Posted on 10/19/2012 6:36:12 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.
These updates are based upon nightly polling and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, roughly one-third of the interviews for today’s update were completed before Tuesday night’s presidential debate. In the two nights of polling conducted since the debate, Romney has a slight advantage. Tomorrow morning (Saturday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after the second debate.
A president’s prospects for reelection are closely tied to his job approval ratings. Those who Strongly Approve or Strongly Disapprove vote for or against the incumbent almost regardless of who is challenging him.
It is interesting, though, to look at those whose feelings about the president are less firm. Among those who Somewhat Approve of Obama’s performance, eight percent (8%) favor Romney. When George W. Bush ran for reelection in 2004, his opponent, Senator John Kerry, got 15% support from those who Somewhat Approved of Bush's record.
Among those who Somewhat Disapprove of Obama’s performance, Romney gets just 68% of the vote. Kerry got 80% support from those who Somewhat Disapproved of Bush. This may suggest that some who are disappointed by Obama’s performance remain unconvinced that the Republican challenger would do any better.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Tomorrow, the entire sample will be post Debate Two. However, it will include Friday's sample, which some consider to be unfriendly for Republicans
Crosstabs?
Not to be a conspirator. But I’m starting to think the lib media’s working the ref routine with Rasmussen is at play here (e.g. Chuck Todd calling Rasmussen ‘slop’).
By keeping it close, Ras sticks it in their face as they now have to hang their hat on their most hated pollster, and they look like fools and hypocrites.
Bottomline, Obama cannot get to 50% in any LV poll, and is at -14 today, not a good number.
A couple weeks back we’d have taken a tie in a heartbeat. I still say if Romney is within 1-2 on election day he wins based on enthusiasm and GOTV efforts.
But it says Romney has an advantage in polling since the debate. I’m guessing a very good day fell off, but that Romney still has an advantage in polling after a debate Obama “won” is very good news.
I keep hearing Ras using a +5 D model? Will he change it in the next week?
Also, President Obama is -14% today
We`re going to run into this between now and election day. w:atls happening is some American voters are faced with the choice between economic prosperity and 0bama. They`ve been emotionally bonded to 0bama for a ling time now, and quitting him is extremely difficult.
POST Debate 2 data from Rasmussen:
Romney hits 50% in VA
w:atls= what`s
ling=long
Proofing is my friend. So`s coffee.
Couple of things re: crosstabs.
Romney was +9 with indies. And today is only +1 (47-46). That is a big falloff in one day.
And gender: Romney was +10 w Men yesterday and -4 w Women for a +6 gender gap lead. Today he’s +6 w Men (-4) and -6 w Women (-2) for a E gender gap.
Either a great Romney day fell off or a great Obama day was added.
We hear D+5 and we hear D+3. The source for D+3, a Freeper claiming to be a Rasmussen subcriber, would seem to me to be the more reliable.
So I'm betting Raz is using D+3. The turnout is going to be D+0 (IMHO)) so I'm still feeling good. Although I felt better yesterday.
And yes, I'm also betting that Rasmussen's model will drift at least closer to D+0 in the next 2 weeks as he digests the ground truth data from the Swing States (absentee ballot requests etc.)
sounds like an outlier poll day to me.
And we are surprised because? Watch Gallup magically close up by next Monday.
Obama has no chance here in Louisiana. We believe in freedom here in the south.
I think Ras has had each candidate +- 2 points for months now. At this point, really need to focus on state polls. The field is narrowing, and literally comes down to 4-5 states.
I suspect Gallop will show a closer race today. Don’t think RR (or anybody) can maintain a 7 point lead the next 3 weeks.
Again, focus on the state polls
This makes no sense. Gallup has Romney up 7 and Ras has it tied? Two extremes. The momentum has clearly been with Romney and Ras never, IMO, really indicated that and even that Romney won the first debate so profoundly.
They are trying to fake a bounce for the Muslim communist Obama.
Another thing. The Right Track Wrong Track (I like to follow).
Blacks (84/4) and Whites (30/60) have always stayed constant. But the “other” (Asians, Hispanics) is more volatile.
Yesterday the “Other” had RT/WT as 31/59 (-28) - which fell in with sentiment of whites.
Today it is 37/50 (-13). A 25 point jump. I have never seen a huge jump like that. And unemployment claims were up to highest level in weeks. Odd! Rasmussen’s data is very inconsistent.
Agree. What we have here is a majority of voters that still WANT to like Obama. It is extremely difficult to defeat someone when a majority of the population feels an emotional attachment and WANTS to find reasons to still like them. Obama is an American Idol, RealityTV president and sadly that is precisely what an awful lot of our population identify with. Romney is keeping it closer than the media and Obama administration ever thought possible by his excellent debate performances, so at least he has a chance to break through the Obama fog and win this thing.
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