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Franklin & Marshall College Poll
Franklin and Marshall College ^ | 16 Aug 2012 | Yost, Madonna, Knittle, Huebner

Posted on 08/16/2012 6:21:26 AM PDT by ScottinVA

The August 2012 Franklin & Marshall College Poll finds increasing voter interest in the presidential election. President Barack Obama continues to lead his Republican challenger Mitt Romney, although his advantage is smaller than in June.


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; obama; pennsylvania; romney
In this, the first poll in PA that at least partially reflects voter reaction to the addition of Paul Ryan to the GOP ticket, Romney has more than halved his deficit (0bama +12 in June). That pollsters had to reach to a dem+13 sampling to get this narrow result speaks to the growing possibility that perhaps PA is in play after all.
1 posted on 08/16/2012 6:21:34 AM PDT by ScottinVA
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To: ScottinVA

Makes you wonder what the sampling will be mid-October. +50?


2 posted on 08/16/2012 6:24:37 AM PDT by COBOL2Java (FUMR)
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To: COBOL2Java

In other words, Romney is ahead in Pennsylvania. This is a game changer. Obama can’t win without Pennsylvania. Ever.


3 posted on 08/16/2012 6:26:10 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: COBOL2Java

This is absolutely... absurd? insane?

The oversampling is so blatant that it’s hard to see how these people put these poll results out with a straight face.


4 posted on 08/16/2012 6:28:19 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working fors)
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To: ScottinVA

So true.

Pee-Pee-Pee and NBC-Mar(x)ist had better hurry up and produce their obligatory monthly Obama-leads-by-15+ polls to quash rumblings up there that Obama could actually be defeated.


5 posted on 08/16/2012 6:29:18 AM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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To: COBOL2Java

The bigger question is when do they go to only Democrats polled?

Pray for America


6 posted on 08/16/2012 6:30:15 AM PDT by bray (Take out the commies in November!)
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To: ScottinVA

I don’t believe any polls; they’re all skewed +%pts to lib-dems, and mean nothing. PA is in play, as are many other lib-dem places. America’s had more than enough of that POS in the White Hut. Romney-Ryan need to ratchet-up the attacks and be unrelenting until Nov 6th. 0bummer’s extremely vulnerable and they need to go in for the kill. Forget being civil; it doesn’t work.


7 posted on 08/16/2012 6:31:25 AM PDT by carriage_hill (Harry Reid [PERVERT-NV] has Vickie-the-goat in lingerie & stiletto heels, tied-up in his office.)
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To: WashingtonSource

PA FReepers, what’s the true, unvarnished assessment of the D vs R proportion up there? I find it VERY difficult to believe it’s D+13.


8 posted on 08/16/2012 6:31:29 AM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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To: ScottinVA

If the best the Moron-In-Chief can get is 47% in a bogus +13D poll of REGISTERED voters, one would have to conclude that he is toast Scotty!


9 posted on 08/16/2012 6:32:49 AM PDT by Kahuna
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To: ScottinVA

If it helps, Obama beat McCain in 2008 54.4% to 44.2%.


10 posted on 08/16/2012 6:33:12 AM PDT by DaveInDallas
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To: ScottinVA

I tried to look up voter registration records, and they are in excel documents with tabs for each week of the year.

I’m not fishing through that to find the answer.


11 posted on 08/16/2012 6:33:40 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working fors)
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To: ScottinVA

Looks like Romney will need to write off Pennsylvania. Hope it can be replaced.


12 posted on 08/16/2012 6:34:28 AM PDT by tsowellfan (Voting for Obama/Biden is like purposely swallowing two tapeworms)
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To: DaveInDallas

Interesting, that’s a +10 in the “year of insanity”.
I wonder what it was in 2010, the year of the “recovery from hangover”.


13 posted on 08/16/2012 6:35:58 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working fors)
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To: MrB; DaveInDallas
I’m not fishing through that to find the answer.

No problem... was just wondering if anyone knew the true number off the top.

Dave, thanks.. I'll bet the spread is probably half that now, all factors considered this year.

14 posted on 08/16/2012 6:36:38 AM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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To: tsowellfan
Looks like Romney will need to write off Pennsylvania. Hope it can be replaced

Sarcasm (I hope)?

15 posted on 08/16/2012 6:37:55 AM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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To: ScottinVA

If the Voter ID Law stands, you can put a fork in Barry. PA has been trending R in recent State elections for good reason. ....coal, gas, gay marriage ect.


16 posted on 08/16/2012 6:37:55 AM PDT by Kahuna
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To: ScottinVA
Meanwhile the Philadelphia Inquirer is going bananas over the court decision upholding Pennsylvania's Voter ID Law. There are several articles today criticizing, analyzing and just general hand-wringing about the effects of the new Law.

Can voter-ID laws affect the outcome of an election?

17 posted on 08/16/2012 6:38:13 AM PDT by Tallguy (It's all 'Fun and Games' until somebody loses an eye!)
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To: ScottinVA
Looking at ALL aspects of the Polled information, it's really hard to believe that Pennsylvanian's are that stupid...party skewed or not.

I'm not buying it!!

18 posted on 08/16/2012 6:39:56 AM PDT by harpu ( "...it's better to be hated for who you are than loved for someone you're not!")
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To: ScottinVA

What is the actual ratio of Dem/Rep in PA?


19 posted on 08/16/2012 6:41:06 AM PDT by wolfman23601
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To: ScottinVA

lol

Democrats do not have a +13 point advantage in Penn! heck they don’t even have that kind of advantage in California!


20 posted on 08/16/2012 6:47:17 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama lied .. the economy died.)
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To: ScottinVA

I’ve been saying this for a while now folks, but people aren’t listening.

PA and MI are most definitely IN PLAY this election. Obama’s policies have completely turned off blue dog democrats, and PA’s democrats are by and large these folks. God Fearing, Hard Working folks who basically vote D because that’s what they have always done due to historical Union ties and labor... Obama has thrown these folks UNDER THE DAMNED BUS for 4 years, litterally spit in their faces.

They aren’t radical leftists, they go to church on sunday, work hard during the week and don’t believe “SOMEONE ELSE MADE THAT HAPPEN”.

Obama has LOST HUGE support in this area, and in PA in particular its going to be damned hard for him to win without it. May he win? Perhaps, but it will be by a very narrow margin, if he is able to pull it out, and he’s going to have to spend TONS of money and time here to hope to do it. I personally don’t think he will win PA.

I can’t find a single swing voter I know voted for him in ‘08 planning on doing so again, and I know MANY life long democrats who have dutifully showed up every election to pull the straight line D lever who are openly admitting they regret putting this guy in office and will be voting for Romney in the fall.

Various polls have sown 20% of registered democrats plan to vote for Romney, I’d say in PA its at LEAST that many if not more.

I firmly believe the BATTLEGROUND is going to be places like PA and MI. I firmly believe, NC and FL are not even in play. They are solid R and will remain so, polls just aren’t fully reflecting the realities yet.

The Rust Belt I believe is DEAD to Obama, the only states I think he can consider himself safe in would be IL and MN... he is certainly going to lose IN, its not even a race there, as well as WI, IA, and OH. If Obama takes PA this fall it will only be by the slimmest of margins, and I feel the same way with MI, and will have to spend TONS of time and $$$ here to pull it off, and frankly I don’t think its possible.

I have never seen such a movement of Enthusiasm to DISGUST in 4 years. Folks I knew 4 years ago were over the moon he won, and now at best I can find some grudging support among dems who offer nothing more than “well he’s better than Romney, or at least he’s not Bush” not one can or even tries to offer a real defense of the man. I really honestly don’t see PA staying Obama’s this fall.

Again, anything could happen, I completely misread the supressed voter turnout by republicans in PA 4 years ago, but I truly don’t see it.

I think honestly Casey may be gone this election too.. It will be interesting to see how that race shapes up. Casey basically just has his dads name, and that’s it, and unlike last time where he ran against Santorum who was so hated by voters by that election he lost by 17+ points to Casey who literally no showed the campaign, it will be interesting to see how Casey fairs this time, he has the personality of a doornob... It will be interesting to see if his challenger can actually put up enough of a race to force Casey to come out from whatever rock he’s been hiding under for the last 6 years and engage. If he does, I think Casey will lose, if he can’t get enough momentum to pull Casey out of hiding then Casey just gets re-elected without really campaigning.

Time will tell on the Senate, but PA is either going to be an incredibly tight hold for Dems or a loss, no one should cound PA as SOLID for the dems this time around.

Life Long dye in the wool democrats are dejected by this fool, there won’t be huge turnouts for them.. Many may not vote for Romney, but a lot will either skip the presidential question on the ballot or just stay home rather than vote for this fool again.


21 posted on 08/16/2012 6:49:46 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: ScottinVA
Thought this poll showed a good result because of the high undecideds. I believe F&M polls do not 'push' leaners to make a choice, so they usually have higher undecided, but a 47-42 result for F&M is probably a 49-47 result for another pollster since the undecideds are probably majority Romney/Ryan.

Combined with the voter ID law and the war on coal and the war on religion (Catholics in particular) and I believe PA is in play.

Regarding the sample, I try not to worry about that too much; it's a good way to waste a lot of time. Some samples are good, some are okay, some are bad.

22 posted on 08/16/2012 6:51:52 AM PDT by Skulllspitter
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To: wolfman23601

51% D - 37% R

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states


23 posted on 08/16/2012 6:52:25 AM PDT by franklog
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To: wolfman23601
What is the actual ratio of Dem/Rep in PA?

Here is the 2008 data per the NYT.

NYT 2008 Presidential Election Exit Poll

D/R/I = 44/37/18

And some 2010 data.

For the Sestak vs. Toomey race for the Senate seat in 2010 the D/R/I breakdown by Party ID was 40/37/23.

CNN Exit Poll PA Senate Race 2010

Summary:

D+7 in 2008.

D+3 in 2010.

D+13 Not a chance for 2012.

24 posted on 08/16/2012 7:03:19 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (.)
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To: ScottinVA

In Philly and Pittsburgh, it’s strong Dem. That is hard to overcome. I live in Lancaster and it’s usually very conservative. I’m assuming that it will continue that trend.


25 posted on 08/16/2012 7:05:52 AM PDT by justice14 ("stand up defend or lay down and die")
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To: wolfman23601
PA exit polls:

2008: D44, R37, Ind18

2010: D40, R37, Ind23

26 posted on 08/16/2012 7:16:16 AM PDT by Skulllspitter
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To: justice14

Obambi will continue to rack up votes in Philly, but in blue collar Pittsburgh, I don’t see him doing nearly as well this time around.

Given this poll’s skew towards the RATs, I treat it as very good news. If nothing else, the trend is definitely in the right direction.


27 posted on 08/16/2012 7:17:56 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: ScottinVA

2008 Election D’s had a 1.2 Million registration advantage and Obama won the election by just over 600,000 votes in an election with just over 6 Million votes cast.

Currently as of this month Dems do have about a 1.075 Million registration advantage, and that sounds daunting, but keep in mind what has happened since 2008 here. We have a Republican Governor, we sent Pat Toomey to the Senate. In fact EVERY statewide office that has faced election since 2008 (not including 2008, but since 2008) has been won by a Republican. Both state houses are Republican as well.

Simple registration is NOT a good indicator of success here, PHILLY, HARRISBURG and PITT are democratic bastions, with Philly area being the beast that must be survived. Republicans will likely NEVER win the Philly region in a state wide race, but if they can come out of there without being overwhelmed utterly, they can and do win.

You don’t have a corrupt democratic governor to use state resources to campaign for Obama here this time either...

Obama will NOT win PA by 10 points, I think his best bet is a slight win here, and to pull that off he’s going to spend a LOT of money and time. Watch what the president does, if you seem him visiting PA more than once or twice a month between now and election day, that tells you PA is not solid for him.. If you see ROMNEY in the state fequently between now and election day, that tells you PA is not solid for Obama.. and I personally feel it is not. PA is not an uber liberal state, its a blue dog state, and Obama’s term has been nothing but endless slaps to the face to the Blue Dogs. I really think PA is in Play and Romney can win here, best Obama can hope for is to squeak out PA if republicans bring the fight into his sandbox here IMHO.


28 posted on 08/16/2012 7:29:09 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: comebacknewt

I agree that it’s trending in the right direction. I dont’ know about Pittsburgh though. It’s a big union city and all those people hear is that Romney will destroy their union ways.


29 posted on 08/16/2012 7:32:12 AM PDT by justice14 ("stand up defend or lay down and die")
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To: comebacknewt

Romney will cut into Philly suburbs - married women who in 2008 voted against their own husband’s paycheck. They will vote their pocketbook this year.

Philly suburbs + war on coal throughout the State will make PA a real battleground.

Forcing Obama to spend a fortune in Philly market alone is a huge victory.


30 posted on 08/16/2012 7:36:50 AM PDT by mwl8787
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To: harpu

Well, if you looked at the data, you have Zero with a 6% lead based on a 13% oversample of Ds when the D/R ratio in 2010 was 6%. I call that a tie. But will the 2012 turnout be better for Dems? Hard to tell because it’s a presidential year. But you have 15% undecided!!! wow.


31 posted on 08/16/2012 7:39:07 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: ScottinVA
The party id split in PA should be 4.8. Not 13.


32 posted on 08/16/2012 7:45:46 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: InterceptPoint

Gotcha. Wasn’t sure it was that close. I know there are a lot of blue dogs in the Western part of the state.


33 posted on 08/16/2012 7:59:39 AM PDT by wolfman23601
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To: nhwingut
The party id split in PA should be 4.8. Not 13.
I believe that's for a likely voter sample, which includes independent leaners, not a registered voter sample, which is based on registration.
34 posted on 08/16/2012 8:11:15 AM PDT by franklog
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To: franklog

West Virginia is heavily Democrat and votes Republican in Presidential races. One might see a similar effect in Pennsylvania, but more muted, since more of the Ds are minorities. Liberals like to joke that Pennsylvania is made up of Philadelphia in the East and Pittsburgh in the West with Alabama in between. To a great extent they say that to make fun of the “hillbillies and hicks” across the state, assuming the “peons” will vote D, representing their class interests. But, considering how Alabama now votes, their snarky comment may still carry a grain of truth — but with a different electoral outcome than what they expect.


35 posted on 08/16/2012 10:55:47 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: nhwingut

Interesting that Oregon is on the list. Very few are polling Oregon because they don’t believe it is a swing state, but based on these statistics, it should be seen as a swing state.


36 posted on 08/16/2012 10:57:50 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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