” - - - The six-week survey of registered voters shows Barack Obama stuck in a tie at 46/46 with Romney, - - - “
That’s it?
After a long Primary Campaign, Romney is only a coin-flip away from losing to disastrous Obama?
Thanks for the warning Romney, now sit down in your preppy little corner while you wait to be DUMPED in Tampa.
“After a long Primary Campaign, Romney is only a coin-flip away from losing to disastrous Obama?”
You may be right. Romney should be ahead at this point.
“” - - - The six-week survey of registered voters shows Barack Obama stuck in a tie at 46/46 with Romney, - - - “
That’s it?
After a long Primary Campaign, Romney is only a coin-flip away from losing to disastrous Obama?”
As I started reading the replies in this thread, got the usual “the only poll that counts is the one in November”, and “Registered voters and Zero is below 50%” — pretty much the usual stuff, UNTIL I reached yours.
You understand, my FRiend, what many others here do not.
The fact remains that Obama continually polls from a “starting base” of about 43%, regardless. Often, it’s higher — not quite breaking 50%, but certainly not far away from there and as certainly within reach.
To me, this goes beyond a simple measurement of the popularity of one man. Rather, it is indicative of the deep divisions that are afoot in the nation. It doesn’t matter whether the actual performance of the “candidate of the left” has been good, bad, or abysmal. All that matters is that he be ON “the left”, and be seen as the leader of “the [great] entitlement society”.
There is no way for Republicans or conservatives to ever “reach” this “entitlement cohort” by the force of logic or reason.
It would matter less if that 43% were spread out amongst all 50 states, but that isn’t the case. They are concentrated in high-population states such as California, New York and Illinois and along with the other “blue” states, give Obama more of an “electoral vote base” than the Republicans have. There are the “reliable red” states, but combined they don’t have the electoral vote horsepower that the blue states wield.
This leaves “the fight” to about a dozen battleground states that can go either way.
The Republicans rely on these more than do the democrats — the ‘rats need only pick up a handful, where the Republicans will need nearly all of them to win this time.
I see the following states as “takeable” by the Republicans:
Ohio (Romney can’t win wthout it)
Florida (ditto)
North Carolina (diito — isn’t it amazing that -NC- has now become that contested a state?)
Virginia (a VERY hard fight this time, and destined to be so in every election hence)
Indiana (Indiana/Illinois are like Vermont/New Hampshire in the northeast — yin vs. yang)
New Hampshire (some here will laugh, but I see this as a “must win” state for Romney to get to 270 electoral votes this time)
Lost to the Pubbies:
New Mexico (see above)
Colorado (barring some change that darkens Obama’s chances there)
Pennsylvania (will be close for Romney, but not quite enough)
The biggest toss-up this time: Wisconsin (can Scott Walker pull this off?)
Long primary campaigns are disastrous for the parties that wage them, for the same reason that Roman civil wars left the empire exposed to foreign invasion - the swords were pointed inward instead of outward. Romney has spent the past year getting napalmed by both his GOP opponents and the Democrats and their media allies. That Romney's level with Obama even as Obama has spent $100m attacking him with ads and carefully orchestrated events through people like Fluke and the fictive "Julia" even while Romney had no money to fight back is pretty impressive.