y has his own Presidential ambitions but a 2016 US Senate re-election and Kentucky's early filing deadline may make this problematic.
Here is Ron Paul's dilemma. He cannot endorse Mitt Romney without destroying the very essence of what Ron Paul is - a man of principle rather than a politician playing party ball. Such an endorsement would truly demoralize and enrage many of Ron Paul's supporters and donors.
At the same time, Governor Gary Johnson will be calling for the "continuation of the Ron Paul revolution" in the fall election presumably with a Vice Presidential running mate access to funds and / or celebrity.
A new PPP poll shows Johnson - who is yet to receive any substantial national media coverage, other than this excellent clip on the Colbert Report is at 7% in a national race with Obama and Romney. A previous PPP poll showed Johnson at 9%, both numbers are within the margin of error. That Johnson has an excellent opportunity with additional media exposure to get to 10% of the vote or more.
According to PPP, the votes Johnson receives come disproportionately from Romney, although he does poll 2% from Obama. 39% of Johnson voters would support Romney if Johnson weren't in the picture, while only 18% would go for Obama. When Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is included, Obama's lead over Romney expands to 7 points at 46-39, with Johnson taking 7%. Gary Johnson can clearly have an impact of the 2012 election.
If Johnson gets 5% in 2012, the Libertarian nominee in 2016 will be eligible to get the same $90 million that the Republicans and Democrats get from the Federal Treasury for the General Election. If Johnson and his running mate poll at 15% they would both have to be admitted to the televised presidential debates.
Remembering that Congressman Paul and Governor Johnson are the only two candidates who oppose the war in Afghanistan, would truly slash Federal spending and debt, eliminate taxes, kill the Patriot Act, end the expensive and failed "War on Drugs," and would legalize marijuana, it would be hard to Congressman Paul to explain his endorsement of Mitt Romney.
The important question really is not "what will Ron Paul do" but "where do Ron Paul voters go?" The Ron Paul voters have disdain for Romney as a big government establishment Republican who is wrong on foreign policy, civil liberties, and economics. It is Gary Johnson's job to attract these voters, and he will. Ron Paul's endorsement of Romney would not wins these votes but Ron Paul's endorsement of Johnson will cement a movement and set the stage for history making.
At the same time, Ron Paul's failure to endorse the one candidate who is carrying the torch for his agenda in the name of partisan politics would be hard to fathom.
I just thought I knew a lot.
The PPP Johnson poll is a couple weeks old now, but it is logical to assume that Ron Paul supporters would disproportionately go to Johnson.
Even if Paul endorses Romney, which, as the article points out, will be hard for a principle-based Ron Paul to do.
This takes away from Romney support and with other candidates, including CP’s Virgil Goode, it is another reason why Romney is going to fail.
Unless the GOP wants to fail (which they might given the economy), they will replace Romney at the convention.
See: Ross Perot 1992.
Therefore, if we know going in that Romney will lose, then WHY STICK with Romney.
If Perot teaches us that Romney loses, then change the equation.
Dump Romney!
Why do they always trot out this hackneyed crap? What about real RKBA? Real tax reform? Restoring the FedGov to it's strict Constitutional limts? Real property Rights. Real freedom of Religion including the Right to not allow same sex marriage in their Churches...
Ron Johnson is going to prove to be about as viable on the Libertarian ticket as Bob Barr was in ‘08. A blip on the radar, nothing more.
Ron Paul would provide a much more serious challenge should he choose to pursue it. But I think some deal involving his son is in the works.
Is he ‘still’ in this? If so; ‘still’ getting Secret Service protection? (Have not heard any complaints of wasting our money from Fox News - as was Newt so criticized for doing so.) What part of the the pie might he want and perhaps get? If any. . .
Thought the Paul’s and Romney’s pretty good friends. . .if true; and suspect it is; how hard can it be?
I agree. There is no good reason for talking about marijuana use instead of RKBA other than propaganda purposes.
In the polls I’ve been looking at, even though Johnson and Goode are already selected candidates, they don’t poll except on Obama and Romney. The real ballot people will see will have Johnson and Goode on it.
I do believe lots of Paul’s support will gravitate to Johnson.
I don’t know about that sat sentence.
I’m still holding out hope for a brokered convention.
They won’t poll if the MSM ignores them. If either Goode or Johnson start getting air-time, that will change.
Gotta rise above the static. Not sure either can do so by just looking at their respective personalities...
The pollsters aren’t putting their names in. They are asking:
obama
romney
3rd party
Put Gary Johnson in that poll and ask yourself what the people of New Mexico will do?
Put Virgil Goode in that poll and what will be people of Virginia do?
The pollsters aren’t putting their names in. They are asking:
obama
romney
3rd party
Put Gary Johnson in that poll and ask yourself what the people of New Mexico will do?
Put Virgil Goode in that poll and what will THE people of Virginia do?
Thank you for sharing your insights, dear brother in Christ!
Happy Mom’s Week, Sister!
Thank you!
Rasmussen had a three way poll and Paul get 13%. I can’t wait to see what Obambi will do to screw with the judges in America in a second term. A bunch of Free Republic folks got upset with GWB because he did not veto spending BUT he did get Roberts as chief justice of the supreme court. He tried to insitute something like the Social Securtiy programs of Australia and Chili only to have loyal Republicans, like Luger and Hastert to shoot it down. someone tell the Ron Paul folks he has been an earmark congressman right along with Hastert and Gingrich.
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