Posted on 10/18/2012 2:38:13 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Even more encouraging than the new Gallup numbers, I think, and circumstantial evidence that maybe Major Garrett was right yesterday about Team O preparing to pull back from some swing states. The catch with Gallup's tracker is that it's the only national pollster showing anything close to a seven-point lead right now; doesn't mean they're wrong, but allegedly even GOP pollsters aren't picking up a lead like that in their internal numbers. To get a better sense of Romney's surge, says election guru Sean Trende, follow the (campaign) money: "Simply put, if Romney were up 7, he'd be advertising in PA, MI, OR, CT and wouldn't spend a dime in FL."
Let's follow the money, then. Don't look now, but according to the AP, Team Mitt's thinking of advertising in PA and MI:
At the same time, the GOP presidential nominee’s advisers and the Republican National Committee are looking to give Romney more routes to reaching the 270 Electoral College votes needed for victory. They are weighing whether to shift resources from North Carolina, where Republicans express confidence of winning, into states long considered safe territory for President Barack Obama, including Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The evolving strategy comes as both candidates work to capitalize on their second debate-stage meeting, a Tuesday night face off in which Romney emphasized his bipartisan credentials as well as his efforts to hire women while Massachusetts governor, and declared, “I’m not looking to cut taxes for wealthy people.”
CNN is reporting just as I’m writing this that Team Mitt is indeed moving some (but not all) of its assets out of NC. RCP moved North Carolina from toss-up to “leans Republican” today, which put Romney ahead in the projected electoral vote count for the first time in the campaign. Mitt 206, Obama 201, with 29 EVs from Florida still in the toss-up column but hopefully ready to move soon. If that state starts to lean too, Romney will have 235 somewhat bankable votes with nine true toss-up states left to deliver him the remaining 35. The likeliest path is Ohio plus Virginia plus any other state, but if he really is playing to win in Michigan and Pennsylvania and not just forcing Obama to spend money there to defend those states, he could get 36 EVs just between those two. I’ve always thought Romney could win those states only as gravy, if a big red wave washes over the map and carries all of the more competitive swing states with it first, but who knows what GOP pollsters are seeing in their numbers right now. Romney’s debate demolition of Obama was a true game-changer; only people with deep data know what the game really looks like at this point.
A Republican source tells Jim Geraghty that he is indeed seeing signs of Team O retreating from North Carolina but not from Florida — or at least not yet. The margin there’s still too close, and there are too many EVs at stake, to pull back before the last debate. But if Romney’s poll surge continues, it’ll be time for hard decisions by Team Hopenchange next week. Their dilemma: Is it worth abandoning a big state that they really don’t need to win in order to allocate resources more efficiently, or would conceding Florida be too damaging spin-wise and depressing to their base to risk it? Binder jokes can keep liberals running on fumes until the next debate, but if Florida starts to wobble, the tone next week will shift. A lot.
Here’s Soledad O’Brien broadcasting from another dimension where Obama leads Romney by 15 points in Virginia. Oh — forgot to mention: Obama’s job approval is four points underwater nationally. According to … the Daily Kos’s pollster.
That must have shot her grocery money for the month. ;-)
I’m near raleigh and all I see are romney signs and at state fair today all i saw were republican stickers and almost no one at democrat booth except a couple obama phone ladies
Early voting started today in NC. Information from NC may be skewed until mid next week due to Wake County Election Board (Raleigh) opening early voting locations favorable mostly to Dems until next week. If voters can’t get downtown by 5, they have 4 other choices-—2 in predominantly African American neighborhoods and 2 in liberal Cary. Locations in more mixed or conservative areas don’t open until next week. Did not stop me though, but others I know are waiting to vote next week.
Did I read that right?
Shift half.
Yes. I had to drive 45 minutes to Cary to vote. I complained to election board and they “had no idea” why these locations were chosen to open today and others not until next week. Told “maybe budget”. I asked why the first 4 locations were not more reasonably located...no answer.
Thanks cripplecreek.
I don’t don’t approve of saturation ads, where there are six Romney commercials in the same half-hour TV show, but I would like to see every major channel carry at least one Prime Time Romney ad each day in all of the swing states plus the weaker Obama states. That would include contesting MI, CT*, PA*, and perhaps even OR, along with the obvious: VA*, FL*, OH*, NH, MO*, IA, WI*, CO, and NV - where the * indicates a close Senate race where positive ads may help with coattails. I’d like to see a weakening Obama try to protect those twelve states all at once. It is now all about the ground game and turnout, and a broad footprint would help with both.
“NC is in the Romney bag now?”
If you go by the yard sign battle, Romney is going to win handily. I’ve been keeping a mental tab and in my area, it is at least an 8-1 Romney advantage.
” it’s the only national pollster showing anything close to a seven-point lead right now”
And THAT ladies and gentleman, is why the MSM is ignoring the latest PPP poll (showing Romney up 5 points) so they make statements such as the above.
I actually said it about 4or 5 months ago. I need to find my post where I said it! I knew it because alot of the dems, many that I know that were part of the political machine for years, hate Obama. They liked Hillary but voted for 0zero. Bitter clingers, ya know!
Believe it :-) I'm in PA... the difference between this election and 2008 is incredible. I also have talked to many previous Obama voters. They aren't just disappointed in Obama's last 4 years, they feel ANGRY and BETRAYED by him. They believed his "Hope" and "Unifying" crap and his promises, but now they feel totally manipulated by him and deceived into voting for him. It's amazing...
In the biggest Dem election since 1964, NC went 50-49 Obama in 2008. Here is how NC voted in the past 4 presidential elections. The numbers in partnthesis are the national percentages for comparison.
Year GOP Dem
2008 49% (46%) 50% (53%)
2004 56% (51%) 44% (48%)
2000 56% (48%) 43% (48%)
1996 49% (41%) 44% (49%)
In every single election NC voted GOP by significantly higher percentages than the country: by 3%, 5%, 8% and 8%. And of course it voted coreespondingly less for Democrats: by 3%, 4%, 5% and 5%.
So for NC to have been in any way a battleground would have to mean Romney was in for a drubbing. If a state that consistently more GOP than the electorate was in doubt....well, what the hell? How could Romney possibly have a prayer in such a scenario.
My prediction is Rommney beats Filth 53% to 46% in NC.
Hank
That makes it a bigger question. What were they thinking? Did they think holding their convention there would swing it?
Blueish? Did they change their sects?
That will depend on the last time they filled up the boiler.
Went on DU (those people are such scum) - and they are so deluded over this. They are all insisting Romneys leaving because he knows he’s going to lose NC....hahahaha! Right.
The sad part is they are so close minded about the possibility that people hate their messiah, they’ve pretty much created a bubble around themselves. I’ve seen people who simply say “I don’t know if we will win NC...” be cursed at and have their comments hidden.
They’ve lost it over there...lol
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