U.S., India Inch Toward Naval Partnership

The World Politics Review ^ | 09/07/2012 | The World Politics Review

[khelus]

The blue line represents unemployment including those working part time who need full time work and those who have been dropped from the civilian labor force and want work.



The blue line represents an inflation rate that measures the cost of a set standard of living, not a declining standard of living.



The blue line represents the GDP adjusted by an inflation rate that measures the cost of a set standard of living, not a declining standard of living.

Just image if government spending were removed!

[Toddsterpatriot]

That phony inflation “calculation” never gets old.

[denydenydeny]

India today provides maritime oversight to the Seychelles, the Maldives and Mauritius.

Won't that upset Argentina?

[Graewoulf]

If the peaks of the graph entitled “Unemployment Rate - - -” are extrapolated and compared to the rates of change from the previous valleys, the probability of an asymptotic rise in the unemployment rate should not be unexpected on a six to seven year cycle.

IOW, on the blue line, Sept, 2000 = 2 % jump in Un. Rate; Sept. 2006 = 8 % jump in Un. Rate.

If the blue line peaks at 3/2003 and 5/2011 are equivalent, then 3 years from now there should be a valley and then a jump in the unemployment rate much greater than the jump in 2008-9 caused by the FHA Bankruptcy.

The jump comes a little sooner on the gray or red lines.

BTW, isn’t the Federal Government still stupidly insuring home loans with taxpayer dollars? Have they learned NOTHING from the 2008 Bursting of The Fannie Bubble?

BTW, BTW, what does “SGS” Alternate stand for in real words?

[the invisib1e hand]

America is DYING now, because we have exported all our manufacturing

symptom, not cause.

[khelus]

BTW, isn’t the Federal Government still stupidly insuring home loans with taxpayer dollars? Have they learned NOTHING from the 2008 Bursting of The Fannie Bubble?

That is my understanding. The concept of moral hazard seems to mean nothing to those in charge.
{In economic theory, a moral hazard is a situation where a party will have a tendency to take risks because the costs that could incur will not be felt by the party taking the risk.}

SGS = Shadow Government Statistics. The owner of the website is a private consulting economist who, out of necessity, had to become a specialist in government economic reporting. I became interested in the site when I realized their stats more accurately reflected both my experience and that of friends who also run small business.

Although there is a newsletter for a fee, there is lots of free information on the site.

Primer Series Intro
Unemployment
Inflation I
Inflation II
Inflation III
GDP
Federal Deficit

In short

• The raw data collected for calculating unemployment rate, i.e.the Household Survey is considered the best statistical info used by the government. The 'jimmying' occurs in the used of seasonal adjustments, moving people out of the civilian labor force, and not paying much attention to the numbers working part time who need full time work.
• The number of jobs created, i.e. the Payroll Survey is considered much less reliable. The combination of the use of the Birth and Death Model and seasonal adjustment seem biased toward a growing economy.
• The CPI not longer measures the cost of a set standard of living, It has has been coverted into measuring the cost of a declining standard of living by the use of tools such as the hedonics index, chained dollars, intervention analysis, adjustments for quality change, the substitution effect, geometric weighting, owner's rent equivalence, ... Better yet the effectiveness of the Fed's monetary policy is measured using core inflation which eliminates the cost of two necessities food and energy.
• Since inflation is under counted, the seasonally adjusted GDP is over counted.

I have seen articles using other methods to measure 'real' unemployment, inflation, and GDP that yield result similar to those of SGS but I have not been able to locate the links. Any questions feel free.

[rurgan]

China to build 50,000 skyscrapers by 2025. US. cities are going bankrupt and many U.S. cities are hellholes.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2907789/posts?q=1&;page=101
China has far surpassed the U.S. already : look at these videos of you doubt. look at these videos where you see these cities are rising,modern marvels that make U.S. declining cities look like crap. U.S. cities like Detroit and many other are hellholes now.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=719pa4U7sTs&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7aXJ3VcmXw

Compare this China city to detroit and other U.S. declining hell holes where they can't even keep the lights on many places.

China's 35% growth since Obama became president

China to build 50,000 skyscrapers by 2025.

These 12 hellholes cities are what the rest of America will look like soon
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2907789/posts?q=1&;page=101

And many even here say that the U.S. produces so much and is ahead of China. That's bs look at the videos:

China had all this growth at our expense .They stole U.S. technology and sold their crap to America. and used our natural resources to do it. 25 years ago 99% of people in China were peasants living as they did 1000 years ago. Now they far surpassed U.S. : look the videos if you doubt. Fact is the U.S. has unlimited natural resources like oil, oil shale, natural gas, coal, iron ore etc. China has very poor natural resources but yet they ship iron and coal from the Australia build products in china and then ship them to the U.S. and when the U.S. could build all the products we use here because we have the natural resources and wouldn't have to ship them all the way around the world. something is clearly wrong here that China is doing this and we aren't . something has to change but many here say no keep things the same. wtf? It's easy to reverse this .

1. fight fire with fire : do to china what china has done to the U.S. : currency manipulation, import restrictions , etc( hundreds of things China has done).
2. numerically limit imports of china products and other countries. tariffs also
3. reduce regulations and taxes on American companies. that means eliminate the EPA and IRS and only revenue of governments at all levels should only be tariffs and sales taxes period. Then this will allow companies to drill for our own oil etc.

[BobL]

Anyone country can show propaganda, but what I remember most regarding China were pictures from a protest on highway in the middle of nowhere.

That was ONE SWEET HIGHWAY, beautifully paved, shoulders and curbs - no staging in that picture. That pretty much told me it was game over versus them - they’ve won.

[moonshot925]

There is a huge real estate bubble in China and it is already starting to burst.

Just like what happened to the USA in 2007.

In the first quarter of 2009, Chinese banks lent the equivalent of 35% of GDP in 3 months.

The rural exodus needed the property speculation initially to ensure that the cities were being built fast enough with private investment.

The problem is once a bubble is created it has to pop and the speculators who earned millions will not take the pain but the people will.

China’s been riding an investment boom over the last three years that everyone recognised was unsustainable and it is now bursting.

[entropy12]

You are absolutely correct about China eating our lunch. Only a person who has extensive business dealings with China can fix the problem. A community organizer from Chicago ain’t gonna do it. But voters are too stupid to elect someone like Trump who DOES NOT NEED CHINESE CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS and has done extensive deals with China, and has large cajones can fix the problem.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

Well yes Trump would do just fine. :D

He’s on Mittens’ side too.

[Graewoulf]

Many thanks for all of this information! WOW!! SGS, and even “Moral Hazard” defined!

Since the Fannie Bubble burst in 2008, I have watched a lot of TV shows about economics, especially CNBC.

NONE, repeat N O N E of any of the talking heads or their expert guests have EVER defined what “ Moral hazard “ is defined as being, even though the term is mentioned multiple times a day.

Thanks for the hotlinks, I will check them out after my vay-kay.

[Vermont Lt]

You need to go back and read about how effective the tariffs were in the mid thirties.

We need to stop government spending. We need to drop corp. taxes. We need to get out of our foreign wars. We need to get our energy situation squared away. We need to stop babying our population.

Your plan would be ok, if there were still facilities and skilled labor to take up the slack. And, I hope you have a ton of extra income, because the price of everything would double in your world.

[khelus]

Enjoy your vay-kay!

[khelus]

Moonshot925, the problem with your ‘theory’ is that no work = no consumer demand.

‘Free trade’ with free movement of capital and labor unfettered by ethics or patriotism was promoted by Marx as a way to speed up global communism for a reason.

[khelus]

... We need to stop government spending. We need to drop corp. taxes. We need to get out of our foreign wars. We need to get our energy situation squared away. We need to stop babying our population. ..

agreed. we also need to stop subsidizing illegals, guest workers, and brand new immigrants.

... Your plan would be ok, if there were still facilities and skilled labor to take up the slack. ...

The facilities we can rebuild; the labor we have. Jobs American can't / won't do is a myth to justify CHEAP labor. Hospital shout shortage of nurses while firing experienced, proven nurses and replacing them with cheap guest workers. Hospitals also will no longer hire new grads because they lack experience. The same in IT, engineering, skilled blue collar work, construction, etc.

FYI even Adam Smith approved of tariffs under certain circumstances.

[Vermont Lt]

The problem with your answer is that we do not have the facilities or trained skilled workers. I don’t mean people willing to work—I mean enough people with the skills to make anything.

And the ramp up time would be years. So between implementing tariffs and getting production up will result in a scarcity problem that would tank our economy.

Also, the resultant reprisal tariffs would sink us faster.

The point about not hiring folks without experience is nothing new—that has been going on for eons.

[Vermont Lt]

The problem with your answer is that we do not have the facilities or trained skilled workers. I don’t mean people willing to work—I mean enough people with the skills to make anything.

And the ramp up time would be years. So between implementing tariffs and getting production up will result in a scarcity problem that would tank our economy.

Also, the resultant reprisal tariffs would sink us faster.

The point about not hiring folks without experience is nothing new—that has been going on for eons.

And from the management perspective, aside from teachers there is not another group of entitled workers worse than nurses.

.

[khelus]

The point about not hiring folks without experience is nothing new—that has been going on for eons.

That is not true. Once upon a time there were apprenticeships and jobs in which one was not considered a permanent employee for several years. Sometimes one was hired summers during high school / college depending upon whether a blue collar, pink collar or white collar job. In exchange for a lower salary one spent several years learning once's craft / job and the employer got a chance to evaluate your work ethic and potential value as a permanent employee.

Once upon a time a skilled, experienced, proven worker was considered an asset and given on the job training to increase their skills and value. The work ethic consisted of a unwritten contract of an honest day's work for an honest days pay.

A lot of what has changed that is political correctness/cultural marxism and the EEOC which makes removing people for good cause difficult.

The problem with your answer is that we do not have the facilities or trained skilled workers. I don’t mean people willing to work—I mean enough people with the skills to make anything. To be redundant:

• The facilities we can rebuild; the labor we have.
• We still have skilled, experienced, proven people with a work ethic. They have been tossed aside. They are either unemployed, under employed, or have been 'moved' out of the civilian labor force.
• Jobs American can't / won't do is a myth to justify CHEAP labor.
• Hospital shout shortage of nurses while firing experienced, proven nurses and replacing them with cheap guest workers. Hospitals also will no longer hire new grads because they lack experience. The same in IT, engineering, skilled blue collar work, factory work, construction, teaching, medicine, accounting, management, legal work, research, day care, models, dental work, secretarial work, tax analysis etc.
  
  FYI even Adam Smith approved of tariffs under certain circumstances. labor force.

[IndianChief]

The Maldives are off the Indian coast.

Argentina claims what they call the Malvinas (Falklands).

So no, it won’t upset the Argentinians if India patrols the seas off the Maldives.