[MindBender26]

With respect, this is way too early.

A few factors that need to be factored in:

The good:

Republicans are usually -1.5 to 2.5% in the generic congressional poll. Rs are now +7%, a huge but quiet shift.

Ds always poll 2-3% better than the election results. This year, people are afraid to tell a pollster that they will not vote for the Orama because they afraid to be seen as racist, but when the curtain is closed, will do so in huge numbers..

Most importantly, the people who will decide the election, not us or the DU crowd, but the middle 18%, aren't interested in the election yet.

Finally, the bad:

If he is not totally assured he will win, Obama will do something huge at the D convention; probably dump Biden.

We shall see.

[Political Junkie Too]

I agree that it's early. Since 2004, I've been putting out this analysis at best on a weekly basis, in order to show the movement in polls over time.

I'm starting now so we can see how the race progresses over the months. We also need to know where the areas of opportunity are.

I do look at poll bias, by doing what-if analysis that shifts the poll results by various factors, and seeing the effects on the Electoral College vote. I did that in my last report, but not on this one.

-PJ

[OneWingedShark]

If he is not totally assured he will win, Obama will do something huge at the D convention; probably dump Biden.

In favor of Romney!
Romney will be glad to take the nomination and reciprocate by offering Obama VP on his ticket.
and thus were the Republican and Democrat parties are forever joined.

[/sarc][/cynic]