Skewed Polls Unskewed

unskewedpolls.com ^ | 09-25-2012 | Staff

[Red Badger]

Here's the place you can go to get the real polling numbers the MSM won't allow...........

[lonestar]

Obama is a slippery Socialist!

[Focault's Pendulum]

We may have overloaded their 56k modem..........

Baud rate, 2.

[AaronInCarolina]

Reweighting polls with skewed samples (that provide enough internals to allow this) can lead to a more accurate result. However, I’m not certain that unskewedpolls.com’s use of Rasmussen’s August 2012 party affiliation data as weights isn’t too extreme a correction, leading to too rosy a picture of GOP prospects this fall.

I agree. It's a little suspicious when Rasmussen part-ID weighting when applied to these other polls gives Rasmussen a significantly larger advantage than Rasmussen's own poll, which recently has had had Romney down a point or two.

It would seem that these "unskewed" polls are doing a bit of over-correction.

[AaronInCarolina]

The above should read:

“gives Romney a significantly larger advantage than Rasmussen’s own poll, “

[The_Reader_David]

The problem is party ID doesn’t translate directly into turn-out. O will still get a boost from black racism turning more D’s out to vote for him and the purist faction of the conservative movement may sit on their hands depressing the GOP vote. I’m inclined to expect something like the average of the 2008 and 2010 turnout figures, rather than the August party ID figures.