The sense I get is that the D’s always win the early vote.
In 2008 they were up by something like 30%
But this year it’s more like 10%
So - yeah - they’re winning the early vote, but they’re damned by how little they’re winning it by.
They are also assuming all democrats will vote to reelect Obama
This is an 80% decline in early (mostly D) vote. Massive dropoff.
Obama had 9,000 people at a rally and they had 27 Greyhound busses to take them to register and vote at election HQ. After the 3d bus arrived empty, they gave up. They expected THOUSANDS and got 300.
Dems were up in early voting in 2010, and we all know how that panned out for them. Heck, I was worried because I went to the other side and saw very convincing arguments with calculations that based upon the early voting, it appeared the polls were wrong with a GOP win.
Well, the polls were even less than the actual outcome DESPITE the Dem early voting lead.
It really doesn’t mean much, but the margin of it does....and we are cutting into it!