Skip to comments.JPM Cuts Q3 GDP Forecast From 3% To 2% (33% CUT!)
Posted on 06/01/2012 11:20:37 AM PDT by tcrlaf
So it starts.
"Taking down the US growth projection has almost become a summertime ritual, and in keeping with tradition we are shaving our 2012 GDP outlook (Q4/Q4) from 2.3% to 2.1%.
Over the first five months of the year the labor market has steadily lost momentum and we are now confronted with a global growth slowdown which will provide a further headwind to the economy. As such, we are taking Q3 growth from 3.0% to 2.0%, with much of the downward revision accounted for by an expectation that the pace of export growth will slow.
We are leaving our Q4 forecast unchanged at 2.0%, though there are downside risks to that quarter as the fiscal uncertainties could weigh on the economy. One thing we are not changing is our Q2 growth projection, which we still see as coming in around 2.5% with only modest downside risks.
The exercise of adding up current quarter indicators has received support from today's April real consumption number, which gives a firm start to consumer spending for the quarter. Below is our revised forecast table."
But when you see that as a 33% contraction, it leaps out and bites you right on the nose.
Especially when the numbers and fluffed and fudged anyway.
That will be the last GDP figures released before Nov election. OUCH!
Q1 estimates started at 2.9% then become .... 1.9% now.
“One thing we are not changing is our Q2 growth projection, which we still see as coming in around 2.5% with only modest downside risks. “
Except we are in Q2 now, its odd the may reports arent changing that. you’d think the opposite - change Q2 more than Q3. There is little reason for Q2 to be stronger than Q1, so since Q1 was 1.9% why wouldnt Q2 be the same?
So that puts you at 2% 2% 2% for rest of year.
So a drop from 1% to 0 would be three times as bad?