Early In Person Voting #s for Bellweather OH County (disaster for Ds)

OH early voting statistics | 10/24/2012 | LS

[LS]

Just had this reported to me by GOP activist for early voting in first four weeks in Montgomery County.

CONTEXT: Montgomery is D heavy, usually goes D by 4000-5000 votes. In general, OH went HEAVY for Obama in early voting last year. McCain actually won the "election day" vote, but lost in early voting.

Here we go:

Week 1: (2008) 3427 (2012) 680

Week 2: (2008) 1918 (2012) 275

Week 3: (2008) 1508 (2012) 469

Week 4: (2008) 3794 (2012) 800

TOTALS: (2008) 10,467 (2012) 2224

Not only are the early votes down almost 80% from 08, but a higher number of Rs are voting early (though not huge). Still, in 08 early voting was close to 95% D, so even these numbers don't represent all D voters.

If other counties are anywhere close to this, it's over.

[LS]

One anecdote, as well: county GOP officials got report of three busses headed to election HQ to vote and had their poll watchers, etc. all prepared.

Nobody showed up. A "handful" trickled in.

[SoftwareEngineer]

Great news!

[HannibalHamlinJr]

LS - continued thanks for being the webcam in Ohio :-)

[MrB]

I think the overwhelming vote loss for 0bama is going to be those who just don’t go vote this time that voted in ‘08.

[Ravi]

thanks for the update LS

[Gasshog]

blue helmets will report this as Republican vote suppression no doubt.

[abb]

First class citizen journalism on your part, LS. Kudos!

[cornfedcowboy]

Question:Is there a breakdown of voters by party affiliation?

[Cowman]

This is good news but I'm not a big fan of early voting — It makes it easier for the enemy to know how many additional votes to find or manufacture

[HamiltonJay]

I have never bought into Ohio is a neck and neck race.. I really don’t see how when PA is polling within margin of Error that Ohio is remotely going to go for Obama.

I believe Romney will not only win Ohio, but he’s going to win it by a very comfortable margin. 4 points or so.

I am not accusing Rasmussen or others of manipulating their polling, I just don’t think its remotely reflecting what’s going on, for whatever reason.

Just like I don’t believe for one minue Obama is polling at or above his 2008 levels in MN. I fully expect Obama to win MN, but the idea he’ll do it by the same margin or more as 2008? Nope, not buying that one.

[who knows what evil?]

McCain actually won the "election day" vote, but lost in early voting.

I wonder if any of the people that voted early for Obama in 2008 would have changed their minds by Election Day?

[far sider]

That’s very cool. (I didn’t know McCain won the ‘election day’ vote in Ohio.)

I thought about checking with our county elections board for early voting but then I remembered Scioto County went for McCain in 2008. :)

You made my day, LS.

Anything on Franklin and Cuyahoga Counties?

[simplesimon]

Thanks LS !

Keep up the amazing work ! It is getting a LOT of notice.

[KarlInOhio]

One anecdote, as well: county GOP officials got report of three busses headed to election HQ to vote and had their poll watchers, etc. all prepared.

Nobody showed up. A "handful" trickled in.

Was that after the Obama rally yesterday or was it another event?

[Docbarleypop]

Obama will have the most votes in MN, the fraud will be rampant and our State Attorney Ritchie will be supporting them all the way, I am sure he will do his due diligence and vote twice in each precinct.

[Cosevative2theCore]

I think you got the wrong info somewhere because I saw on the news that Early voting in Dayton (Montgomery County) is up from 2008
also the suburbs surrounding Dayton are heavily conservative so early voting helps us too in that county maybe even more than it does Dumbocrats People I know have already voted and voted for Romney and I mean lots. The MSM is lying about Obama’s lead in early voting. Republicans are scared shitless of another 4 years of Marxist Socialism in this state and making damn sure they vote him out.
I predict Romney in landslide in the Buckeye State

http://www.wdtn.com/dpp/news/local/montgomery/early-voting-up-in-montgomery-county#.UIf2cMXA-Yg

[Sloth]

Just for the sake of being an insufferable pedant, the word is ‘bellwether’, not ‘bellweather.’

[LS]

Gotta read closely because I said "early voting" meaning "early in person" vs. absentees: it says:

"Deputy Director Steve Harsman said they have already processed over 50-thousand absentee voters, 6-thousand of them in person."

We have already provided the details on ABSENTEES

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

He notes that "six thousand have voted [early] in person and I updated those numbers to 10,400.

For review: in 08, Ds requested 33,212 absentees and Rs 11,386 (a 22,000 net advantage for Ds) for a 28.5% lead---just in ABSENTEES.

In 2012, so far, Ds requested 20,535 (a drop of 13,000) and Rs requested 14,620, a GAIN of 3,300 for differential of 5,000 votes or 11.% That's a 17-point loss for the dems.

[Cosevative2theCore]

Thanks for clarifying I can’t wait only 2 weeks left for Obummer then he’s a lame duck til President Romney’s inauguration

[LS]

Just looked at our absentees again: Ds down 22k there, 8k in early voting for a net drop of 30k in a single county.