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The chart that shows just how much reelection trouble Obama is in
AEIdeas ^ | 7-18-2012 | James Pethokoukis

Posted on 07/18/2012 10:17:00 AM PDT by smoothsailing

July 18, 2012

The chart that shows just how much reelection trouble Obama is in

James Pethokoukis

071812Obama

A daisy chain of political disaster seems to be forming for President Obama, says political analyst Dan Clifton at Strategas Research. Clifton suggests that “there seems to be a relationship between consumer confidence and whether a president gets reelected. The current levels of confidence are consistent with Carter and George H. W. Bush when they lost reelection.”

That conclusion is displayed in the above chart.

And Clifton’s reasoning is based on the following three charts: .....

(Excerpt) Read more at aei-ideas.org ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; elections; nobama2012; obama

1 posted on 07/18/2012 10:17:06 AM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing

Wow, this is epic if the fundamentals behind it are solid.


2 posted on 07/18/2012 10:21:49 AM PDT by apillar
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To: smoothsailing
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
3 posted on 07/18/2012 10:23:41 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: smoothsailing

I can see the logic behind his graph.

My only concern is that the Dems have used the Baraqqi Depression to greatly increase the number of people dependent on government (99ers, food stamps, etc). Potentially turning a liability into an asset - at least election-wise.

So in November we will see if America has reached the “tipping point”.

If Baraq wins, patriots are going to have to re-evaluate our whole view of what it means to be an American.


4 posted on 07/18/2012 10:27:39 AM PDT by nascarnation
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To: smoothsailing
(Hint) This is not the same year as in 1980 or 1988 ...... Demographic changed quite a bit since then.

We are in an uncharted era.

Still take heart, there might be hope of dumping this guy.

5 posted on 07/18/2012 10:27:57 AM PDT by Sir Napsalot (Pravda + Useful Idiots = CCCP; JournOList + Useful Idiots = DopeyChangey!)
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To: smoothsailing; All

Remember ‘08?

Remember the MSM is still lying and covering up for him.

We’ll see the same illegal overseas and other contributions

We’ll see voter fraud ten times worse

We’ll see the race card pulled as never before (Romney is a sitting duck with his religion’s history of discrimination against blacks)

Don’t think the rats will give up their Communist coup without a struggle.

This will be the dirtiest fight in election history

We’ll be lucky if we EVER get rid of the Marxist/Muslim sob.


6 posted on 07/18/2012 10:30:18 AM PDT by patriot08 (TEXAS GAL- born and bred and proud of it!)
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Comment #7 Removed by Moderator

To: smoothsailing

Johnson was reelected?


8 posted on 07/18/2012 10:31:22 AM PDT by Archytekt
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To: Archytekt
Johnson was reelected?

No,but he ran for office as a sitting President,Same thing,IMO,for the sake of this comparison.

9 posted on 07/18/2012 10:34:50 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Poor Barak.If He's Reelected,Think Of The Mess He'll Inherit!)
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To: Sir Napsalot

Agreed. The role of identity politics in elections has grown enormously, at the expense of things like economic conditions. If identity politics were set aside Mittens would win in a cakewalk. Unfortunately, it can’t be set aside so we’re looking at a nasty, close election.


10 posted on 07/18/2012 10:36:18 AM PDT by tanknetter
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To: smoothsailing

So far, Mitt Romney is doing all that Mitt can do to give BO one more chance!


11 posted on 07/18/2012 10:36:56 AM PDT by johnthebaptistmoore (The world continues to be stuck in a "all leftist, all of the time" funk. BUNK THE FUNK!)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Very interesting.


12 posted on 07/18/2012 10:39:00 AM PDT by samtheman (The Trillion Dollar ObamaCareTax definitely is a tax; just ask the US Supreme Court.)
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To: Archytekt
"Johnson was re-elected?"

Johnson was the incumbent in 1964. A fine point I guess.

13 posted on 07/18/2012 10:39:03 AM PDT by Neanderthal
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To: F15Eagle

Excellent graphic.


14 posted on 07/18/2012 10:40:03 AM PDT by samtheman (The Trillion Dollar ObamaCareTax definitely is a tax; just ask the US Supreme Court.)
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Comment #15 Removed by Moderator

To: F15Eagle

16 posted on 07/18/2012 10:43:36 AM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: F15Eagle

LOL! Good picture!


17 posted on 07/18/2012 10:50:00 AM PDT by tsowellfan (http://www.cafenetamerica.com/)
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To: smoothsailing

Unfortunately, this assumes an honest election.


18 posted on 07/18/2012 10:51:03 AM PDT by null and void (Day 1274 of our ObamaVacation from reality - Heroes aren't made Frank, they're cornered...)
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To: smoothsailing
Las Vegas "odds maker" opines on why Obama will get "killed" by Romney in November.

Wayne Allyn Root
May 30, 2012

Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.

But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then-- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt -- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.

Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. Thirty two years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?

First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient -- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now-- and that is a bad harbinger.

Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:

*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.

*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida ). This is not good news for Obama.

*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60%s. This is not good news for Obama.

*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke -- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.

*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.

*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he'd support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.

*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.

*Suburban moms. The issue isn't contraception…it's having a job to pay for contraception. Obama's economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.

*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.

Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying, "I didn't vote for Obama 4 years ago, but he's done such a fantastic job, I can't wait to vote for him today." Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?

Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas odds maker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again.

But I'll give Obama credit for one thing -- he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.

19 posted on 07/18/2012 10:53:18 AM PDT by mc5cents
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To: F15Eagle

Consider that image.....stolen! It’s now my screen :)


20 posted on 07/18/2012 11:02:26 AM PDT by liberalh8ter (If Barack has a memory like a steel trap, why can't he remember what the Constitution says?)
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To: johnthebaptistmoore

That’s the way I see it. Just like McCain. Palin almost screwed that up for him.


21 posted on 07/18/2012 11:09:36 AM PDT by Josephat (`)
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Comment #22 Removed by Moderator

To: mc5cents

Good read. I do not agree that the Black support for the Disaster will drop because of his Gay-loving agenda. Nothing will change that.

Nor will there be much decline in the Jewish vote, they love socialism too much.

Nor can you count on the drop in the Catholic vote he predicts. That vote has been tied closely to the big city RAT machines since day one.


23 posted on 07/18/2012 11:55:39 AM PDT by arrogantsob (Obama must Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: apillar

I am predicting a tsunami wipeout for the dems in November.


24 posted on 07/18/2012 11:59:49 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
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To: smoothsailing; a fool in paradise

I perdict lots of perdictions!


25 posted on 07/18/2012 12:02:52 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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To: mc5cents

“It’s Reagan-Carter all over again”

Except this time Reagan didn’t run and Bush got the nomination. Do people want Carter in full-malaise mode or Carter Lite?


26 posted on 07/18/2012 12:32:41 PM PDT by Gil4 (Sometimes it's not low self-esteem - it's just accurate self-assessment.)
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To: smoothsailing

27 posted on 07/18/2012 3:17:51 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NC, FL, VA, OH, NV o/r IA = 271EV)
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To: mc5cents

Las Vegas “odds maker” opines on why Obama will get “killed” by Romney in November.

Bookmark


28 posted on 07/18/2012 3:26:39 PM PDT by 1035rep
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To: StAnDeliver

“Incumbent Rule: Over 80% of the time, most or all of the undecideds voted for the challenger.”

I read that they only broke for the challenger once and that was President Bush in 2004. Is that correct?


29 posted on 07/18/2012 3:30:24 PM PDT by 1035rep
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To: nascarnation

“So in November we will see if America has reached the ‘tipping point’”

The very fact our candidate is Mitt Romney is evidence that we haven’t reached the tipping point!


30 posted on 07/20/2012 12:28:14 PM PDT by libdestroyer
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