Just for the purposes of this discussion, I decided to list the states by order of their voting preference in a 20-year period (counting 6 Presidential elections between 1988-2008):
“Perfect 6 (voted GOP all years in the period)” (13 states)
Alabama
Alaska
Idaho
Kansas
Mississippi
Nebraska
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Texas
Utah
Wyoming
“5 out of 6” (6 states)
Arizona (all but 1996)
Georgia (all but 1992)
Indiana (all but 2008)
Montana (all but 1992)
North Carolina (all but 2008)
Virginia (all but 2008)
“4 out of 6” (7 states)
Arkansas (all but 1992 & 1996)
Colorado (all but 1992 & 2008)
Florida (all but 1996 & 2008)
Kentucky (all but 1992 & 1996)
Louisiana (all but 1992 & 1996)
Missouri (all but 1992 & 1996)
Tennessee (all but 1992 & 1996)
“Half/Average (equal to 3 elections won by Dems nationally and 3 by GOP)” (3 states)
Nevada (against GOP in 1992, 1996, 2008)
Ohio (against GOP in 1992, 1996, 2008)
West Virginia (against GOP in 1988, 1992, 1996)
“2 out of 6” (2 states)
New Hampshire (voted GOP only in 1988 & 2000)
New Mexico (voted GOP only in 1988 & 2004)
“1 out of 6 (hostile to GOP Presidential candidates)” (11 states)
California (last voted GOP in 1988)
Connecticut (last voted GOP in 1988)
Delaware (last voted GOP in 1988)
Illinois (last voted GOP in 1988)
Iowa (last voted GOP in 2004, and before that not since 1984)
Maine (last voted GOP in 1988)
Maryland (last voted GOP in 1988)
Michigan (last voted GOP in 1988)
New Jersey (last voted GOP in 1988)
Pennsylvania (last voted GOP in 1988)
Vermont (last voted GOP in 1988)
“Rotten Zero (viscerally opposed to GOP Presidential candidates)” (8 states + DC)
District of Columbia (never cast a vote for GOP for President)
Hawaii (last voted GOP in 1984)
Massachusetts (last voted GOP in 1984)
Minnesota (last voted GOP in 1972) — current longest record for voting against GOP Presidential nominee
New York (last voted GOP in 1984)
Oregon (last voted GOP in 1984)
Rhode Island (last voted GOP in 1984)
Washington (last voted GOP in 1984)
Wisconsin (last voted GOP in 1984)
Now this exclusively address their Presidential preference and doesn’t go into their votes for Governor, Senator, Congress, legislature, etc.
In listing this, I would obviously tend to give more credence to those who’ve voted the most for the GOP and least for those that haven’t. I’ll mention the “Big 3” early primary/Caucus states...
As you can see, South Carolina does deserve considerable credibility on picking a nominee as they have been consistently pro-GOP (not since 1976 have they voted Democrat, and before that, 1960). Not necessarily an argument that it deserves the definitive first position in early voting states, but at least it can make the case.
Now look at New Hampshire. It has only voted twice for the GOP candidate in the period covered (1988, which ended the period when it was a more GOP-leaning state Presidentially, and as of this year, lasted voted GOP in 2000 (and only by a slim plurality, with normal Gore voters getting peeled off to Nader) and didn’t even stick with the incumbent in 2004, even as Dubya got a slightly higher % of the vote). In other words, I wouldn’t even call NH a swing state with that record (and voted for the Democrat in 2008 with over 54% of the vote, higher than the national average - McCain carried not even a single county, a first for a GOP candidate in the state since at least the 19th century - even Bob Dole & Barry Goldwater carried at least 1 county). Clearly it is a reliable Democrat state. It has no business being a determining factor for a GOP Presidential candidate and should be swiftly jettisoned as an “early state.” What’s the worst that can happen ? They vote Democrat as they have in every election, save 1, beginning in 1992 ?
Iowa is even worse. Aside from 2004, when GW Bush won by a plurality, it lasted voted GOP for President way back in 1984. It voted 54% for the Democrat in 2008, higher than the national average. It should have even lesser of a say than New Hampshire.
We see Texas staring out at us as a “perfect 6” state, but how often has it even figured as a major player in deciding the nominee ? Democrat New Hampshire is make or break for the GOP nominee, but reliably GOP Texas isn’t ? There’s something seriously wrong there. Texas, as the largest reliably GOP state, should have an equally BIG say.
Anyway, just a few points to augment yours.
Your “draft” idea is interesting but I fail to see how Romney (or anyone with that much establishment support) would have failed to get himself so drafted whatever the process is.
If you want to stop one RINO from getting a plurality over 2 or 3 Conservatives the best way is a preferential ballot. The best way under the current rules would have been the loser in third place dropping out while there was still a chance but despite his anti-Romney rhetoric he obviously didn’t give a damn who the nominee was if it wasn’t himself.
Your idea of having conservative states vote first is a good one. Probably more likely to be considered by our unimaginative party leaders. IA and NH going first every time is total BS that can’t be justified, I don’t think they even try to they just whine they need the tourism every 4 years.
The OP’s idea of giving Republican states significantly more delegates I don’t like much. Many of us are stuck in states where we are outnumbered. Giving Texas 4 times as many delegates as Cali despite the about same # of Republicans would be grossly unfair and unrepresentative. (McCain 4.5 Mil votes in TX 5 Mil in CA)
I would base the state’s number of delegates on it’s number of Republicans, using the results of the last POTUS election would be fine with me. So if CA got 50 delegates, Texas would get 45. Florida would get 40. Illinois would get 20. ect. smaller states would get a little boost so they matter and DC and the territories would get a minimal number just so they’re represented.
Another idea, strict proportional allocation of delegates. If there are 20 delegates in the state and you get 10% of the vote you get 2 delegates, period.
No more winner take all or any of these silly caucus states that Ron Paul is manipulating. That way if Romney won about 40% he’d have about 40% of the delegates. No way he’d get a majority.
I really think every state should have the same process whatever it is. We’re political junkies and this arcane nonsense makes our heads hurt. And the haphazard and heavily spaced scheduling is absurd. The state parties need to be dictated to and given the method and date when they will hold the primary. No 50 states doing whatever they want. Don’t play ball and your delegates don’t get seated, period. I guarantee you they will all play ball in due course. Sorry Iowa.
I don’t know about the 2/3 rule. The wreaked havoc with the rats when they had it. Today with the conventions being on TV that could lead to a very embarrassing debacle. I could see maybe a 55% threshold to prevent someone from squeaking in but not as high as 67%.