FR Exclusive: Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections

Rasmussen Reports ^ | July 4, 2012 | Political Junkie Too

[BigEdLB]

I have my own system that accounts for Polling Bias, MSM Polls, Undecideds (3/4 to challenger), etc. Any poll can be corrected for using a consistent set of standards. Also you weight the poll by age...



Polling bias, Standard Procedure, to promote THE ONE, and convince us chances to rid ourselves are poor. It isn't. I am not as rosey as Dick Morris, but I am cautiously hopeful

[Political Junkie Too]

I agree that it's early. Since 2004, I've been putting out this analysis at best on a weekly basis, in order to show the movement in polls over time.

I'm starting now so we can see how the race progresses over the months. We also need to know where the areas of opportunity are.

I do look at poll bias, by doing what-if analysis that shifts the poll results by various factors, and seeing the effects on the Electoral College vote. I did that in my last report, but not on this one.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

I, too, have a system for accounting for poll bias. I don't always use it, but I look at it.

Please feel free to post your own analysis alongside mine for comparison.

-PJ

[BigEdLB]

I will be happy to post this periodically when the discussion turns to polling...

[1010RD]

You do a great job and thanks. You also truly do deserve sidebar mention.

What might be valuable, if it is even feasible, would be to look at campaign emphasis, news highlights, and major events shaping the public opinion. It would help give insights into why polls are moving.

I recall watching McCain fumble, but having the media really highlight it toward the end of the campaign. They savaged Sarah right from the start. Biden and Obama got a pass.

[Pasadena2k]

Thanks!

[Alas Babylon!]

Hey, put me BACK ON your Ping list. I’ve only been following you since you started doing this many elections ago!

[skinkinthegrass]

:-)

[Yardstick]

*Bump for Later*

[fieldmarshaldj]

Yup.

[nathanbedford]

Please add me to your ping list.

I agree, you should be given sidebar recognition.

[LibsRJerks]

This is awesome — thanks for the summary. Really motivates me to work harder in Virginia for the Senate race.

Whatever we can do locally is as or might be MORE important than this presidential.

Would be funny to see Obama hamstrung by a totally Republican Congress. He’s just go golfing for 4 years, which would leave the grownups to run the country. He’d of course, take credit ...but where have we seen that before?

[Leep]

Obama turned it around in the last week.

---

Was that around the time McGramps was frantically running around calling for an emergency meeting and generally appearing as if he had the onset of dementia?

The whole thing was just to weird. Even before McGramps had his spell the media kept making the race about the Republican VP nom and the guy who was running for Prezbo, who coincidentally had no record of occomplishments but had a nice smille and a “funny sounding name.”
Sounds like Baraq Ozombie.

[InterceptPoint]

Nice start.

[InterceptPoint]

And a nice start on the Senate by randita as well.

[Political Junkie Too]

Thanks. I have big shoes to fill.

-PJ

[MEG33]

The race will be won by Romney or Obama..There it is.

[MEG33]

I know it’s too early..but I enjoy looking at past results and comparing them..Thank you!

[OneWingedShark]

If he is not totally assured he will win, Obama will do something huge at the D convention; probably dump Biden.

In favor of Romney!
Romney will be glad to take the nomination and reciprocate by offering Obama VP on his ticket.
and thus were the Republican and Democrat parties are forever joined.

[/sarc][/cynic]

[OneWingedShark]

Who is a good alternative to Obama that we can support?

Gary Johnson, former NM gov.