If Jug Ears wins Ohio, I will not be offended by any insults that others may direct at it.
This guy thinks poorly of silver also.
Im pretty sure someone is either right or wrong about this
...By NATE SILVER...
nuff said
As an oldtime FReeper, I am disturbed by the over-confidence (arrogance?) of far too many of my brethren who think R/R are coasting to victory on some kind of wave. You guys need to understand how Obama has HAMMERED Romney with outsourcing and Bain lies in Ohio for 4 months, eroding his position with white blue collar males. Romney has FAILED to counter this onslaught with ads exposing Obama’s stimulus outsourcing, GE links, Wall St. ties and failure to prosecute a SINGLE financial exec from Wall St. or Fannie Mae. The battle has bee one-sided, and the early vote has favored Obama. In addition Obama is engaging is MASSIVE voter fraud in Ohio - not just the Somali shenanigans we see today, but also student from out of state registering to vote from temporary, shared addresses which will NEVER be checked - spiking the Obama vote totals by potentially a thousands or more votes. This is NOT a fair fight, and I do not see R/R fighting dirty on the ground. I am VERY concerned this race is already lost in a fog of fraud in Ohio.
From the signs I see in my little town of Northfield Center, midway between Cleveland and Akron, Romney is not doing well. Yard signs are at least 5/6 to 1 for obama. Disappointing that so many of my neighbors are completely braindead!
Your “concern” for R+R in Ohio is making me cry! /S
Given the classlessness, criminality AND incompetence of this administration...it should be a 50 state sweep and R&R should win by 20 points.
The fact it won't be that way scares me. People are idiots and moochers.
Rasmussen had it tied yesterday, I believe.
Five Thirty Eight is highly partisan and extremely unreliable.
Real Clear Politics, which averages all the polls (the good ones and the not-so-good ones), has the following states listed as tossups:
Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada. Some of these shouldn’t even be close to being tossups in a normal year.
Yeah, a polling firm TCJ came out this week showing Romney leading Ohio. Ras has it tied, IIRC...Mitt and his pathetic opponent are BOTH campaigning, LS our fellow FREEPer has been posting early voting analysis for weeks now, and momentum is clearly with Republicans.
For all these reasons I still think Ohio is in play for Romney and I won’t buy the reasoning of a clearly in-the-tank liberal NY SLIMES hack.
Mitt needs together a van full of Somalis.
Let me explain why Romney will win Ohio by 5 points or more.
Obama won Ohio in 2008 by 4.5 points. McCain was a dud, Obama was new, fresh, and not George Bush. Does anyone think that Obama is in a stronger position today than 2008? No. Next, Obama’s numbers are off in every state that surrounds Ohio. In West Virginia, dem primary voters awarded a convicted felon with 43% of the vote; Kentucky dems gave “uncommitted” 41% of the vote. Obama isn’t even campaigning in Indiana, which he carried by point in 2008. And most believe that Michigan and Pa. are competitive. Are we to believe that the Ohio state line has magically sealed off all of these dropping numbers? No way. Next, the early/absentee numbers are devastating for the dems. There is strong evidence that blacks and college kids aren’t early voting at anywhere close the pace they did in 2008. Several counties with college campuses or large black populations or both are showing a noticeable drop-off in dem voting. In fact, the only county where dems are over-performing Republicans in early voting is Jefferson County, which is in the heart of coal country right smack dab on the West Virginia border. Finally, we should remember that Obama severely underperfomed John Kerry’s 2004 vote total (this underperformance was off-set by a bigger Republican drop-off). The reason? Working white guys did not come out to vote for Obama. Do we really think the white, working-class dems are going to come out in droves for Obama? No. What does this mean: Dems will have a noticeable drop-off across their entire base. Republcians are juiced. Romney will carry Ohio by 5 points, mimimum.
This will show up in the State races.
One great thing about this election is arrogant media hyped clowns like Sliver will be finished after this election. Like Zogby after 2004, Silver name will be a punch line to jokes for the next decade
State polls lag behind national polls by 10-18 days. State by state polls are not done as frequently. Thus the state by state averages Sliver is counting on are still reflecting polls from early Oct. Once has to wonder what happens to Silver when the state by state polls come in line with the national polls over the next week? Silver keeps grasping for straws to validate his personal political opinions. Once this election is over Silver creditability as an analysis is going to be destroyed.
Problem is the polls Silver and the Democrats are siting are all based on a +3 to +9 Democrat over sample.
Weed out the Ohio polling that massively over samples Dems and you have a tie. Ties are bad bad news for incumbents since on election day undecided swing to the challengers