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Should Obama Supporters Start Freaking Out?
Talking Points Memo ^ | October 9, 2012, 1:19 PM

Posted on 10/09/2012 2:41:24 PM PDT by drewh

No one on the left is making the case that President Obama’s listless first debate against Mitt Romney was a good thing for the campaign. The question now is how worried they should be amid early post-debate polling showing a Mitt Romney surge. Mild concern? Creeping fear? Full-blown freakout?

The undisputed captain of Team Freakout is Newsweek’s Andrew Sullivan, the longtime Obama supporter who has written a number of cover stories advocating for his campaign. His post-debate analysis of how Obama “plummeted into near-oblivion” is so spectacularly glum that it spawned its own parody account on Twitter, @SullyPanic (sample tweet: “After Wednesday’s debate I’m leaving the Catholic church. God is dead.”)

Team Freakout hit maximum garment-rending levels after a poll from the respected Pew Research Center dropped Monday showing Obama down 4 to Romney, a total collapse from Pew’s last survey in September showing the president with an 8-point lead. Another national poll by Democratic PPP found Romney taking a 2-point lead, his first of the year.

That said, more optimistic Democrats found several mitigating factors to keep them away from the ledge. Most notably, several pollsters, including Rasmussen, Gallup, PPP, and ABC News, found Romney surging (albeit less dramatically) in their own numbers — but only in the immediate aftermath of the debate. By the weekend, things seemed to be shifting back towards Obama. The bulk of Pew’s numbers came Thursday and Friday.

Tom Jensen, a pollster for the Democratic PPP, told TPM that he was still reserving judgment for now in the case of Team Freakout vs. Team Optimism.

“I am concerned about the polls in the last week, but not quite to the freaking out point,” he said. “I’ve been telling people since the Democratic convention that something crazy would have to happen for Obama not to win. I think the incredibly lopsided debate does qualify as ‘something crazy’ and that who will win is a much more uncertain question than it was a week ago.”

While Romney’s apparent dropoff in weekend polling was a positive sign for Democrats, Jensen suggested Democrats may need to wait a few days before either going nuclear or backing down to Defcon 5.

“I think if Romney’s continuing to run evenish nationally a week from now and if we’re starting to see some toss up or Romney leaning swing state [polls] from legitimate companies then it might be freak out time,” he said.

New York Times polling guru Nate Silver offered up a similar plea for calm on his blog. In addition to Romney possibly already coming back down to earth from his post-debate highs, Silver noted that most of the scariest swing state polls to emerge so far are from Republican-leaning outlets that actually pegged Obama at the same weak position when he had a dominant lead in national polls as well.

One Democratic strategist familiar with polling who didn’t want his name used due to his client list told TPM the polls he’s seeing in all-important swing states aren’t making him nervous. Yet.

“Nobody should be freaking out because we have yet to see a lot of good quality data in any of the swing states,” the strategist said. “I’ve already seen some quality polls in some of the swing states that show things to be relatively stable.”

He dismissed national polling as “largely irrelevant,” but did say movement for Romney post-debate is real.

“There was always going to be a tightening. Am I dismissing the movement? No,” he said. “Clearly something’s going on when 70 million people watch the debate. There’s clearly an interest in this stuff that’s at an all time high. So we can’t dismiss it but I think that the notion that the sky is falling is probably overdone.”


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Political Humor/Cartoons; Politics/Elections
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1 posted on 10/09/2012 2:41:25 PM PDT by drewh
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To: drewh

Now’s as good a time as any.................


2 posted on 10/09/2012 2:42:38 PM PDT by Red Badger (Is it just me, or is Hillary! starting to look like Benjamin Franklin?.................)
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To: drewh

I think the answer is YES.

Freak Out, Drop Out, Blow out, bow out, etc.


3 posted on 10/09/2012 2:45:25 PM PDT by jusduat (on the mercy of the Lord alone.)
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To: Red Badger

this woman was way ahead of the curve...The Obama Phone Lady Song http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwa3t-o4rmg&feature=related


4 posted on 10/09/2012 2:45:33 PM PDT by drewh
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To: drewh

Nobody should be freaking out because we have yet to see a lot of good quality data in any of the swing states,” the strategist said. “I’ve already seen some quality polls in some of the swing states that show things to be relatively stable.”

PA & OH aer tightening to single digits. R has the lead in FL.

Rasmussen has even CT a six point Obama lead.

Reletively stable ?


5 posted on 10/09/2012 2:47:32 PM PDT by Col Frank Slade
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To: drewh

Not yet. Four weeks is an eternity in politics.


6 posted on 10/09/2012 2:47:36 PM PDT by Delhi Rebels (There was a row in Silver Street - the regiments was out.)
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To: drewh

Ignoring the obvious—that Obozo supporters have been freaking out for some time—they seem to be discovering that Americans want to elect people who have accomplished things in the private sector not people who have failed in both the private sector (both Barack and Moochelle surrendered their law licenses) and in the public sector...and the American people seem to have caught on that Obama and his minions are epic failures.


7 posted on 10/09/2012 2:47:40 PM PDT by MIchaelTArchangel
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To: drewh

i doubt many in the famed 47% moved or will be moved. What happened is that the squishy mods firmed up for Romney and the undecided saw Romney as a true candidate and not just the fake cartoon the media tried to paint.

Barring some major event, I think what you see now is what the electorate will be on Election Day and the key will be about turnout, not changing voters’ minds.


8 posted on 10/09/2012 2:48:30 PM PDT by OrangeHoof (Our economy won't heal until one particular black man is unemployed.)
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To: jusduat

Bow out? ROFLMAO! Obamanites bowing?


9 posted on 10/09/2012 2:48:48 PM PDT by MIchaelTArchangel
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To: drewh
Oh why not?

Le Freak

10 posted on 10/09/2012 2:49:04 PM PDT by No Truce With Kings (Ten years on FreeRepublic and counting.)
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To: drewh
...several pollsters, including Rasmussen, Gallup, PPP, and ABC News, found Romney surging (albeit less dramatically) in their own numbers — but only in the immediate aftermath of the debate. By the weekend, things seemed to be shifting back towards Obama.

The liberal TPM is striving to keep the troops from bolting. This defies the polling results since the weekend.

11 posted on 10/09/2012 2:50:38 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: drewh

Who is going to know when they freak out? They are all a bunch of lying drama queen, tantrum throwers anyway, on a daily basis.


12 posted on 10/09/2012 2:52:38 PM PDT by austinaero
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To: drewh

Murders, suicides, drug overdoses, beatings, child abuses and the like are all going up.

That is the real Freak Out.


13 posted on 10/09/2012 2:54:37 PM PDT by Berlin_Freeper (Winning is Everything.)
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To: Red Badger

Yes, they should.........


14 posted on 10/09/2012 2:54:45 PM PDT by The_Media_never_lie (Actually, they lie when it suits them! The crooked MS media must be defeated any way it can be done!)
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To: drewh

I like THIS version:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ax-2i71bqGw&feature=related


15 posted on 10/09/2012 2:54:56 PM PDT by Red Badger (Is it just me, or is Hillary! starting to look like Benjamin Franklin?.................)
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To: drewh

Freak out?

Who could tell?


16 posted on 10/09/2012 2:56:09 PM PDT by Westbrook (Children do not divide your love, they multiply it.)
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To: Red Badger

my new ringtone http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pA1sVqSIfYA&feature=related


17 posted on 10/09/2012 2:57:24 PM PDT by drewh
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To: drewh

Why not? They are freaks.


18 posted on 10/09/2012 3:00:37 PM PDT by Hardraade (http://junipersec.wordpress.com (I will fear no muslim))
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To: drewh

LOL...is that really a ringtone?


19 posted on 10/09/2012 3:01:30 PM PDT by Irish Eyes
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To: drewh

I expect Chris Matthews head to explode on live TV before the election.


20 posted on 10/09/2012 3:01:58 PM PDT by CMailBag
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To: Hardraade

They reek of freak!


21 posted on 10/09/2012 3:02:31 PM PDT by Berlin_Freeper (Winning is Everything.)
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To: drewh
The Obama "Freaks" have been "out" for a long time


22 posted on 10/09/2012 3:04:46 PM PDT by PGR88
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To: Red Badger

Geeeze Louise, and a damn added on to that.....yikes!


23 posted on 10/09/2012 3:06:55 PM PDT by Irish Eyes
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To: drewh

They are already.

Where I live a 78 year old bus driver b1tch of a woman got into an political argument with a 12 year old boy on the bus, a private school bus for a catholic school, and was irked by his family’s Romney sign the last two weeks and has been harassing the kid since, when the kid said well Obama’s for abortion as a reason to vote against him, she told him maybe his mother should have aborted him.

No lie. The whackadoos are coming out full batsh1t crazy.


24 posted on 10/09/2012 3:07:11 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man (I can neither confirm or deny that; even if I could, I couldn't - it's classified.)
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To: PGR88

Oh goodness! I did not need to see that...


25 posted on 10/09/2012 3:09:52 PM PDT by luv2ski
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To: OrangeHoof
i doubt many in the famed 47% moved or will be moved.

Half of the 47% [maybe more] don't consider themselves to be part of it. They're Social Security and Medicare recipients who paid for their benefits or they're the unemployed and underemployed who'd rather be working or working more.

Romney's statement was clumsy, but I can't imagine it will hurt him.

26 posted on 10/09/2012 3:10:24 PM PDT by BfloGuy (Teach a man to fish and you lose a Democratic voter.)
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To: drewh
I'd say - it's time, based on his post turtle performance in the first debate - also, my understanding is that he's going for a 'FORWARD' (his 2012 logo) performance next time - He'll somehow fall off the post...from that point, I've attempted to depict how that will turn out....

It will not be a pretty sight - but of course, very entertaining!

27 posted on 10/09/2012 3:12:03 PM PDT by unique1
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To: CMailBag

If I miss that please tape and share. I love humor


28 posted on 10/09/2012 3:13:26 PM PDT by nclaurel
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To: PGR88

Santa dancing like that is appalling!


29 posted on 10/09/2012 3:15:04 PM PDT by nclaurel
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To: Secret Agent Man

WOW! Just WOW!
I tell both my 9 and 11-year-old Sons to keep politics in our home and cars.


30 posted on 10/09/2012 3:17:41 PM PDT by RandallFlagg ("Liberalism is about as progressive as CANCER" -Alfonzo Rachel)
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To: unique1

LOL!! I just stole that GIF.
Thanks.


31 posted on 10/09/2012 3:20:29 PM PDT by RandallFlagg ("Liberalism is about as progressive as CANCER" -Alfonzo Rachel)
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To: drewh
You need one of these to plant the Romney sign on:


32 posted on 10/09/2012 3:21:07 PM PDT by going hot (Happiness is a momma deuce)
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To: going hot

I don’t know if you should start freaking out. 1) Emails revealed AGW/IPCC leftist scam. 2) Obama gets trounced in 2010 elections. 3) Economy is flatter than a pancake under the FOREIGNERS leftist policies. 4) THE FOREIGNER has been skating on thin ice for the last four years held up by the MSM by his suspenders. 5) His regime (socialism/communism) has been exposed to the american people and is collasping faster than WITHHOLDER can delete his Fast & Furious emails to Obama.
I don’t know. If your going to FREAK, I would say the time is about right now.


33 posted on 10/09/2012 3:40:01 PM PDT by spawn44 (MOO)
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To: CMailBag

34 posted on 10/09/2012 3:44:12 PM PDT by Doogle ((USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated))
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To: drewh

You mean they have not started all ready; how about 4 years ago....


35 posted on 10/09/2012 3:48:20 PM PDT by BillT (If you can not stand behind our military, you might as well stand in front of them!)
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To: drewh

They should start booking their one way passage to Bum-Luck-A-Stan where they will feel at home.


36 posted on 10/09/2012 3:49:17 PM PDT by Iron Munro (Obamaspeak: An army of pompous phrases marching across the landscape in search of an idea.)
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To: OrangeHoof

There are “be on the winning side” voters. Momentum is important. Big enthusiasm gap. Obama supporters are the exact demographic hit worst by his policies.

Polls are still early but the shift is amazing. Women in particular moved 11 points! Historic numbers.


37 posted on 10/09/2012 4:00:04 PM PDT by TigerClaws
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To: drewh

you know, after years of hearing about chrissy,it’s a wonder no one’s made a exploding head gif of him..


38 posted on 10/09/2012 4:01:13 PM PDT by Doogle ((USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated))
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To: drewh

Avoid the rush. Freak out now!


39 posted on 10/09/2012 4:04:57 PM PDT by TigersEye (dishonorabledisclosure.com - OPSEC (give them support))
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To: drewh

40 posted on 10/09/2012 4:06:47 PM PDT by erod (This Chicagoan will crawl over broken glass to vote the fake Chicagoan Obama out!)
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To: erod

Leave OBAMA ALONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!/sarc


41 posted on 10/09/2012 4:08:39 PM PDT by erod (This Chicagoan will crawl over broken glass to vote the fake Chicagoan Obama out!)
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To: drewh

It’s time for them to grow up and vote Romney.


42 posted on 10/09/2012 4:23:09 PM PDT by factmart
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To: drewh

that’s hilarious


43 posted on 10/09/2012 4:30:59 PM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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To: drewh
Democrat campaign strategists
Democrat Campaign Statagist

44 posted on 10/09/2012 4:35:16 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: MNJohnnie

Regarding your photo: I didn’t realize that Jay carney had been in ROTC.


45 posted on 10/09/2012 4:41:43 PM PDT by GreenHornet
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To: MNJohnnie

Regarding your photo: I didn’t realize that Jay Carney had been in ROTC.


46 posted on 10/09/2012 4:42:13 PM PDT by GreenHornet
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To: OrangeHoof

Even among the 47% THERE ARE MANY WHO believe they pay taxes. They still hate people who are overt takers like the Obama phone lady.


47 posted on 10/09/2012 4:47:37 PM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: drewh

“New York Times polling guru Nate Silver..”

Calling that babbling nitwit Silver a guru is equivalent to praising Hitler for his defense of Berlin.


48 posted on 10/09/2012 4:47:50 PM PDT by sergeantdave (The FBI has declared war on the Marine Corps)
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To: drewh


"Oh no! Its the big one! You hear that Elizabeth, I'm a comin' to join you, honey...Romney's leading in the polls! Oh no...."
49 posted on 10/09/2012 4:50:28 PM PDT by Emperor Palpatine ("On the ascent of Olympus, what's a botched bar or two?" -Artur Schnabel)
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To: PGR88

something I cannot unsee!! lol


50 posted on 10/09/2012 4:55:09 PM PDT by drewh
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