Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

CNN poll: Obama’s bounce gone, race now statistically tied
hotair.com ^ | 10/1/12 | Allahpundit

Posted on 10/01/2012 4:43:43 PM PDT by Justaham

In CNN’s last poll, taken soon after the Democratic convention, O led by six among likely voters. That lead’s now cut in half, to within the margin of error, despite weeks of media doomsaying about Romney’s campaign. In fact, the last four national polls all have the race within two or three points with a bounce opportunity for Romney looming 48 hours from now. I think the first debate will essentially be an audition for him: Obama’s the ultimate known quantity but, for millions of low-information voters, this’ll be the first time they see Romney in action. If he’s as composed and articulate as he was in the GOP primary debates, he’s bound to see some positive movement among undecideds regardless of what Obama does.

Even more encouraging here: As our Greenroomer Karl pointed out on Twitter, Obama’s lead among registered voters (50/46) is almost identical to his lead among likely voters (50/47), which means there isn’t much difference in the partisan split between the two samples. That’s unusual; typically a sample of likelies is a few points more Republican than a sample of registereds. So, if anything, CNN might be underestimating just how well Romney’s doing right now. Also, note that not only does Romney lead by eight among CNN’s (tiny) sample of independents, but his support from Republicans is even more solid than Obama’s support from the Democrats:

(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-52 last
To: Justaham

Doubt there is a tie. Bet Romney has a double-digit lead, but Obama’s media want to keep that a secret just in case they need the “tie” meme for cheating later.


41 posted on 10/01/2012 6:40:49 PM PDT by madison10
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: BlueStateRightist

Why does leaving a state mean Romney is losing, couldn’t it mean that he is winning and there is no point in spending more money there, or that they think they have the state that Paul Ryan is from?

I think they are calling the game too early.


42 posted on 10/01/2012 6:43:11 PM PDT by madison10
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Justaham
"Even more encouraging here: As our Greenroomer Karl pointed out on Twitter, Obama’s lead among registered voters (50/46) is almost identical to his lead among likely voters (50/47), which means there isn’t much difference in the partisan split between the two samples. That’s unusual; typically a sample of likelies is a few points more Republican than a sample of registereds. So, if anything, CNN might be underestimating just how well Romney’s doing right now. Also, note that not only does Romney lead by eight among CNN’s (tiny) sample of independents, but his support from Republicans is even more solid than Obama’s support from the Democrats"

CNN 'holding back' because last chance to show Bobo with faux 'open lead' (still within MoE, but whatever). Ras has built in the slack 'in reverse'. The takeaway is, all the polls are poised for a post-debate breakout Thurs.-Fri. in an attempt to portray Undecideds moving off the dime. Better than 50-50 to be Mittens IF he comes off Presidential while kicking sand in his opponent's face.

Then you'd have a 49-49 or 49-48 going into the weekend that (supposedly) Mitten's shock&awe ad buy unleashes.

You get that scenario, and it'll be hand-to-hand precinct-by-precinct in IA, OH, CO. All ground game from there.

43 posted on 10/01/2012 6:55:07 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, IA = 272EV)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Justaham

Romney surged in the polls right before his convention and they’re tightening right before the first debate, now why would the MSM do that ?

They don’t want to report any Romney bounce after so they quietly up his numbers right before.


44 posted on 10/01/2012 7:32:06 PM PDT by Bigjimslade
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Mike Darancette

Yep!


45 posted on 10/01/2012 8:08:23 PM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: Mike Darancette
"This guy (securityman) is a RAT troll search on his posts. What a bunch of BS..."

Yep. There are a couple of them doing their best to demoralze up. Another one calls himself chopper something.

Unfortunately, FR doesn't have an "ignore" button.

Hank

46 posted on 10/01/2012 9:38:32 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball (Myth Romney is a vile Fabian Socialist - his opponent is infinitely worse. How did it come to this?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: Personal Responsibility
I don’t understand it. How can a state go for a guy like Walker - even reconfirming him and backing him after the left threw everything at him - and still go for Obama.

This bears repeating. Wisconsin has gone all in for rolling back public sector union power. Now we are supposed to believe the same people are going to re-elect Barry the Rat King of Union Kickbacks? That doesn't compute in the least.

47 posted on 10/01/2012 9:43:40 PM PDT by RightWingNilla
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: KansasGirl
"Romney leads with independents 49-41 in this latest CNN poll. They had to have way over-sampled Rats again."

And another oddity is that the race is only 2-3 points nationally in favor of Obama, but in the battleground states, Obama is doing just fantastically.

I was struck by the comment of one pollster that only 9% of people contacted agree to participate in a poll, which is way down from 36% a decade ago. Is their a political bias in who responds? Would a small businessman (likely a Republican) take the time to respond as readily as an unemployed deadbeat sitting on the couch all day eating his food-stamp cheetos? (likely a Dem). Their assumption is yes.

48 posted on 10/01/2012 9:48:03 PM PDT by cookcounty (Kagan and Sotomayor side with Joe Wilson: -------Obama DID lie!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: County Agent Hank Kimball
Unfortunately, FR doesn't have an "ignore" button.

Just narc them out and move on.

49 posted on 10/01/2012 9:59:46 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Take two Aspirin and call me in November - Obama for Hindmost.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 46 | View Replies]

To: Justaham

CNN hedging bets?


50 posted on 10/01/2012 10:01:39 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: cookcounty

Mine too.

Plus Libs know the media is their strongest support and will gleefully lie, cheat and steal for it.

Whereas many, if not most, conservatives knowing that the media is their deadly enemy and would not p... on it if it was on fire. They are FAR more likely to tell them and their pollsters to go f... itself.


51 posted on 10/01/2012 10:44:43 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 48 | View Replies]

To: Justaham

I don’t believe a thing these polls say.


52 posted on 10/02/2012 4:30:53 AM PDT by SilverKing88
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-52 last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson