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Update: OH Absentees (looking good)
Jay Cost's spreadsheet on OH early/absentee voters ^ | 9/28/2012 | LS (courtesy of Jay Cost)

Posted on 09/28/2012 7:40:27 AM PDT by LS

Two updates today by Jay:

Cuyahoga (heavily Dem Cleveland) county is STILL underperforming, coming in at 6% under 2008 levels.

Hamilton (Cincinnati) is just under 2:1 Rs, a net gain of just under 7 points for the Republicans over 08.

Franklin (Columbus) which went for Obama by 21(!) shows a very small but steadily increasing R lead in total votes (+5893) for a significant swing (+9 over 08 absentees, +26 overall for Rs).

Summit (near Cleveland, went for Obama by just under 18 points) now has a 5.5% lead for Ds and Rs within 1200 votes of actually taking the lead!


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; absentees; obama; oh2012; ohio; romney
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My analysis: I don't see any way in hell Zero wins with these numbers. The margins are improving constantly in the R direction, even in the heavy blue counties.

BTW, Big Hollywood asked me to write up our analysis here of these numbers, then rejected the piece, expressing concern about "getting ahead of the numbers."

They lost a lot when Breitbart left, including, apparently courage.

1 posted on 09/28/2012 7:40:40 AM PDT by LS
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; Evil Slayer; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; ...

If you want on the ping list, contact me or Jet Jaguar


2 posted on 09/28/2012 7:42:05 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

As we FReepers knew, the polls are lying sacks of shite.


3 posted on 09/28/2012 7:43:56 AM PDT by Mich Patriot (BLACK is the new "transparent")
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To: LS

Economically things will only get worse from now until the end of the year. I just don’t see how Obama wins. I don’t care what they say, Obama’s base just does NOT have the stomach to vote for this loser. And Independents/Undecideds will break heavily for Romney given the lousy economy and outlook.


4 posted on 09/28/2012 7:44:22 AM PDT by Obadiah (The 2008 crisis is long over. The crisis now is Obama's non-recovery.)
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To: LS

Looks like some of the Dims are tired of playing the role of useful idiot. Let’s hope it continues.


5 posted on 09/28/2012 7:44:52 AM PDT by ILS21R (The time is nigh.)
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To: LS

LS -

Will similar data also be available once in-person early voting starts? In other words, will the counties post how many D/R/I actually showed up each day to vote?

Also, what security procedures are in place to prevent someone from casting an absentee ballot and then showing up on the election day to vote in person?


6 posted on 09/28/2012 7:47:46 AM PDT by mrs9x
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To: LS

Releasing these numbers only keeps some at home thinking it’s in the bag. It’s great news, and I’m not faulting the Freeper who posted this, I’m simply saying this can have a negative effect on the bottom line.


7 posted on 09/28/2012 7:48:34 AM PDT by albie
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To: albie

Disagree. This is not a “we-got-it-in-the-bag” type election. This is an election of national survival and the majority of people see this election as a means of direct self preservation and not mere partisan politics. They will go to the polls accordingly and not based on whether “their guy” is ahead or not. There is no “our guy” in this election.


8 posted on 09/28/2012 7:52:52 AM PDT by Obadiah (The 2008 crisis is long over. The crisis now is Obama's non-recovery.)
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To: LS

Could you add me to the ping list please.....


9 posted on 09/28/2012 7:55:10 AM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
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To: mrs9x

I think early voting by registration is released, though, obviously, not vote counts. I’ll check.


10 posted on 09/28/2012 7:55:24 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS
Btw LS, Ihope your reporting/analysis is accurate and correct. This county is one of the most important in OH. I remember in 2004 Mike Barone going over the numbers in this county on election night and knew that Kerry would not win.

I have been paying attention to your posts.

11 posted on 09/28/2012 7:55:57 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: LS

Can you add me? Thx


12 posted on 09/28/2012 7:57:07 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: LS

The MSM is reporting that it’s Romney who will have to overcome the early votes for Obama. SO this is good news.


13 posted on 09/28/2012 7:57:28 AM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: Obadiah

True. If Romney was up by 50 points I would still show up and vote just to make a statement and have the honor of sticking the knife into the heart of the evil vampire regime myself.


14 posted on 09/28/2012 7:58:18 AM PDT by MrDem (Founder: Democrats for Cheney/Palin 2012)
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To: LS
Still way to early.

Anout 5,500,000 votes will be cast in Ohio for the election.

Hopefully Cuyahoga/Franklin combined will be less than 50% of the absentee ballots.

As of now, they are about 32-33%.

15 posted on 09/28/2012 8:01:25 AM PDT by LdSentinal
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To: LS
The margins are improving constantly in the R direction, even in the heavy blue counties.

I still believe there are lots of blue-collar Reagan democrats who will vote for Romney but don't want to admit it to anyone. They are patriotic.

16 posted on 09/28/2012 8:02:08 AM PDT by MrDem (Founder: Democrats for Cheney/Palin 2012)
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To: LS

Please put me on the ping list. Thanks!


17 posted on 09/28/2012 8:02:14 AM PDT by Starrling
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To: LS

Please add me to ping list...thanks.


18 posted on 09/28/2012 8:02:19 AM PDT by matginzac
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To: CaptainK

I think they are referring to Iowa in regards to Obama getting more early votes. The last time I saw those numbers it was heavily Dem. So hopefully things will even out there, but at least it is a lot more favorable in Ohio which is more important anyway.


19 posted on 09/28/2012 8:02:26 AM PDT by over3Owithabrain
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To: Obadiah

I totally agree...
Everyone says motivation is high on our side...
Kick the bastard out of the white house sentiment is not going to diminish.
How many times have you seen “I’d drag myself over broken glass to get to the polls this election” posted?
So polling be damned...we will vote regardless.


20 posted on 09/28/2012 8:06:08 AM PDT by matginzac
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