Posted on 06/10/2012 4:20:05 PM PDT by rightcoast
With 5 months to, trends spell trouble for Obama’s re-election hopes
June 10, 2012
Like many FReepers, I have been closely watching state polling data for voter trends, good or bad. Coverage of the Wisconsin recall election has been interesting, in that it has been painted as a bad sign for President Obama (the state is now considered a toss-up), although softened by Obama’s purported 5-point advantage in recent polls.
The real story in Wisconsin as it relates to the President is not that he still holds a lead; it is that this lead has plummeted dramatically versus his 2008 election. Obama enjoyed a nearly 14-point lead over John McCain, but the current RCP polling average shows a lead just under 5 points – a 9-point drop!
If you compare the 2008 election results to current RCP polling averages, you will find similar trends in the Midwest and throughout the country. The following list highlights changes in Obama’s 2008 election results versus the latest 2012 RCP poll averages:
Now, a caveat here: not all of the polls above are for likely voters, so RCP’s averages include some data limited to registered voter polling. This could skew the data towards or away from Obama. Also, many of these polls contain large amounts of “undecided” voters. For example, the Ohio average shows a 1.8-point lead for Obama: Obama 46.4, Romney 44.6. This represents a significant percentage of voters that have yet to commit to a candidate, and indicates a weaker position for the President. Many of his polling “leads” are softened by a representative polling percentage significantly under 50%, always a weak point for an incumbent.
My main point here is that the trend has definitely moved against re-election. This is not to say that Obama won’t be re-elected, but with a tightened race, he certainly has a lot more ground to defend.
Be very, very cautious as to such a turn of events, I think about recent ‘should have been’ situations and especially way back with Nixon losing Illinois/Chicago to Kennedy. Nixon understood the politics at that time. The unions and the international new world order cabal are not going to let the USA be the USA if they can do anything about it. Even so I do see a ray of hope for a change back.
Have you seen the latest acronym? OMG? Obama Must Go!
Anyone here gotten the “Rosebud” email??? Just wondering... (has to do with election)
That was new to me.
This administration is not beyond doing anything to reign victorious in this election. There are already rumors beginning to surface in certain circles of a major planned "Unplanned Event" close to election time to bring the nation "together" and to showcase our dynamic Leader in Chief as he takes charge of the situation.......
..... in such a case as this ..... I hope the GOP has a plan "B"
.... Anything is possible.
Any “Unplanned Event” by this crowd would go horribly wrong, based on their track record. Let’s just hope such event justifiably costs them the election and doesn’t lead to a bungled catastrophe, loss of life, etc.
I can not take four more years of an economy like this nor can any of my friends. Any number of us are on the verge of pushing a grocery cart down the street and sleeping in the park.
This insanity has to end.
I can not take four more years of an economy like this nor can any of my friends. Any number of us are on the verge of pushing a grocery cart down the street and sleeping in the park.
This insanity has to end.
Anybody who fears Black Panther-style intimidation at the polls needs to either cast an absentee ballot or call 9-1-1 to report the incident and describe the paramilitary perp, then walk into the polling place as the cops are speaking to the thug.
It's not over until it's over, and we have to work every day from now until after election day to defeat Obama - work like our lives depend on it (they do!).
"The time is now near at hand which must probably determine, whether Americans are to be, Freemen, or Slaves; whether they are to have any property they can call their own; whether their Houses, and Farms, are to be pillaged and destroyed, and they consigned to a State of Wretchedness from which no human efforts will probably deliver them.
The fate of unborn Millions will now depend, under God, on the Courage and Conduct of this army — Our cruel and unrelenting Enemy leaves us no choice but a brave resistance, or the most abject submission; this is all we can expect — We have therefore to resolve to conquer or die: Our own Country’s Honor, all call upon us for a vigorous and manly exertion, and if we now shamefully fail, we shall become infamous to the whole world.
Let us therefore rely upon the goodness of the Cause, and the aid of the supreme Being, in whose hands Victory is, to animate and encourage us to great and noble Actions — The Eyes of all our Countrymen are now upon us, and we shall have their blessings, and praises, if happily we are the instruments of saving them from the tyranny meditated against them. Let us therefore animate and encourage each other, and show the whole world, that a Freeman contending for LIBERTY on his own ground is superior to any slavish mercenary on earth." - George Washington, Address to the Continental Army before the Battle of Long Island (27 August 1776).
A good point on having to defend it with, both with record and money. Obama so far is behind in fundraising. He outspent McCain 3 to 1.
I agree that over-confidence is a fool’s errand at this point. I’m just looking at current trends, which can and will be in motion over the next 5 months.
I am hopeful that the “dead voter advantage” for the Democrats will be mitigated by improved voter identification laws in Florida and other states.
President Obama MAY lose but it will be a close race as millions of voters abhore a white, wealthy Morman. Folks know now, in the hearts that Obama is an utter failure but that may still not be enough to push people into the GOP -even as a last resort...
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