Posted on 10/27/2012 4:46:12 PM PDT by TBBT
For all of the polls that are flying out almost hourly now, there are two common trends emerging: Mitt Romney is leading independents by healthy margins, and who holds the overall lead is entirely dependent on the party split within the sample. As of last night, Romney has a razor thin lead of eight tenths of a point nationally against an average Democratic partisan advantage of 4.4 points. In 2008, Barack Obama won the election by 7.2 points (52.9–45.7) and Democrats outnumbered Republicans by eight points. Compared to the average today, Obama has dropped eight points while only losing 2.6 points of the turnout advantage. That is due entirely to Romney’s strength with independent voters, and reason enough to sound the alarm in Chicago.
But of all the polls that have been released, there are two polls that will have Team Obama waking up in a cold sweat knowing that if these polls are even somewhat accurate they might be on the other end of a dramatic victory on Election Day: The party-affiliation polls from Gallup and Rasmussen.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
You beat me by 10 seconds. LOL!
This is a must-read for the concerned about Ohio crowd.
Ssssshhhhh...don’t wake them from their overconfident complacency.
Scrooge all these polls. Just work for massive turnout for RR and pray the Lord for deep favor.
Nice. Any additional Benghazi fallout will be the coup de grace
and could help to swing the Senate. If the trends continue, even
a magical 7.2% unemploment report won’t save Zero. But everyone must keep working hard till the end.
All I can say, there is one Obama bumper sticker and two Obama signs here in Rahm Emanual’s neighborhood. Along Route 41 in the northern suburbs, there were many RR signs and only two Obama signs. In 2008 it was all Obama. Obama should be very afraid. Very afraid.
I'm sleeping at night now :)
One thing I have learned over the years about politicians is watch what they do not, what they say....
Chicago is scared chit less because by their campaign strategy in the last month since the first debate is one of complete panic throwing anything and everything against the wall to see if something will stick....
Alexrod spent millions of dollars building a false Romney persona that Romney destroyed in 90 minutes....and exposing Obama as a fraud demigod....
Excellent analysis. The most comprehensive to-date. Thanks for the post. Let’s hope the model works as predicated. As you know Nate Silver in the NY Times has a spread of polls to show that Romney never has had a lead in OH and CNN shows Obama up by 4 points against Romney in OH. So this is an interesting analysis.
“even a magical 7.2% unemploment report won’t save Zero”
I was thinking Axelhead would make sure the number came in about 4.3% unemployed and express outrage that anyone would suggest that politics had anything to do with it.
What is coming out about Benghazi puts all that false offense taken by the BLS at any suggestion they could be cooking the books in a new light. If these filth could do what they did to the heroes of Benghazi, cooking the BLS books would be child’s play.
Josh Jordan and Adrian Gray are absolutely amazing, with Jay Cost a close third. Glad they ar on our side.
Does that sound like someone who thinks he has won Ohio?
No national poll or party affiliation poll will spook Chicago. Romney has to pull into the lead in Ohio in at least 1 poll.
“Chicago is scared chit less because by their campaign strategy in the last month since the first debate is one of complete panic throwing anything and everything against the wall to see if something will stick....”
Come on. They are nasty angry leftists. They’d do that, anyway. Even if they win in a landslide, they’d still do something to twist the knife in the back of Romney supporters.
No, the only reason everyone is focusing on OH is it is the only place they can spin any good news for O. O can win OH, lose WI and CO (Both Likely) AND LOSE THE ELECTION.
Do not buy the Ohio hype. It is a media manufactured myth to keep the focus OFF every where else.
One of my best friends, a Democrat, will not vote Republican this year, but he sure as hell isn’t voting for obama either. You’ll see that a lot here in Ohio.
24 years ago I was in south chitown - I drove every red light to get out, and I know ghettos. been there done it. This POS needs to go back home
I am in NYC and there is literally NOTHING for obama anywhere as far as i can tell.
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