Posted on 10/18/2012 4:14:56 PM PDT by Snuph
A new poll shows Republican Mitt Romney leading in Pennsylvania, a state that Republicans had all but written off just weeks ago but which is now listed as a toss up by the Real Clear Politics website.
Susquehanna Polling and Research provided The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama.
It's the first poll to show Romney leading among likely voters in the Keystone State.
"The polling is very clear that the race is certainly up for grabs and Republicans have a tendency to never believe it," Susquehanna President James Lee told The Examiner.
Romney isn't spending much time or money in Pennsylvania, which hasn't backed a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.
Every other Pennsylvania poll shows Obama ahead, though by a narrowing margin. A Quinnipiac University poll taken around the same time as the Susquehanna poll shows Obama leading Romney 50 percent to 46 percent.
Susquehanna's automated poll or 1,376 likely voters was taken between Oct. 11 and 13, before the second presidential debate Tuesday that many saw as a comeback for Obama since his Oct. 3 showdown with Romney.
Lee said Romney has made significant gains in the all-important suburbs of Philadelphia, a ring of counties that helped push Obama to victory in 2008.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
However, the "swing voters" in PA are out in the suburbs and I think Romney has a real opportunity with them. In 2008, the suburbs went heavily for Obama, mostly out of white guilt and buying into all the empty slogans of "hope and change" that Obama and the Democrats promised us.
To use Joe Biden's words, this suburban middle class has been hammered for the past four years and will probably get taxed into oblivion with a second Obama term. The suburbs of PA, along with the coal miners, could turn PA red this year.
“Lee said Romney has made significant gains in the all-important suburbs of Philadelphia, a ring of counties that helped push Obama to victory in 2008.”
From what I’ve read from various PA-based Freepers, that is the critical area to winning the state. Philly proper being deep blue, and most of the rest of the state being reddish.
I’m not holding my breath, but it would be nice if Romney could take PA on election night. That would be a huge blow to Obama’s EV calculus.
A Republican Governor was elected again in Pennsylvania.
The rural areas are not for Obama.
My understanding is Philly tends to have more votes cast than citizens since about 1992 in Presidential elections.
I`m wondering if Romney has enough $$$ in the kitty to launch an offensive in PA. That would put Boy Zer0 back on his heels, having to defend territory he thought he had in the bag.
It would be great if PA isn`t just throwing a tease.
And tomorrow NBC/Marist will come out with a poll showing Obama with a 22 point lead in PA.
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Obviously, campaign dollars are scarce or more ads would be running in Pa. Bush lost by 51-49 in 04 without trying very hard. There is reason to believe Romney will take a higher share of the Philly vote than Bush did, may win or come close to winning the Philly suburbs, given higher enthusiasm Romney will clean up in rural Pa even more than Bush did, and should carry coal country with a higher share of the vote than Bush did. So why can’t he win Pa?
Romney will win Pa with just a little effort. If he wins Pa, he will also have won Ohio, so maybe he does not need Pa, but it would be sweet to prove otherwise to those who say it can’t be done and to humble Jackasses.
Read the they may withdrawn $$ from NC with the positive polls and direct more to PA and Michigan. Their internal must be telling them something we can only hope for.
Someone once said that PA is Philly in the east and Pittsburgh in the west and Alabama in between.
James Carville I believe.
I wouldn’t agree with that at all. PA is nothing like Alabama. PA, outside of the suburbs might be very blue collar, but much of those blue collar workers are Catholic, Catholic union members, whose jobs were in coal and steel.
So, you combine Obama’s war on the Catholic Church (which he actually started with the hospitals in Scranton, PA), Obama’s war on coal and the demise of the US steel industry and things don’t look so good for Obama.
These really are the people that Romney was talking about, who cling to their God and guns.
True of Philly, which under state law, is classified as a '1st class city' that runs its own elections, Pittsburgh is a little different. It is classified as a '2nd Class City' and is just one of 129 different municipalities inside Allegheny County. The County, which is much more closely split between Rs and Ds, runs the elections department, so blatant voter fraud is much more difficult in Pittsburgh.
In Philly, the Democrats own everything and can do what they want. Ain't so in Allegheny County. Yes, it's still majority Dem, but that majority are still basically socially conservative Dems who Obama seems to be running away from by trying to appeal to his big money base. Even in the two big congressional races here, you would be hard pressed to tell an R or D from their campaign ads. They are all "for gun rights and opposed to abortion." That's the way it is here.
Don't at all be surprised to see Romney win PA with a comfortable margin.
OH: O 49% R 48%...
MI: O 44% R 41%...
WI: R 49% O 48%...
I am going to make a really bold prediction here. I think Romney wins not only Pennsylvania but New Jersey as well.
While some Southern and Western Republicans think that Chris Christie is a RINO they need to look at the state he governs. He has drug NJ kicking and screaming back from the brink of bankruptcy and has a lot of support in the state.He has actually created a lot of support for Republican positions in what was a deep blue state. However, the demonrats are not paying attention to NJ because they think it is in the bag. Therefore they won’t have the voter fraud battalions organized there.
I think New Jersey goes Republican this year though not by much.
If both Pennsylvania and NJ break for Romney the Obamanation of Desolation has no chance
Somewhere...way down in Peru...Hillary is smiling.
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