Posted on 10/27/2012 7:41:57 AM PDT by Perdogg
There's a serious flaw in all of the polls which is misrepresenting the current state of the presidential race. As Dick Morris has pointed out, the pollsters all assume the demographic turnout will be the same as it was in 2008. There are many reasons why this is simply not going to happen. Many African-American preachers have already indicated that Obama hasn't done anything for black people and that his views on gay marriage do not match their own. They will not be lining up the busses to take their parishioners to the polls.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
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They election could be called when the polls close in Pennsylvania. We win! Further, this would depress Democratic voting still going on in the rest of the country. I hope it happens.
This is a pretty nervous election...hopefully (prayerfully) Romney will win in a landslide and bring the Senate with him.
I would be amazed if he carries Pennsylvania. This is the state where last cycle some black panthers would not let white people vote in Philly...remember? Gotta believe that the voting will be cooked in Philly and Pittsburgh by the unions.
Still...if Romney wins big enough, there are some fixes that can’t be done.
Ohio is the big kahuna. 800,000 early voters there...gotta wonder how many of these folks will be allowed to vote twice.
Several well-reasoned points here. But when he says “They will not be lining up the busses to take their parishioners to the polls” - I think that’s a bit too absolute. From what I’ve seen the black community is divided in two camps - those who would vote for Obama simply because of race no matter what, and those who “won’t get fooled again”. Thus it seems to me that the outcome will be determined in part by the relative turnout of these two segments. I will speculate that there will be a lot more motivation to get out and vote amongst those who are sour on Obama vs. the race-based voters.
I’ll call PA for Romney. Democratic turnout is not going to be high as it was in 2008.
Turnout by Republicans and Independents will be a lot heavier particularly in the suburbs and western half of the state.
Romney should carry the Keystone State with Tom Corbett’s winning percentage in 2010 - 54.5%.
the conclusion is correct. If the democrats can’t muster up enough homeless, infirmed, dead, illegals and felons to win a very “blue” state, then they will lose the election.
Don’t agree on PA. If you use RealClearPolitics’ map, with 191 currently for Romney, and Romney gets FL, NC, VA, CO, IA, NV and NH, all of which are possible, Romney gets to 269 without OH, PA, WI or MI. I think he does that plus OH, and WI and PA won’t mean a thing.
PS: There is NO WAY Obama can win if he loses PA and OH. You can’t say that for Romney.
If Romney wins PA it is over. HOWEVER, the lame-stream will not call it for Romney until WELL AFTER the west coast has voted. They’ll attempt to look honest: “We don’t want a repeat of 2000 where Florida was called too soon and people in the western timezone went home because they believed it was too late to make a difference...” What crap. Get ready for it.
Of course, Corbett's popularity has fallen somewhat. Short memories in the Commonwealth. People quickly forget how badly Rendell busted the budget because the Corbett administration turned it around so quickly. Just the optimism his election brought to the business community here had a giant effect.
The problem is Obama’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep.
No one on his side is enthusiastic about him. The old magic is gone. O is a tired incumbent with nothing fresh to offer.
People have already made up their minds.
Good post. That’s exactly what would happen. All of a sudden the corrupt and manipulative media would be trying to appear as champions for integrity in the voting process -— when it in their interests to do so.
Thanks Perdogg.
If Romney/Ryan carry Pennsylvania, this POTUS race will be over relatively early on election day evening!!! The West going for Obama/Biden will deflated like a pricked balloon. Maine, New Hanpshire, Pennsylvania....go Romney/Ryan early;;;;and Obama/Biden are flushed down the toilet into cesspool of obscurity where they both, so rightly belong!!!
No one on his side is enthusiastic about him. The old magic is gone. O is a tired incumbent with nothing fresh to offer.
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I live in a deep blue state and work around a bunch of libs, and you’re right, the thrill is gone. I don’t see any enthusiasm.
I’ve heard a lot about how if Ohio comes down to absentee ballots, the unions will make sure the dems win. Same goes for the almost all of the union-heavy states. You’re right about a big enough win for R&R will be impossible to cheat, at least I think so. As far as the Black Panthers showing up again; I don’t think so. The republicans were very aware of the enthusiasism of the left in ‘08 and also very aware of how weak of candidate McClain was. This time around the enthusiasism is on the side of republicans, the dems have the weak candidate and if the panthers did show their face the cops would show up about the same time as the ambulance. I figure that if DOJ didn’t care about what the panthers did in ‘08, they won’t care about what happens to them in ‘12.
A big AMEN to that!
I am in Cullyfohnia. I post alot of anti-Obama stuff on Facebook. Four years ago, my FB friends were highly defensive of him. Nowadays, it’s relegated to a few who complain about Romney’s tax rate or how Romney wants to take their vaginas away. Maybe 3-4 people tops. The thrill up their legs are gone...they are relegated to bashing Romney, much like Obama has programmed them to do via NLP.
I agree. I know four people well who voted O in 2008 and when I refer to O as “your guy” they all say, he’s not MY guy. And I know that one of them is just not voting. One is calling himself an independent but I think he’ll go RR, one is out of the country and I doubt whether he voted absentee, and the fourth is still drinking the cool aid but says she could be okay with Romney if he wins.
Much has been made of the Black Panthers and their being outside the polling place, but no white people were actually kept from voting. If they went past them, they voted. No one got beaten away from the polls. If some folks felt intimidated and didn't vote, that was their own problem. They had every right to vote, thugs or no.
Republicans, especially conservatives, need to get over the fear that continues to creep in as elections near. Disregard the 'nattering nabobs of negetavism', be they liberal, conservative, or 'moderate', get to the polls and vote Obama OUT!!!
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