What they need to do is figure out how many Democrats and how many Republicans there is in America and go from there. They can do the same thing with the states. It is not a good idea to use 2008 samples or 2010 samples either. 2008 was heavily Democrats and 2010 was heavily Republican and Democrats did not show up. Democrats are showing up in 2012 for sure but by what percentage is a mystery that the pollsters are going to have to figure it out and get it together.
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I think it will be close to the 2004 election when it was pretty much a even split. Of course, that's just my educated guess.
However, it seems all the pollsters are just guessing too.
The Democrats have been running a vigorous, if suspect, voter registration drive, registering pets as well as illegal aliens. In WA State, they made it possible to register to vote through Facebook. I forget what they were doing in Florida, but I do remember hearing that they were even registering people’s dogs. I got an email from Move-On, claiming that the Democrats had succeeded in getting back their lead over Republicans in registered voters.
I think we will see a +3 to +5 Republican turnout for the 2012 election. The question is how widespread the Democrat vote fraud will be and if it will be enough to overcome the Romney victory. Rat vote fraud will be widespread especially in FL, OH, NV, CO, WI, MO, PA, MI, MO and VA and will occur in every state— the unanswered question is to what extent they have the nerve to take it.
Btw, I believe this is the reason the Obama campaign has put massive pressure on pollsters to use ridiculous turnout models favoring Rats to an extent that will not happen in an hones election.