Posted on 10/18/2012 4:14:56 PM PDT by Snuph
A new poll shows Republican Mitt Romney leading in Pennsylvania, a state that Republicans had all but written off just weeks ago but which is now listed as a toss up by the Real Clear Politics website.
Susquehanna Polling and Research provided The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama.
It's the first poll to show Romney leading among likely voters in the Keystone State.
"The polling is very clear that the race is certainly up for grabs and Republicans have a tendency to never believe it," Susquehanna President James Lee told The Examiner.
Romney isn't spending much time or money in Pennsylvania, which hasn't backed a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.
Every other Pennsylvania poll shows Obama ahead, though by a narrowing margin. A Quinnipiac University poll taken around the same time as the Susquehanna poll shows Obama leading Romney 50 percent to 46 percent.
Susquehanna's automated poll or 1,376 likely voters was taken between Oct. 11 and 13, before the second presidential debate Tuesday that many saw as a comeback for Obama since his Oct. 3 showdown with Romney.
Lee said Romney has made significant gains in the all-important suburbs of Philadelphia, a ring of counties that helped push Obama to victory in 2008.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
The Gipper carried Massachusetts in 1980 by around 4,000 votes. That was the one state that voted for McGovern in 1972. Nobody thought Reagan could do that. You might be on to something when you say Romney might carry NJ. If Romney begins “carpet bombing” Pa with ads, it’s going to have a big effect in NJ, too, because the ads will reach into most of NJ.
If we win PA, Game over. :)
This is not a complete demographic but is an observation based on living in some of these areas of PA. Central Pennsylvania is predominately pa dutch German/protestant/Mennonite, and conservative Catholics that vote republican. the Philadelphia city is predominately non church going white wannabees, catholic and black evangelical with liberal protestant that all vote dem. except for me i vote repub. and a northeast Philly republican showing. Philly suburbs and Scranton areas are predominately Italian and other ethnic catholic conservative that vote republican with the more affluent areas where they vote dem (some pubbies). I was surprised by a recent yard sign for Romney on the immigrant baptist Ukrainian yard whose preacher tells them to vote Democrat. not sure about Pittsburgh but they vote Dem. My old boss said that Central PA is the Buckle of the Bible belt.
This election will be over by 9:30 p.m. EST.
My grandmother’s family was from Central Pa. The women were very religious, but the men, not so much. They were English, German heritage, but the families had been here since before the revolutionary war.
You forgot the mention the Polish people. There were lots of polish people, who worked the mines and the steel mills - almost all Catholic. The ethnic groups that I was most familiar with were the Polish and the Italian.
Do they still have coal mines in PA? Those folks better vote for Romney or they face the very real possibility of not having a job in the next few years if O wins again.
Welcome to FR. I hope you are right.
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