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What's your assessment of the likelihood?
1 posted on 06/10/2012 5:20:35 AM PDT by pavlova
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To: pavlova

On the one hand he hates Israel and would do anything possible to damage them.

On the other hand, he’s cynical enough to try to buy the Jewish vote by doing it.


2 posted on 06/10/2012 5:25:24 AM PDT by IncPen (Educating Barack Obama has been the most expensive project in human history)
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To: pavlova

Sorry, but my #3 response should have been addressed to “pavlova” as well.


4 posted on 06/10/2012 5:34:57 AM PDT by HotHunt
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To: pavlova

If Pollard is released, you’ll see victory jubilation just like the Lockerbie Bomber release.

It will be just as appropriate, if it were to happens from a certain anti-American point of view.

Obama would like to release him not because he cares about Israel, but because he hates America. I’m presuming cooler heads will prevail and Pollard will stay put.

This guy is right where he needs to be, since he’s not 6-feet under where he deserves to be.


8 posted on 06/10/2012 5:47:51 AM PDT by RFEngineer
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To: pavlova
He'll free the cop killer Mumia Abu-Jamal ........ wait and see! Pollard small potatoes in comparison.
12 posted on 06/10/2012 6:14:35 AM PDT by Old Badger (Don't bother me! I still like Palin because she will tell like it is! (Newt too!))
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To: pavlova
Even the Slickster and his minions were smart enough not to touch that one and they were shameless opportunists.

I think Obummer will.

14 posted on 06/10/2012 6:26:54 AM PDT by Hillarys Gate Cult (Liberals make unrealistic demands on reality and reality doesn't oblige them.)
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To: pavlova

Inside info from an old retired spook (not me personally):

The docs that Pollard stole ended up in the USSR. Apparently, the Mossad made a little dough by re-selling them.

He also had other sayonim stealing docs for him at NSA and he would not give them up. So NSA just fired all the Jews on the payroll.

The truth ain’t pretty.

BTW, we have had agents from other ALLIES spying on us including Taiwan, France, and even the UK. Yup, they all try to steal technology and influence our government.

I just wish our dumbass ally could get their heads out of the Middle East mindset sometime.


16 posted on 06/10/2012 6:43:44 AM PDT by darth
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To: pavlova
He will do it because every single Orthodox Jew in America will vote for him if he does. It seems to be one of their top priorities and it's as if it has taken over their brains, even the portion reserved for self preservation.

I say this only because I have witnessed their passion for the release of Jonathan Pollard. See below for only one example:

Orthodox Union President Writes Obama, Biden on Pollard
(Tuesday, April 17th, 2012)

Yesterday, Dr. Simcha Katz, president of the Orthodox Union – the largest Orthodox Jewish umbrella organization in the United States, transmitted a letter to President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden urging clemency for Jonathan Pollard.

SOURCE: The Yeshiva World News

Read a couple of comments following an article at that website that explain why they believe what they do:

5. Jewish Common Sense says: May 21, 2012 at 7:21 pm

#3 It is important to remember that although our hearts go out to our brother who is rotting in jail for something which he probably had the best intentions for, too much rallying on this issue can be only counterproductive. Let us not forget that the American Government sees it as a threat that Jews may have a dual loyalty or even a stronger loyalty to Israel then they do too the U.S.A. There are many Jews who hold top positions in this country and this is a very serious concern for them.

Let us also remember that although he may have had the best of intentions this is wrong according to Halacha as we are obligated first and foremost to the country in which we reside. Spying for another country is treason, and let us be more clear on this matter. Only this way we can make sure that such things will not reaccur and that the concerns of our (very benevolent!!!) government will subside.

6. Milhouse says: May 22, 2012 at 10:58 am

this is wrong according to Halacha as we are obligated first and foremost to the country in which we reside.

Really? Where is this written? Our first duty is to our own nation, which is Am Yisroel, not the USA (nor for that matter Israel). Any other duty must come second. Whether you like it or not, that is how it is, and one who puts the interests of the country where he lives above those of his own nation is truly a traitor.

They will do what their rebbes tell them to do, which is to vote for the presidential candidate who will free Jonathan Pollard.
17 posted on 06/10/2012 6:45:28 AM PDT by arasina (So there.)
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To: pavlova

Assume that he’ll do whatever is the most politically expedient. That makes it a close call.

On the one hand, a pardon would help solidify some of his Jewish support. How many votes is that though, exactly? I think I saw a poll here yesterday that said that almost 70% of Jewish voters still support him (AMAZING!). So, it might helps a segment of 30% of the Jewish vote return to the fold. If it helps half (and I think that’s generous), then the pardon is worth about 15% of that vote.

The tradeoff is who will become mad enough NOT to vote for him as a result. Here, you have to look at independents and that is a bigger subset of the population. If 5% of independents don’t vote for him because they are mad about this vote, that would likely be a net negative for the pardon.

There are two things they must look at before they make their decision: 1. Net plus/minus on who will become more likely to vote for/against based on the decision, and 2. Intensity of support as a result.

Intensity is a two-fold test in itself. Assume that a Jewish person not NOW supporting Obama that would support him over this pardon would do so because they are intensely interested in the outcome. Add to that those that were going to support him who are now MORE intense about it because of the pardon (donations?).

Intensity cuts both ways, to an limited extent. It’s not like Obama is going to lose my vote over this issue. Would it make me more intense about him getting defeated in Nov? Is that possible? (On a personal intensity scale, this pardon by a Republican President WOULD be enough - by itself - to lose any future support by me. Disclaimer: I’ve worked as a military cryptologist at No Such Agency in the past.)

The pardon would be a big deal in the Jewish community in re the outcome of the 2012 election.

It would also be intensely covered by the media. It would be a big deal to a subset of independents who come to believe that Obama pandered using national security to win. That would be a turnoff.

Is a net negative for a pardon greater than the positives? I think this has been the case in the past, and that is why Clinton didn’t pardon him. Obama has more ground to makeup in the Jewish community. That just might change the dynamic.

I just spouted a bunch of smoke to end up where I started: it’s a close call.


20 posted on 06/10/2012 8:10:14 AM PDT by ziravan (Are you better off now than you were $9.4 Trillion dollars ago?)
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To: pavlova

His poll numbers with the Jewish community is in the toilet...large Jewish donors have stopped donating to his campaign all in reaction to his tough stance on the never ending Jewish Pali question, which has been completely one sided....jews must make all the compromise

Releasing Pollard is simply a move to open up the Jewish coffers...


22 posted on 06/10/2012 8:20:13 AM PDT by Popman (When you elect a clown: expect a circus...)
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To: pavlova

I do not doubt it. Remember when Clinton pardoned the FALN bombers to get even more of the Hispanic vote?


26 posted on 06/10/2012 1:26:02 PM PDT by Pharmboy (Democrats lie because they must.)
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To: ASA Vet

Ping...


27 posted on 06/10/2012 2:52:04 PM PDT by HiJinx (He who controls the water, controls life.)
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To: pavlova; ASA Vet; BIGLOOK; Liz

Several of Obozo’s favorite left wind non profits will get some big donations from Mossad Front organizations.

The faux left wing non profits will take their usual money laundering fee of 10-20% and “donate” the rest to various liberal PAC money machines to help Obozo during this election.

He and the rats in charge are desperate for money after Romney raised more money in May than they did.

Obozo has used the rich gays and Follywood crowd like his personal reelection ATM’s recently.


36 posted on 06/10/2012 7:26:51 PM PDT by Grampa Dave (ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION IS DESTROYING AMERICA-LOOK AT WHAT IT DID TO THE WHITE HOUSE!)
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To: pavlova

Obama has a dismal record on Israeli accountability???

Please explain what they are accountable for and how you think Obama should hold them to account.


38 posted on 06/10/2012 8:55:49 PM PDT by allmendream (Tea Party did not send GOP to D.C. to negotiate the terms of our surrender to socialism)
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