Posted on 10/24/2012 4:14:38 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
This is a good article & summary, posted TODAY, for people:
1. Freaking Out about Ohio polls that are slow to move ...
2. Summary of Ras, SurveyUSA, Gravis & Soffolk latest OH polls...
3. Explanation of why OHIO is not as easy to unskew
4. If the election were held today, RR wins.
to comply with excerpt rules: unskewedpolls.com examiner.com
(Excerpt) Read more at examiner.com ...
Actually it’s at examiner, not unskewedpolls ...
O’Bummer is sooooo skewed! ;)
I know I’ve seen some great break downs of early voting on Free Republic, and it makes me very confident.
Are the Democratic mouthpieces and liberal blogs just lying when they state Obama is destroying Romney in the early vote???
I have a family member who has come from Cali.fornia to this state (OH) to specifically work for the zero campaign, will be here through 11/7.
Her fi.ance is an attorney and he is coming to poll watch.
We need to PRAY that Satan will not prevail in this election.
The sense I get is that the D’s always win the early vote.
In 2008 they were up by something like 30%
But this year it’s more like 10%
So - yeah - they’re winning the early vote, but they’re damned by how little they’re winning it by.
They are also assuming all democrats will vote to reelect Obama
This is an 80% decline in early (mostly D) vote. Massive dropoff.
Obama had 9,000 people at a rally and they had 27 Greyhound busses to take them to register and vote at election HQ. After the 3d bus arrived empty, they gave up. They expected THOUSANDS and got 300.
Dems were up in early voting in 2010, and we all know how that panned out for them. Heck, I was worried because I went to the other side and saw very convincing arguments with calculations that based upon the early voting, it appeared the polls were wrong with a GOP win.
Well, the polls were even less than the actual outcome DESPITE the Dem early voting lead.
It really doesn’t mean much, but the margin of it does....and we are cutting into it!
That 9,000 people rally was in Fairfax, VA on Friday, October 19th?
LS, I’m sorry to drive you crazy on this issue...
But on Oct 15th “Steve Harsman, deputy director of the Montgomery County Board of Elections, said Monday that since absentee voting began Oct. 2, his office has seen more than 6,000 people cast in-person ballots, with another 12,000-plus submitting mail ballots the highest first-two-weeks turnout the county has ever seen. On top of those 18,000, another 32,000 requested mail ballots but have yet to return them.”
...so my question, as of Oct 15th, he said “6,000 people cast in-person ballots”...so I’m confused as to why your source says it’s 2,200 and not 6,000 (as of Oct 15th)?
2) other than that, either way---6,000 or 10,000 it's a massive drop off for Ds of 40-80%.
And among the Ds, I wonder how many are voting, as many of the Dems I know, for Mitt?
I think this poses more of a problem for Obama than just the drop in total numbers.
No, 9000 Obama voters in Dayton, OH a couple of nights ago
Isn’t the comparison supposed to be 6,000 (as of Oct 15, 2012) to 10,400 (in 2008)?, and not 2,200 to 10,400?
Depends on the 2008 date. Apples to apples. But WTF? If Obama is “only” down 40% it’s a crushing defeat.
Not trying to be argumentative, just saying that those numbers (6,000 ‘in-persons’) were from the deputy director of the Montgomery County Board of Elections as of Oct 15th, and that the gap may be a lot less now. Is there any way to get the most recent info on ‘in-person’ numbers from the county itself?
I am trying to wrap my head around just what kind of loser goes to an Obama rally. Isn't already registered to vote. Gets on A BUS loaded with other Obama losers to be taken to go register.
Pathetic.
Beeson Ohio memo notes 55% of early vote has come from precincts Kasich won in 2010. 45% from Strickland
Sure. Go down to the Bd of elections and count, which I don’t have time to do. I’m still mystified why you would think I even remotely negative if early votes (Ds) are down “only” 40%. A week ago, ANY Republican would ave been thrilled with such a number.
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