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Don't Be Surprised if It's Pennsylvania
American Thinker ^
Posted on 10/27/2012 7:41:57 AM PDT by Perdogg
There's a serious flaw in all of the polls which is misrepresenting the current state of the presidential race. As Dick Morris has pointed out, the pollsters all assume the demographic turnout will be the same as it was in 2008. There are many reasons why this is simply not going to happen. Many African-American preachers have already indicated that Obama hasn't done anything for black people and that his views on gay marriage do not match their own. They will not be lining up the busses to take their parishioners to the polls.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; pa2012; pennsylvania
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To: cumbo78
The PA polls close at 8PM. It is one of the first swing states, or marginally swing states, that will be counted.
61
posted on
10/27/2012 12:35:28 PM PDT
by
AFPhys
((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
To: 9YearLurker
Right now there are reports of super-high early first-day voter turnout in FL. FL voting ends at the same time as PA. If either FL is called early due to a clear landslide, or if PA gives Romney an early significant lead in Romney votes whether called or not, a significant effect could occur as other states with votes not yet cast rapidly redden.
62
posted on
10/27/2012 12:42:02 PM PDT
by
AFPhys
((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
To: AFPhys
Which would give the MSM an incentive to hold the data in spite of the competitive pressures.
To: Perdogg
Many African-American preachers have already indicated that Obama hasn't done anything for black people and that his views on gay marriage do not match their own. They will not be lining up the busses to take their parishioners to the polls.
The idea that this is going to have a big effect on black turnout is wishful thinking on our part. That isn't to say that it couldn't have had an effect, if someone had undertaken a major campaign to point out Obama's queer-loving to blacks, but the occasional pastor here or there isn't getting it done. Not from what I've seen in the early voting statistics here in NC and the anecdotal experience, anyway.
Therefore, I would NOT expect a significant drop-off in black turnout. If it's below 95% of what it was in 2008, I'll be surprised.
64
posted on
10/27/2012 12:59:49 PM PDT
by
MitchellC
(President Evil: Redistribution)
To: 9YearLurker
Let’s hope if that is the scenario maybe Fox would break the embargo.
65
posted on
10/27/2012 1:05:00 PM PDT
by
xp38
To: Alberta's Child
I'll give an explanation for Obama's miserable performance in the first debate, his surprisingly mediocre convention speech, and his frightfully inept (if not worse) response to the Benghazi consulate attack, too. He was told by his own people several months ago that he's going down in flames, and he's basically been mailing it in since then.
I thought the same thing when watching the first debate, but then again I'm wondering if his own people would have the guts to tell him that sort of thing, at least in that way. You'd think they would paint a rosier scenario to him than 'you can't win,' if only to prevent him from doing these sorts of things and hurting their down-ballots. Also, 'you can't win' probably sounds bad coming from guys hired to make sure he wins. I suppose there could have been no second opinions available, though?
It does make a lot of sense out of the VP and 2nd debate performances though - get the base excited with dumb crap, fight to keep the party from splitting apart.
66
posted on
10/27/2012 1:36:06 PM PDT
by
MitchellC
(President Evil: Redistribution // Biden 2016!)
To: Perdogg
IF NH-PA-VA-NC-FLA go Romney the election will be over at 10pm EST election night
67
posted on
10/27/2012 1:41:38 PM PDT
by
MNJohnnie
(Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
To: Friend of the Friendless
PA always disapoints. She is like the the beautiful woman who gives you her phone number and then never answers the phone when you call. I hope we do not have to rely on PA. I think that 'beautiful lady' just might be the icing on the cake this year. I hope you enjoy it.
68
posted on
10/27/2012 5:20:08 PM PDT
by
Ditto
(Nov 2, 2010 -- Partial cleaning accomplished. More trash to remove in 2012)
To: ExCTCitizen
You’re right, we really don’t have any “blue” states, only urban areas that have dense populations dependent on the government. Maryland is the same way. Montgomery, PG and Baltimore counties carry the state.
69
posted on
10/27/2012 5:41:20 PM PDT
by
newnhdad
(Where will you be during the Election Riots of 2012/2013?)
To: MitchellC
The scenario I presented is exactly what happened to Jimmy Carter in 1980, who knew as early as August that he was going to lose badly.
70
posted on
10/27/2012 6:45:16 PM PDT
by
Alberta's Child
("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
To: Fiji Hill; ez
Well here’s somebody else who has. I used to drive through Dushore all the time on my way from State College when I was working a contract with the Leprino Cheese plant in Sayre PA/Waverly NY in the late 1980’s. That’s just beautiful country everywhere North of Hughesville on through to Ithaca. They do get killer fog on US220, though.
71
posted on
10/27/2012 10:08:27 PM PDT
by
FredZarguna
(Now, slow response time on FR, yeah, that depresses me...)
To: FredZarguna
That is beautiful country, indeed. After crossing into New York at Nichols, I passed through Waverly as I headed west toward Ohio.
72
posted on
10/28/2012 6:25:25 AM PDT
by
Fiji Hill
(Deo Vindice!)
To: FredZarguna
Nice to meet you Fred. I lived in all those towns... Dushore, Sayre, and Waverly but all before I was three years old.
73
posted on
10/28/2012 11:47:03 AM PDT
by
ez
(When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.)
To: MitchellC
I was shocked to hear that Skippy thought he won Debate 1. Is that possible?
I wonder, wonder, wonder what was on his mind that night instead of the debate? That was October 3. I wonder what crap was raining on him from Benghazi?
74
posted on
10/28/2012 4:53:23 PM PDT
by
bootless
("If we lose freedom here, there is no place to escape to. This is the last stand on Earth."~RWR)
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