Posted on 05/28/2012 10:23:59 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Gallup uses a timely hook for its report today, noting that Mitt Romney has an enormous lead over the current Commander in Chief among veterans, but that’s not the most interesting takeaway from the poll. The six-week survey of registered voters shows Barack Obama stuck in a tie at 46/46 with Romney, even before likely-voter models get applied. That outcome encompasses the initial period of flux in the Republican primary as Rick Santorum withdrew and while Newt Gingrich delayed his withdrawal, and while the GOP was just beginning to unite behind its frontrunner. Let’s also not forget the I-got-Osama campaign from Team O that hit right in the middle of this period, too.
With all of that going on, an incumbent President should have been miles ahead of his competition. Instead, Obama finds himself stuck in the mid-40s as his attacks on Bain Capital continue to backfire, and as his fundraising hits the doldrums. That’s a bad sign for Obama.
Gallup dissects the veteran vote, which appears in part to be driving the gender gap, a key point that also brings bad news to Obama:
U.S. veterans, about 13% of the adult population and consisting mostly of older men, support Mitt Romney over Barack Obama for president by 58% to 34%, while nonveterans give Obama a four-percentage-point edge.
These data, from an analysis of Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted April 11-May 24, show that 24% of all adult men are veterans, compared with 2% of adult women.
Obama and Romney are tied overall at 46% apiece among all registered voters in this sample. Men give Romney an eight-point edge, while women opt for Obama over Romney by seven points. It turns out that the male skew for Romney is driven almost entirely by veterans. Romney leads by one point among nonveteran men, contrasted with the 28-point edge Romney receives among male veterans.
That’s a 60/32 split for Romney among male vets, while female vets give Obama a five-point edge — but only at 47/42. Men with no military service give Obama a slight edge at 48/44, but again below the 50% threshold that an incumbent at this stage should get. Romney leads men overall at 50/42, while women overall favor Obama at 49/42, a smaller gender gap for Republicans almost by half over 2008′s 56/43 for Obama. And keep in mind that this is among registered voters, not likely voters, during a period in which Obama and the Democrats went into overdrive to push the notion that Republicans are waging a “war on women.”
With the election a little over five months away, much can and will change before voters actually go to the polls. An incumbent with these kind of numbers at this stage, though, should be very worried about his political future.
Who cares - the only poll that really counts is the exit polling in November - all others are just guesses. Further, this far out - people DO change their minds...often.
Registered voters and Zero is below 50%. Not good for him.
This far out polling is as much about creating preferences as it is about measuring them.
How the hell anyone could seriously vote for the Kenyan communist is mind boggling.
I “get” (but don’t agree with) people not wanting to vote for Mitt. I understand that.
I just DON’T get anyone being enthusiastic ABOUT voting for Obamugabe.
Maybe...just maybe the folks in my area are finally getting it.
” - - - The six-week survey of registered voters shows Barack Obama stuck in a tie at 46/46 with Romney, - - - “
That’s it?
After a long Primary Campaign, Romney is only a coin-flip away from losing to disastrous Obama?
Thanks for the warning Romney, now sit down in your preppy little corner while you wait to be DUMPED in Tampa.
“After a long Primary Campaign, Romney is only a coin-flip away from losing to disastrous Obama?”
You may be right. Romney should be ahead at this point.
On the other hand, they’ve been supporting the UMWA for decades.
I don’t want to vote for Mittens. If he’s the nominee, I probably will. Obama is too dangerous to our country.
RE: Here in Southwest PA I see yard signs going up that read:”Stop The War on Coal! Fire Obama!”
Maybe...just maybe the folks in my area are finally getting it.
_______________________
Just as in California, there’s San Francisco, Los Angeles and Sacramento vs the rest....
In Pennsylvania, there is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh... and then there’s the rest.
True. I wonder who Gallop is actually contacting. I've been getting regular phone calls from polling organizations. I don't answer if Caller-ID shows an organization I recognize. If a polling call accidentally gets through my response is "Sorry, don't have time to talk".
I just visited a friend on east coast of Florida, and his sign stated, “If Obama Wins this house is for SALE”. I guess we are getting bolder in voicing our opinions!
I just visited a friend on east coast of Florida, and his sign stated, “If Obama Wins this house is for SALE”. I guess we are getting bolder in voicing our opinions!
Too bad; Romney does not have the courage to actually ‘take Obama on’. If he did; think he would have left, by now, Obama; not just close behind; but rather, in the dust. . .where he belongs.
“” - - - The six-week survey of registered voters shows Barack Obama stuck in a tie at 46/46 with Romney, - - - “
That’s it?
After a long Primary Campaign, Romney is only a coin-flip away from losing to disastrous Obama?”
As I started reading the replies in this thread, got the usual “the only poll that counts is the one in November”, and “Registered voters and Zero is below 50%” — pretty much the usual stuff, UNTIL I reached yours.
You understand, my FRiend, what many others here do not.
The fact remains that Obama continually polls from a “starting base” of about 43%, regardless. Often, it’s higher — not quite breaking 50%, but certainly not far away from there and as certainly within reach.
To me, this goes beyond a simple measurement of the popularity of one man. Rather, it is indicative of the deep divisions that are afoot in the nation. It doesn’t matter whether the actual performance of the “candidate of the left” has been good, bad, or abysmal. All that matters is that he be ON “the left”, and be seen as the leader of “the [great] entitlement society”.
There is no way for Republicans or conservatives to ever “reach” this “entitlement cohort” by the force of logic or reason.
It would matter less if that 43% were spread out amongst all 50 states, but that isn’t the case. They are concentrated in high-population states such as California, New York and Illinois and along with the other “blue” states, give Obama more of an “electoral vote base” than the Republicans have. There are the “reliable red” states, but combined they don’t have the electoral vote horsepower that the blue states wield.
This leaves “the fight” to about a dozen battleground states that can go either way.
The Republicans rely on these more than do the democrats — the ‘rats need only pick up a handful, where the Republicans will need nearly all of them to win this time.
I see the following states as “takeable” by the Republicans:
Ohio (Romney can’t win wthout it)
Florida (ditto)
North Carolina (diito — isn’t it amazing that -NC- has now become that contested a state?)
Virginia (a VERY hard fight this time, and destined to be so in every election hence)
Indiana (Indiana/Illinois are like Vermont/New Hampshire in the northeast — yin vs. yang)
New Hampshire (some here will laugh, but I see this as a “must win” state for Romney to get to 270 electoral votes this time)
Lost to the Pubbies:
New Mexico (see above)
Colorado (barring some change that darkens Obama’s chances there)
Pennsylvania (will be close for Romney, but not quite enough)
The biggest toss-up this time: Wisconsin (can Scott Walker pull this off?)
What is the purpose of a 6-week poll? Isn’t the idea to get a snapshot of public opinion at a particular point in time? Opinions gathered on day 1 of the survey could be obsolete at the end of 6 weeks.
Rassmussen measures likely voters and of those, Obama`s “Approve” numbers haven`t dropped below 49% in a week. This, after the Bain Capital and homo “marriage” flaps, and the evidence of a slowing economy. That`s a level of satisfaction that isn`t going to translate into a win for Romney if it holds up.
If your friend wanted to affect others` voting as well, perhaps his sign should read: “If Obama wins, I`m renting this house out Section 8!”
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