TWC doesn't control the operation of numerical weather prediction models, they are operated by multiple organizations within the National Weather Service, the Navy, Canada, the UK, and a European consortium.
The models are changing and NHC is moving the track because of aircraft reconnaissance ingesting more accurate data. To deliberately manipulate the raw model output would require an international conspiracy of simply breathtaking scope, and I doubt that as much as one neuron of anyone at the National Hurricane Center has had a political thought in the last week.
Any suggestion otherwise is the ultimate in conspiracy nut idiocy.
I understand but while many of the models did take it on a western track days ago, TWC keep reporting on the models hugging the west coast of Florida. Call me a conspiracy nut...lol. I don’t trust these folks anymore. Just look at what they have done with the false claims of globul warming!!
They’re not diddling the model output.
They’re just ignoring the models that don’t fit their preconceived FL hit notions. Starting Thursday evening the models began to drift westward, one by one. Friday they began swiping back and forth between SELA and FL. Instead of saying something like ‘everyone between Houston and Tampa need to pay attention!’ they essentially ignored anything west of Mobile Bay. Beginning yesterday the models began proving west writ large. The only major outlier at that point was the Euro. Still they said nothing about SELA. It wasn’t even in the cone of concern. What they DID say regarding models impacting their forecast path/landfall was ‘keeping continuity of forecast’ or some such happy horsehockey. In other words, not moving the forecast too much for each update was MORE important than alerting people that there appeared to be TWO important model solutions and get ready. This morning, there were essentially TWO sets of model forecasts. One to the FL panhandle/Mobile Bay, the other to SELA from Vermillion Bay/Breton.
But, local officials, having been burned in much the same way with Katrina (VIPR took the K storm to FL) are already taking matters into their own hands. They’re closing flood gates and declaring states of emergency right now.
Let’s just hope ALL the models are wrong and it goes to Texas or Mexico. Gently.
The last GFS run puts it right at the mouth of the river, slogs it along the coastline moving west and then inland somewhere near Vermillion bay or a little west. WORST case scenario. Let’s hope it’s just wrong.
The boot of La needs at least 60 hrs to evac. They might not have that by the time the NHC gets around to deciding maybe the evil pubbies won’t get hit after all. And if you don’t think government weather science has an agenda and is unbiased perhaps you’ve missed all the ‘great’ unbiased international science wrt global warming?