Posted on 09/23/2012 5:18:04 PM PDT by Red Steel
No they’re not. My fellow Freepers are driving me nuts with this poll weighting BS.
This poll is accurately sampled. Ohio clearly has more Democrats than Republicans. In fact, I’m surprised it is only +6. Someone just posted the exit poll from 2008 and if this was actually weighted like that, it would be O up by even more.
Get your heads out of your arses and start dealing with reality. The polls are accurate! No pollster sits around and puts their reputation, and business, on the line just to screw Republicans.
Maybe Kasich has been too good for Ohio for Romney to win there?
“Such polls are meant to influence the voting.”
Precisely! These polls are bunk!
Conservatives are even more fired up now, knowing that Obamacare has passed the first round of Supreme Court muster...
Cheers!
Mitch Daniels did a good job with the Indiana budget and Baraq is down 12 points from 2008. So I’m not sure having a Republican governor is a bad thing POTUS-election wise.
Surely you jest. We've seen D+19 polls around here. Reputation preservation went out the window long ago.
Fortunately, we have some truth tellers like Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics.
The polls are oversampled because the enthusiasm of Obama voters compared to 08 is significant, especially when compared to 04 or 2010, the polls are indeed oversampled Democrat AND biased...on purpose.
Here’s another BS alert from the article:
“When asked about the president’s health care law, 48 percent of respondents said they want Congress to expand the law or keep it as is. Romney and Republicans have made opposition to the policies, cheered and jeered by supporters and critics alike as Obamacare, a cornerstone of the campaign. Though Ohioans last fall at the ballot box renounced the administration’s health care mandate by a 2-to-1 margin, only 44 percent of poll respondents said they want it repealed.
Obama’s announcement in May that he supports gay marriage might nudge voters slightly toward Romney, who opposes it. But 50 percent of those surveyed said the issue will not make a difference in their vote for president.”
On health care the poll finds results flatly contradicted by all current polling and even the results of 2010 elections in Ohio.
The last line on gay marriage concedes that close to 50 percent of Ohioans are affected by his stance on gay marriage. That is not good news for Obama.
I do not know if it is 55%, but I agree there is some % in 2008 for the states that Obama will lose this time around. I can not see his % going up in any state and it will likely go down in most.
Your 55% rule says Romney will win:
1. Colorado, Obama won with 53.66% in 2008
2. Florida, 50.91%
3. Indiana, 49.85%
4. Iowa, 53.93%
5. Minnesota, 54.06%
6. New Hampshire, 54.13%
7. North Carolina, 49.70%
8. Ohio, 51.38%
9. Pennsylvania, 54.47%
10. Virginia, 52.63%
This would lead to a Romney winning the electoral college by 331 to 207.
Your rule of thumb is pretty good. Still my view is that Romney is more likely to win Wisconsin, 56.22% in 2008 or Michigan, 57.33%, or Nevada, 55.15%, than Pennsylvania. I am also not so sure about Minnesota.
I do think from that list Romney is likely to win Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Florida and Ohio.
Will half the voters in ohio really be dems?
48 percent said they were Democrats, 42 percent Republicans and 10 percent independent.
2008 Ohio Exit polls.
38% Dem
31% Rep
30% Ind
I call this Poll BS.
Party registration in Ohio is actually 37R-36D. Oversampled Dems to manufacture an over 50 point lead for O
Actual party Registration in OH is 37R-36D just another massive Democrat oversampled poll
No they are not. Your fellow Freepers are trying to make you understand polling
If you poll 40D-25R-35I you get one poll result. If you poll 35D-30R-35I you get a 10 point shift in the poll results. The Dem loses 5 points and the GOP picks up 5. How the sample is put together makes all the difference in the results of the polling.
Currently you have polls showing Obama winning and you have polls showing Romney winning. Both cannot be right. What your fellow Freepers are doing is telling you why the Pro Obama polls are wrong by crunching the data. YOU are basing your posts on nothing but YOUR opinion.
Actual party Registration in OH is 37R-36D this is just another massive Democrat oversampled poll
35-35-30 would probably be more like it. Media is really trying to make O inevitable.
University of Mount Union ... Riiiight
Over sampled Dems by 12 Oversampled Rep by 5 and understampled I by 17.
Maybe someone can explain to me how these polls sample is determined.
If a pollster randomly calls 1,000 people and of that they get 500 who identify as Dems, 400 who indentify as GOP and 100 as indies, do they then report what the candidate preference was of those 1,000 and then list the breakdown as 50D, 40R and 10I?
Or do they go back and then say they think the electorate this fall will be 45 D, 40R and 15I and then take that percentage of people from the 1,000 thus the result reported may actually only reflect 900 of the people they called?
“Or do they go back and then say they think the electorate this fall will be 45 D, 40R and 15I and then take that percentage of people from the 1,000 thus the result reported may actually only reflect 900 of the people they called?”
That is exactly what they do, they also weigh it by race and other factors.
There are polls that do just that.
There are also pollsters who base their sample on the last Presidential Election year turn out. This is part of where you get the Democrat oversampled. 2008 was an abnormally good year for Dems. A reasonably conservative estimate is a 36D-32R-32I sample is reasonable for a national poll
All of these polls have biases factors. They are weighted by gender, race, age, cell phone use etc.Pollsters who do it for a living try really hard to find a rational sample mix. But even the best polling is an educated guess.
Media pollsters do not bother to try to be accurate. Their polling is push polling designed to generate a headline or validate a preconceived story line. No one goes back and tracks how far off reality they were.
The problem is too many Americans define reality by what the polls tell them to belive. The Leftists know this and exploit it.
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