RCP No Toss-up Map, 10/22/12

Real Clear Politics ^ | 10/22/12

[adingdangdoo]

While Romney still leads 206-201 on the RCP Electoral Count Map, the "No Toss-up" map still projects a narrow 277-261 victory for the President.

[adingdangdoo]

While Romney still leads 206-201 on the RCP Electoral Count Map, the "No Toss-up" map still projects a narrow 277-261 victory for the President.

The key states that RCP still projects for the President include, in electoral vote order:
Pennsylvania (20)
Ohio (18)
Wisconsin (10)
Nevada (6)
Iowa (6)

Moving any of the first three states (or both Iowa and Nevada) gives Romney the advantage. Moving all of them to Romney would give a 321-217 margin. Add in Michigan and we get to the 337-201 margin mentioned last week.

[rwfromkansas]

His polling has been polluted by oversampled Dem polls, particularly that awful TIPP poll they keep posting. That has been an issue.

[SoftwareEngineer]

As of today, you can take WI off that list. Rasmussen has released a poll today that has Gov Tommy Thompson ahead of his Democrat rival

The margin of error would still make it a “toss-up” but if you are calling states on “no toss up” then put WI in the R column

Also, Rasmussen is about to release an Iowa poll where both the President and the Governor are tied.

His Colorado poll shows the Governor 4 points ahead.

[FlipWilson]

“Operation demoralize/dirty trick” is all they have and they are going to kick it into high gear in the last two weeks.

[kidd]

One of the four Maine districts is solid Romney. Maine’s 4 electoral votes are NOT winner-take-all.

Meaning if either NV or IA switch, it’s a tie and the House elects Romney to break the tie.

If PA/OH/MI/WI go Romney, it’s a clear win for America.

[erod]

the "No Toss-up" map still projects a narrow 277-261 victory for the President.

B.S.!!! The LSM is still trying to create a narrative for a slim presidential victory for Obama with their skewed polls before they were pushing an inevitability meme. Just week Friends, in one week, or two days before the election Romney will be up in the electoral college as the favorite to win this thing

[GonzoGOP]

The big news is that he only has to flip one of Ohio, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. PA is a long shot. However I think he has a real chance in either Ohio or Wisconsin. It is always good to have multiple paths to victory. At this point Obama needs to run the table of the remaining tossups.

[erod]

week=wait I typed that B.C., Before Coffee.

[WalterSkinner]

..the WalterSkinner map: 301 to 321 for Romney/Ryan—if all goes well tonight it’s over folks...

[sportutegrl]

When the dust has settled and all of the states are called, the Dems plan to ‘contest’ one state to win. They have been hinting that that state will be Ohio. Romney needs to win without OH, because they can’t convincingly contest more than one state.

[Mouton]

Move Wisconsin to Romney and it is 271 to 269, in other words, go by Ogumbo

[NewJerseyGOP]

“His polling has been polluted by oversampled Dem polls, particularly that awful TIPP poll they keep posting. That has been an issue.”

---

We still have a lot of work to do. Do not blow off the oversampling of Dems. Remember that we will be faced with people voting illegally, many of them multiple times. You have large numbers of 112 year olds registered to vote. You have household pets ready to vote. These will all be votes for the Dems. We are in good shape, but again, we have a lot of work left to do.

[adingdangdoo]

The other big news is that no one is talking about any of Romney’s “firewall” states; it’s the President who’s playing defense on the electoral map.

[ConservativeDude]

it does seem that the media is sort of holding out hope that somehow obama is going to somehow make a come back with a debate performance tonight.

i have to wonder: all the other polls going to start following the Gallup lead, shortly after this debate? It wouldn’t surprise me.

We shall see. But I do get the sense that everyone except the die hard obamabots know that it’s over, but they are going to go through the motions just as Bush did (92), and as did Dole and McCain.

[ConservativeDude]

obama is absolutely playing defense. Can he run out the clock?

That is what they are hoping.

Personally, I seriously doubt it.....

[adingdangdoo]

Ann Coulter had a column back in '04 about how the media was hyping the possibility of Mondale taking Texas(!!).

Then, when his loss became inevitable, they started griping about the ugliness of the campaign (As Ann said, "ugly" in the traditional definition of a campaign where the Democrats are losing).

[ScottfromNJ]

“His polling has been polluted by oversampled Dem polls, particularly that awful TIPP poll they keep posting. That has been an issue.”

Yep. UPI, PPP/KOS and I believe one other recent poll showing Romney up have been excluded. Don’t trust them.

[WalterSkinner]

..the only thing that would compare to the level of anger by conservatives across the country would be 1980. But I think it's worse than that. The mid-term elections were a harbinger. The Wisconsin recall was a harbinger.

What the Democrats and the MSM are doing now has moved over into "Baghdad Bob" territory...

[olrtex]

I agree that it is close, and Romney/Ryan could easily lose this thing.

However, for that to happen:

(1) Gallup would have to be very far off the mark;
(2) Rasmussen’s swing state poll would have to be pretty far off the mark;
(3) All the talk about anti-Obama voters being much more enthusiastic than pro-Obama voters would have to be wrong; and
(4) All the talk about independents strongly favoring Obama would likely have to be wrong.

All of those things could be true, and that’s a great reason to be worried. Still, I would rather have Romney’s hand than have Obama’s hand at this point.

[Heart of Georgia]

RCP's average is only as good as the polls they're averaging together, correct?

What's that saying about lies and statistics?