Posted on 09/30/2012 7:31:31 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If you do not already have a Rasmussen Reader account, subscribe now.
Platinum Members have access to detailed demographic information.
In the 11 swing states, President Obama earns 48% support to Mitt Romney’s 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
This is the widest gap in the race since September 6 when Romney held a four-point lead as his bounce from the Republican National Convention peaked. Obama has now been ahead for nine of the last 11 days. For two days late last week, the candidates were tied.
In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.
When “leaners” are factored in, the president leads Romney 50% to 45%. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
I think it is about a +6 Dem poll.
Romney is running campaign exactly like failed Meg Whitman campaign for Gov California.
Outcome will be same.
They think by targeting specific demography will help them. Till now campaign had failed to excite people, enthusiasm is zilch nada zero as of now even among base.
“If these numbers are to be believed Obama is poised to win by at least as big of margins as he got in 2008. Un-effin-believable”!.......mittens is just mccain with hair colorin’
How in the f*ck can Obama be up by 4 among men (or behind among women). This really calls into question the entire poll I’d think.
“If” the numbers are right, and the recent trends as well, Mitt may be in some serious trouble.
This poll looks fishy.
0bama is up by 4.
Romney has a +4 up on Indies
Romney has more GOPers than Mugabe has Dems by one.
Romeny is leading women by 4, Mugabe leads by 7 with men.
I think this at least a D+6 poll......
why is ras operatin’ just like the other pollsters?
A lot of folks had ignored the impact the media would have.
The liberal media has come close to destroying this nation.
It’s the usual weekend polling swing .
It’s fall and no one but Dems collecting a check are at home
This just doesn’t make any sense....how can Obama pull away in less than a few days? Also, is there REALLY the enthusiasm for Obama like the levels of 2008? I see the data, but my instincts tell me something is wrong here.
Looks like gut check time is drawing close for Romney. His task now is to turn this thing around. Not saying either way if he can do it. Just saying it’s time to lay the boom on Obama.
Because Axelrod and Nate Silver have battered him
Into submission .
Bill maher was trashing him too .
It’s a coordinated media attack to shut him
Down and to tow the line which looks like they won .
A ridiculous + 6 dem based on nothing
Or that 12% of self-identified conservatives are certain to vote for Obama? Something smells funny here. One out of eight? Really?
The polls keep making it seem like 2008 all over again but I’m just not seeing dem enthusiasm even remotely close to 2008. I live right outside Pittsburgh, PA in an old steel town (heavy dem area). In 2008 I couldn’t drive 25 feet without passing a house with an Obama/Biden sign. I have yet to see 1 sign so far this year. Just no way the dems turnout in numbers remotely close to 2008. If we turn out in numbers like 2010 we will win.
Convential wisdom is that Reagan's debate performance convinced votgers that it wss "safe" to vote for him...how come nobody ever asks is maybe ALL the polls were way off..
I check the American Life Panel daily. They update daily at 1am. It is the same group of people but interesting.
Click on some of the other tabs on the page, and if it doesn’t show a chart, refresh the page.
https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php?page=election#shifts-between-candidates
Your response is exact why in Europe polling is banned 2 months before the election .
Polls are meant to manipulate people to not vote and give up .
David Axelrod created modern day media AstroTurf and he knows the power of bad polls has on the public !
He has demanded the 2008 model be used and every one including Ras are now using it .
Don’t fall for it
“Their deranged form of progress is cancerous”
actually the patient (America) is on life support and near the end of a death watch...the high doses of morphine (obama) has done it’s final damage!
Why is everyone so surprised? Romney is running a shit campaign. I see Obama and Clinton ads every half hour. On cooking shows, on sports shows, on news shows. EVERYWHERE. I haven’t seen a Romney ad in days. And would it matter if I did? All he talks about is the stupid debt, which NO ONE cares about. He will not go after Obama, because his advisers tell him “but the NYT Politico might call it racist!!!” If this doesn’t change within 1 week he is toast.
It’s more than that. Romney has better support from his own party, better support from the other party, and better support from independents. The only way this works is assuming a major turnout shift.
You are wrong. You keep listening to the media.. You are doing exactly what they want you to do. They want you to not even bother to go out to vote.
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