Posted on 05/18/2012 9:57:57 AM PDT by Steelfish
Analysis: Three States Stand Out In 2012 Presidential Election
By Paul West May 18, 2012 WASHINGTON -- The presidential candidates have just placed their opening bets, and three states stand out as keys to the 2012 election: Ohio, Virginia and, perhaps surprisingly, Iowa.
Romney’s first TV ad of the general election campaign, which debuts Friday, will air in four states, including Ohio, Virginia and Iowa. (Notably, it repeats his pledge to “end Obamacare,” the law based on his Massachusetts model). The Romney campaign wouldn’t confirm the scope of the buy but didn’t wave off an attempt to confirm James Hohmann’s report in Politico, which listed that trio of states, plus North Carolina. President Obama included Ohio, Virginia and Iowa in his most recent buy as well.
It is practically impossible for Romney to capture the presidency without carrying Ohio and Virginia. Obama took both in 2008, and if he wins either again, he’s almost surely going to being reelected.
Of greater interest in the Romney buy, however, were the other states he’s hitting.
One is Iowa, an opportunity state for the Republican challenger. In addition to taking four larger states away from Obama (Ohio, Virginia, Florida and North Carolina), he also needs to carry at least one more smaller, Obama ‘08 state. The former governor made a campaign stop this week in Iowa, which went narrowly Republican in the 2004 presidential election, then swung to Obama in 2008.
Thanks in part to a rebound in the farm sector, the state’s economy is humming, with an unemployment rate, at 5.1%, among the lowest in the nation. But Republicans made big strides in the 2010 election, recapturing the governor's mansion and gaining ground in the Legislature, and Romney clearly sees an opening.
(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...
Nice to live in a state that will matter, the Old Dominion, but it sucks because the robo calls are starting to come in. Just a few days ago I got one from I believe the NRA but I hunged up the phone after a few words from the voice recording.
Hey LA Times, that’s four states,not three! Must be California’s New Math!
Sorry, It’s five states, not four or three.
We need a brokered convention so we can take advantage of this and elect someone who ISNT a socialist.
F Romney and the GOP-e
I think Romney will carry FL, NC, VA, OH, PA, IA, and WI.
And because of...?
Any polling data?
You have gotten it dead right on the button. Romney will carry Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida and Iowa with ease. Obama will only carry between eight and twelve states, if that many. Why? Simple, Obama is a devoted enemy of the state (that means Obama hates the USA) and wishes to destroy both the economy and the country with every fiber in his evil being. End of story.
Romney is running unopposed and TX an CA haven't voted yet. Romney will have the delegates he needs to win on the first ballot.
Even if the convention goes past the first ballot, who would be the true conservative poised to wrest the nomination away from Romney?
It isn't even possible to suggest someone. There is no one out there.
It is time to get real.
Indiana, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina,Virginia, and New Hampshire.
Indiana, Florida, NC and Virginia are easily done.
So that leaves Ohio and New Hampshire.
F Romney and the GOP-e
Must be nice there in la la land.
I think Zero will win 7 states out of the 57 states we had in 2008.
This is like a competition between a big A-hole and a lesser A-hole.
Go lesser A-hole!
>> a state that will matter, the Old Dominion <<
Ever since Bob McDonnell carried Fairfax County in 2009, I’ve been convinced that the GOP will sweep the Commonwealth in 2012, the idiotic Virgil Goode to the contrary not withstanding. Side benefit: George Allen returns to the Senate.
I’m also persuaded that the Rubio-Bush coalition can deliver FL without too much difficulty. Side benefit: Connie Mack “The 4th” should be able to whip FL’s lame excuse for a Senator, Bill Nelson.
Then, last week’s huge anti-homo vote in NC, alongside Big Ø’s next-day exit from the closet, tells me that the Tarheel state [or do we call it the Old North State?] is also safely in the bag for the GOP.
Ohio? Don’t know much about it. But given the state’s super-high unemployment rate, maybe there’s hope that a very strong Josh Mandel senate campaign can pull Romney over the finish line!
PS: Why worry about those VA robo calls? In my Ole Virginny Home, they all go to a 1980’s-style answering machine. Problem solved.
A combination of polling data, elections since 2008, and general mood of the nation.
I think the demographics of each state will be the crucial issue. Unfortunately, politics in the US is becoming less of ideas and more of special interest groups.
Obama is exploiting this to the hilt: Women’s vote; student vote, Muslim immigrant vote (major factor in MI); Abortion vote; Black vote; Hispanic vote, Anti-War vote, Welfare dependent vote, Social Security recipient vote, Single mother’s vote, Gay and Lesbian vote, 99% Occupy Wall Street vote; Union vote, and the list goes on.
I agree that this is the case and that it is unfortunate.
However there is opportunity here. The 'Rat Party used to claim to represent working people and middle-class people in general. No more. Now the 'Rats are explicitly a weird coalition party of urban moochers, special pleading "victim" groups, young white metrosexual college grads, and rich lefty ideologues.
Working and middle-class blacks and latinos (as well as whites) are seeing their economic futures diminished by 'Rat policies. In return all they get is some hate-whitey rhetoric. Meanwhile Social Security and Medicare look ever more precarious, unemployment is high and holding, home equity is down, and wages are stagnant in the face of higher prices for everything especially gas and utilities.
If we are smart and active we should be able to make the case to everyone who works for anyone other than the government that the 'Rats are pulling the rug out from under the dreams of all working Americans.
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