Posted on 10/19/2012 6:36:12 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.
These updates are based upon nightly polling and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, roughly one-third of the interviews for today’s update were completed before Tuesday night’s presidential debate. In the two nights of polling conducted since the debate, Romney has a slight advantage. Tomorrow morning (Saturday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after the second debate.
A president’s prospects for reelection are closely tied to his job approval ratings. Those who Strongly Approve or Strongly Disapprove vote for or against the incumbent almost regardless of who is challenging him.
It is interesting, though, to look at those whose feelings about the president are less firm. Among those who Somewhat Approve of Obama’s performance, eight percent (8%) favor Romney. When George W. Bush ran for reelection in 2004, his opponent, Senator John Kerry, got 15% support from those who Somewhat Approved of Bush's record.
Among those who Somewhat Disapprove of Obama’s performance, Romney gets just 68% of the vote. Kerry got 80% support from those who Somewhat Disapproved of Bush. This may suggest that some who are disappointed by Obama’s performance remain unconvinced that the Republican challenger would do any better.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
We all know it’s going to be close. The Gallup with Romney +7 is surely a highwater mark buoyed by Republican enthusiasm about Mitt hammering home the economic message in both debates. Rasmussen has nothing to lose by weighting things favorably for Obama and keeping it close down the stretch as it improves his chances of being seen as an accurate pollster in the end. His rep with Repubs is already secure and surely makes Dems sick that they have to look to Rass for good news.
There aren't any there. I seriously doubt if there are even active campaign offices (as opposed to fundraising) in those states, and I'd doubt if there has been a single Romney ad in any of those states.
I know. I was stunned listening to that guy on Greta. It was eye opening.
He’s like, I think Romney is great with numbers and would get the economy back on track... But I love Obamacare, Planned Parenthood, etc. My head about blew up.
I wish Greta said you can’t have it both ways.
I’m in Louisiana and the only time I’ve seen any campaign commercials are those national Obama ads that air occassionally on ESPN.
I don’t know. Scott Rasmussen seems like a very straight ahead guy in interviews that he gives, and has no interest in getting this wrong. His reputation has ascended to the pinnacle of the polling business, where even MSM outlets (who once trashed him) quote his daily tracking polls. And his personal wealth has likely grown tremendously, too, due to his great reputation. Like any normal person, he wants to protect and perpetuate that wealth. As we always have, we need to look at his polling as much more often correct than incorrect. That’s what the record has shown. All that said, he shows Obama stuck at 47-48% and at -14. A bad place for an incumbent. Stay positive.
The buzz on Twitter is that the reason for tie is a huge polling day for Obama on Tuesday (pre debate) and when it falls off tomorrow, Romney will be back in lead by 2. Take it for what it’s worth.
No I don’t know all the states those are just some that I listed as an example of many others.It was a general statement. More accurate then move most resources to toss up states like Ohio etc..
We in the South have it won for Romney here. what’s wrong with other areas like the midwest? We in the South believe in freedom.
Thanks for that input.
So it’s confirmed: D+3 for Raz.
Way too much bad info floating around Freeperville these days so your input was important.
You might comment on the idea that the GOP polls worse on weekends compared to weekdays. I’ve never bought that idea but I’ve really never checked.
What do you think?
I met him once and he was a low key, normal guy, which struck me at the time because, at least in my political junkie nerd world, he is a big time celebrity. The Dems have historically claimed that Rass loses his Republican bias down the stretch to ensure a more accurate final prediction. Rass has nothing to gain by giving Mitt an excessive lead at this point since the chances of this race ultimately being decided by more than a couple percentage points are very low.
I am confused. How do they 106%? 39+36+31=106
Or it COULD be, just throwing it out there....that 68% of the people who disapprove of Obamer is in millions more than 80% of those who disapproved of Dubya was waaaaay less.
Liberalism is a religion.
“This makes no sense. Gallup has Romney up 7 and Ras has it tied? Two extremes.”
And two recent polls were more in line with Gallup, the UPI and PPP polls. I’m beginning to think Ras is just keeping the numbers close intentionally just to play it safe and show a close race.
I don’t buy the theory of weekend polling helps Obama, especially with Rasmussen where he has a set sample.
I think other polls, where they wing it and whatever comes in they go with, (i.e. Pew will have a D+9 sample one month and a R+1 sample the next month), it may be the case.
In those cases they will get more Dems answering phone if they poll just on weekends, and that is what they’ll use as sample. So yes, a weekend poll would help Obama in those cases where their sample is whomever answered phone.
But with Gallup and Ras, who have built in samples for weighing, I’m not so sure.
Although some trends show Obama’s best days to be on Mondays (following Fri-Sun polling). So there could be more room for tricks on weekends (e.g. Dems claiming to be Repubs). But I’m no expert.
There was a different poll that tweeted out last night basically their poll will have better Romney news for Ohio today. Don’t recall which one, but they were responding to the Marist poll.
There was a different poll that tweeted out last night basically their poll will have better Romney news for Ohio today. Don’t recall which one, but they were responding to the Marist poll.
Ah, there it is: 4 percent more women were surveyed than men. The 2010 demographics have it at 1.6 percent more women than men in the United States:
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk
Cheers!
Actually, it’s that Obama is WAY more polarizing. More people outright fully disapprove of Obama - not this “somewhat” crap.
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